TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: WPA INTELLIGENCE

SUBJECT: 2024 GENERAL ELECTION POLL

DATE: SEPTEMBER 21, 2023

Trump's Potential Nomination Reignites Democrats’ Enthusiasm for Biden

A recent poll conducted by WPA Intelligence among verified registered voters suggests that President
Joe Biden's current challenges in generating enthusiasm for his re-election bid could be mitigated by
Republicans nominating former President Donald Trump as their party’s nominee in 2024.

When Democrats were asked to rate their level of enthusiasm for supporting Biden on a scale of 1 to
10, without any mention of a potential Republican challenger, only 24% expressed a "10," indicating
they were "very enthusiastic" about voting to re-elect Biden in 2024.

However, when the respondents were presented with a hypothetical rematch against former
President Trump, the percentage of Democrats reporting "very enthusiastic" levels of support for
Biden more than doubled, jumping from 24% to 55%. One third (33%) of Black voters began by
saying they are very enthusiastic about supporting Biden. Once Trump is introduced was his rival,
that figure jumped 17 percentage points to 50%.

Enthusiasm Voting for Biden Among Democrats in 2024

Level Initial If Trump is the Republican Nominee
1-3 17% 19%
4-6 24% 8%
7-9 33% 18%
10 24% 55%

Biden's largest spikes in enthusiasm came from women, young voters, and minorities when Trump is
introduced as the hypothetical Republican nominee. Nevertheless, as the poll indicates, Biden still
faces major hurdles in his re-election bid, including concerns about inflation and border security.

Harris’ Unpopularity Hinders Democrats

Vice President Kamala Harris might be complicating matters for President Biden due to her
immediate proximity to the presidency, coupled with her own unpopularity. Harris' net favorability
rating (-20%) stands at a full 6 points lower than Biden's (-14%) and is closer to Trump's (-29%), with
only 32% of voters holding a favorable view of her, while 52% view her unfavorably.

Further bolstering the case that Harris does little to help the Democratic ticket is the fact that Biden's
net favorability rating among Black voters (+49%) surpasses Harris’ rating (+42%).
© 2022 WPA Intelligence
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Trump’s Conviction Would Give Biden a 6-Point Lead and Hurt Down-Ballot Republicans

The initial 2024 ballot shows Biden holding a two-point lead over Trump in a hypothetical rematch,
with 43% for Biden, 41% for Trump, 11% undecided, and 5% of voters saying they will probably not
vote in the 2024 election. Trump maintains a 10-point lead among White voters, while trailing Biden
by 59 points among Blacks and 7 points among Hispanics. Both Biden and Trump command strong
support within their respective parties, with leads of 81 and 82 points, respectively. Among
Independents, Biden leads by 6 points, 40% to 34%.

In a subsequent question, the respondents were asked about their voting preference in a rematch if
a jury were to find Donald Trump guilty of a felony in any of his pending criminal cases. In this
scenario, Biden's lead over Trump would expand to 6 points—45% to 39%. This shift is primarily due
to Trump losing support among some Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents, while Biden gains
ground among Hispanics and Independents.

Initial Ballot Post-Conviction Ballot

Donald Trump 41% 39%
Joe Biden 43% 45%
Undecided 11% 10%
Will Not Vote 5% 7%
Difference -2% -6%

Rather than rallying Republicans, a Trump conviction would lead to a 5 percentage-point drop in
support among Republicans. His initial 6-point deficit among Independents would widen into 14-
point gap, while the share of Democrats “definitely” voting for Biden would increase by 3 points.

Trump’s conviction could also lead to some Republicans and Independents—who initially planned to
support—abstaining from voting altogether. Only 2% of Republicans initially said they would not show
up to the polls in a rematch between Biden and Trump in 2024, compared to 3% of Democrats and
6% of Independents. However, if Trump is convicted, the share of Democrats abstaining would
remain at 3%, while the percentage of Republicans and Independents choosing to stay home would
triple to 6% and grow to 10%, respectively.

Initial Ballot (IB) vs. Post-Conviction Ballot (PCB) – By Party

IB GOP PCB GOP IB Dem PCB Dem IB Ind PCB Ind
Total Trump 86 81% 5% 5% 34% 30%
Total Biden 4% 4% 86% 88% 40% 44%
Definitely Trump 62% 61% 2% 2% 21% 21%
Probably Trump 18% 13% 1% 1% 6% 6%
Lean Trump 5% 7% 2% 2% 7% 3%
Hard Undecided 8% 8% 6% 4% 20% 17%
Lean Biden 3% 2% 4% 3% 5% 4%
Probably Biden <1% <1% 6% 7% 6% 3%
Definitely Biden 1% 2% 76% 79% 29% 37%
Will Not Vote 2% 6% 3% 3% 6% 10%

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The down-ballot implications of Trump’s conviction could cost Republicans their House majority.
Among respondents who said initially they planned to support House Republicans in 2024, 6% of
them said they would not participate in the 2024 election in the event that Trump is convicted.

Hypothetical Post-Conviction Ballot

Among Initial 2024 Trump Among 2024 GOP Among 2020
Supporters House and Senate Trump Voters
Voters
Total Trump 92% 82% 82%
Total Biden <1% 4% 4%
Definitely Trump 67% 62% 62%
Probably Trump 15% 12% 12%
Lean Trump 10% 7% 8%
Hard Undecided 6% 9% 9%
Lean Biden <1% 2% 2%
Probably Biden 0% <1% <1%
Definitely Biden 0% 2% 2%
Will Not Vote 2% 6% 5%

Voter Intensity Seems to Favor Biden

A closer examination of the initial ballot results shows that Trump's nomination could galvanize
Democrats and liberal-leaning Independents to support Biden in the 2024 presidential election.

There is a significant disparity in voter enthusiasm and intensity. Among voters who are backing
Trump, 69% say they “definitely” plan to vote for him. Meanwhile, 82% of Biden’s backers say the
same about him if Trump is the nominee. Furthermore, 61% of Republicans said they “definitely”
plan to vote for Trump, while 79% of Democrats said the same for Biden.

Delving Deeper into a Potential Republican Undervote

We set out to investigate if current polling accurately reflects voters' true intentions. Consistent with
recent public polling, our initial Trump vs. Biden ballot indicates a statistical dead-heat. We also
found a 42% to 42% tie in the generic congressional ballot.

To gain a more comprehensive understanding of Republican voters' intentions for the upcoming
election, we presented GOP respondents with a range of voting scenarios beyond the customary
binary choices typically provided in standard ballot surveys.

In our poll, 75% of Republicans plan to vote for Trump and GOP candidates down the ballot.
However, 10% intend to leave the presidential race blank while supporting down-ballot Republicans.
Three percent will support Trump but vote for Democrats down ballot. Additionally, a combined 8%
will vote for Biden or leave the presidential race blank and support down-ballot Democrats, while 4%
will not vote at all. This means only 78% of Republicans plan to vote for Trump if he's the GOP
nominee next year, a significant development since undervotes likely cost Republicans key races
throughout the country in the 2022 midterms.

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Trump’s Unpopularity Mitigates Biden’s Vulnerabilities

President Biden faces significant public disapproval, extending to both his personal favorability and
job performance ratings. His net favorability score stands at -14 percentage points, with only 39% of
voters expressing a favorable view of him, while 54% hold unfavorable opinions. Evaluating his
performance as president, 46% of voters approve, while 54% disapprove.

The polling also reveals significant concerns over Biden's handling of key policy areas. He receives
low marks for his handling of inflation (net -28%), government spending (net -23%), and border
security (net -22%). However, he demonstrates relatively stronger support in jobs and employment
(net -4%) and military readiness (net <1%). Notably, questions regarding his ethical conduct have not
yet significantly hindered his image, with 48% of voters expressing approval of his job performance in
this regard, compared to 52% who disapprove.

Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of…

SEPT 2023 - RVs SEPT 2023 - Independents
Total Total Diff. Total Total Diff.
Fav. Unfav. Fav. Unfav.
Donald Trump 35% 59% -24% 25% 67% -42%
Joe Biden 39% 54% -14% 32% 58% -26%

Despite Biden's low ratings, his chances of securing a second term seem to be bolstered by Trump's
unpopularity. The former president's favorability rating stands at a net -24%, with only 35% holding a
favorable view of him, while 59% view him unfavorably. Among Independent voters, Trump's
favorability rating is even lower at 25%, compared to a striking 67% unfavorable rating, resulting in a
net favorability score of -42%. This places Trump's favorability significantly below Biden's among
Independents. The current president is viewed favorably by 32% and unfavorably by 58% of
Independents, resulting in a net favorability rating of -26%.

Even key segments of Trump’s base have soured on him. Among men without college degrees,
Trump’s favorability rating is net-negative 11%, with 53% viewing him unfavorably while 42% view
him favorably. Among Baby Boomers, Trump’s favorability stands at net -32%, 31% to 63%.
Moreover, 18% of voters who supported him in 2020 view him unfavorably.

“Stolen Election” Claims Hurt Down-Ballot Republican Candidates

If the 2024 election hinges on the belief of a stolen 2020 election, Republican candidates in closely
contested races who align themselves with these claims will face considerable voter backlash. The
electorate holds a strong stance on this matter, with a decisive 31-point margin indicating they are
less likely to support a candidate who asserts that the 2020 election was wrongfully taken from the
former president.

Among undecided voters in the Trump vs. Biden ballot, a substantial 64% express hesitance to
support a candidate espousing this viewpoint. Furthermore, this belief poses a notable obstacle for
Republican House and Senate candidates trying to win over undecided voters, with 51% signaling
they are less likely to vote for a candidate subscribing to this belief, while just 12% say it makes
them more likely.

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Would you say you would be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who claims the 2020
presidential election was stolen from President Trump?
All Independents Undecided Voters on Undecided Voters on the
Voters Trump v. Biden Ballot Generic Congressional
Ballot
Total More Likely 26% 18% 5% 12%
Total Less Likely 57% 65% 64% 51%
Difference -31% -47% -59% -39%

This is consistent with the findings of our 2022 post-mortem and other recent academic analyses
that found voters penalized Republicans who claimed the 2020 election was stolen.

More than Three-Quarters of Undecided 2024 Voters Support Recent Georgia Indictment

A clear majority of voters, including nearly two-thirds of Independents and 29% of Republicans,
believe Trump should have been criminally charged in the Georgia case. Moreover, contrary to
assurances that the indictment and its subsequent mugshot would cause “the Black community to
rally around Trump,” as some Trump surrogates claimed, we found that 90% of Black voters support
the prosecution in Georgia.

As you may know, Donald Trump and his associates were recently indicted for conspiracy to
commit election fraud following the 2020 election in Georgia. However, Donald Trump maintains
his innocence and claims he did nothing wrong. Do you believe Donald Trump should have been
criminally charged, or should not have been criminally charged in this investigation?
TOTAL GOP Dem Ind Black Voters Undecided 2024
Pres. Voters
Should 63% 29% 95% 63% 90% 76%
Charge
Should Not 37% 71% 5% 37% 10% 24%
Charge

Moreover, 76% of voters who said they are undecided as to how they will vote in the 2024
presidential election believe Georgia prosecutors were right to file charges against Trump.

Bottom Line

“Democrats may not be enthusiastic about voting for Joe Biden next year; he remains personally
unpopular, and voters are underwhelmed by his job performance. However, the prospect of facing off
against Donald Trump would inject adrenaline into the Democratic base. Presently, Biden maintains
a slim two-point advantage over Trump in the poll, though the survey suggests this lead may be
somewhat illusory.

“When Republican voters are presented with a broader range of voting options that better reflect
real-world scenarios—such as abstaining from the presidential race but supporting down-ballot GOP
candidates—Trump experiences a notable dip in support.

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“A clear majority of voters, including 29% of Republicans and more than three out of four undecided
voters, believe that Georgia prosecutors were justified in bringing charges against Trump. If a jury
were to convict him on any of the four pending cases, it could send shockwaves through the
Republican Party and Trump's campaign, with a significant faction of GOP voters indicating they
might abstain from the 2024 election altogether. Not only would this hand Biden another four years,
it could also cost Republicans the House and jeopardize gains in the Senate.”

- Amanda Iovino, WPA Principal

About the Poll

WPAi conducted a poll of n=1,005 registered voters nationally. The sample was selected from the
voter file using Registration Based Sampling (RBS) and was stratified by geography, age, race,
partisanship, gender, and vote history to ensure a representative sample. The survey has a margin of
error of ±3.1 at the 95% confidence level. Data was collected via an online panel September 15-19.

About WPAi

WPA Intelligence is a leading provider of survey research, predictive analytics and application-based
data management technology. WPAi clients win at a rate that exceeds the industry standard by
double-digits. WPAi has been the data team behind the RNC voter scores program, the polling/data
team for the 2016 Cruz for President effort, the providers of data strategy for the Las Vegas Raiders
relocation and, most recently, the team behind the analytics and polling for Glenn Youngkin’s 2021
Virginia Gubernatorial campaign.

WPAi has been nationally recognized for providing cutting-edge intelligence to help our clients win.
The
American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) has awarded WPAi with eleven Pollies including
Best in Show. In 2022, CEO Chris Wilson and Principal Amanda Iovino were awarded Pollster of the
Year for our polling and analytics work on the Youngkin for Governor campaign. We have also been
recognized by Campaigns & Elections’ Reed Awards for the Best Use of Data Analytics/Machine
Learning, Best New Research Technique, Best Application of AI Technology to Optimize Targeting,
and Best Data Analytics Solutions.

The cornerstone of WPAi is our personnel. Our methodological approaches are dictated by advanced
statistical guidelines as determined by our PhD-led team of researchers and data scientists. Our
team has consistently been recognized as some of the best in the industry: CEO Chris Wilson was
named Campaigns & Elections’ Technology Leader of the Year; Amanda Iovino (Principal), Matt Knee
(Vice President and Director of Analytics), Trevor K. Smith, Ph.D. (Chief Research Officer), and Conor
Maguire (Principal and Managing Director), each have been recognized among the American
Association of Political Consultants (AAPC)’s prestigious 40 Under 40 list.

Disclosure

This poll was conducted independently by WPA Principal Amanda Iovino as a part of the firm’s
ongoing public opinion research studies. WPA Intelligence’s CEO, Chris Wilson, is an advisor to the
pro-Ron DeSantis PAC Never Back Down. The poll was not sponsored by Never Back Down or any of
its affiliates.

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