After being swept in Philadelphia, the Dodgers probably wish ...

Dodgers Reeling

Ranger Rules

Nats On Fumes

Mets Mashing At Home

Here are the early bets I made after the NFL schedule release ...

Jack Kochanowicz makes his major league debut. He posted a 1.85 ERA in 34 innings in AA. Seattle has a favorable match-up but have only been hitting .199 with a .674 OPS against righties on the road over the last month. Luis Castillo owns a 4.59 road ERA, and this should be one of his easier road outings thus far, as the Angels are hitting .214 with a .624 OPS over their last seven days. In the first game of a road series, the total has gone under in six of Seattle’s last seven, with one push.

The Cubs have outscored the Orioles 13-2 in the first two games of this series. Look for Baltimore, which leads MLB in OPS (.772), to avoid the sweep at home behind Albert Suarez. He owns a 1.50 ERA over five home starts. Chicago lefty Justin Steele also is in fine form, but Baltimore's offense is too good to get shut down for a third straight day.

Try to identify where a team might be more motivated than a typical day (although at this point in the season, I think all teams are worn down -- hence some weird results pre-break). That would sure seem to be the case here for the Orioles to avoid a home sweep, which hasn't happened to them since 2022. Starting pitcher Albert Suarez is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA at home, and no Cody Bellinger for the Cubbies. Bellinger is not having the season he had in 2023 but still a big loss and had a very strong first two games at Camden Yards -- he's headed to the IL with a fractured finger. There goes the trade market.

Tanner Houck is coming off two subpar outings but he has an above average strikeout rate and a chase rate in the 87th percentile. That bodes well against an Oakland lineup that's averaged 13 strikeouts over the past three games. (Nick Pivetta fanned 10 A's on Wednesday). Oakland has the highest K rate on the road. In April, Houck struck out 10 Oakland batters in six innings.

San Francisco has dipped to three games below .500, but still remains a strong home team on the year at 26-20. Although the Blue Jays have won three of four games, it is still a tough spot for them today. It’s their sixth game in a row on a West Coast road trip with an early start time. Take the Giants with the Blue Jays coming off an abnormal ten runs yesterday, which matched a season high.

The next time Paul Skenes pitches in a game after today will likely be in Arlington for Tuesday's All-Star Game, where we are quite sure he will be featured for at least an inning. Skenes has proven as good as advertised with his 2.12 ERA thru ten starts, and now he's working into the 8th inning in recent outings. Opponent scorelines are telling; Skenes has only allowed five runs across his last five starts, but the flip side is the Pirates' offense, save for a couple of unexpected explosions in recent weeks, remains decidedly pedestrian. Milwaukee's recently-added Aaron Civale likely hands off a close, low-scoring game to his bullpen, and another Skenes-influenced scoreline stays low this afternoon in Brew Town. Play Pirates-Brewers "Under"

Milwaukee is 23 and 7 in their last 30 games at home after a 5-7 start. They go for their 10th series win at home but they have Paul Skenes in the way. Skenes, a rookie, is going to the All-Star game for good reason. He's got 11.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. The mismatch here is the pitcher for the Brewers, Aaron Civale, who gives up a ton of runs against Skenes who doesn't give up anything. Pirates win first five.

The Baltimore Orioles look to avoid the sweep, knowing they are 7-3 in game three of a series off a loss. Albert Suarez has pitched better at home (1.50 ERA, .212 average against) than on the road (3.31 ERA, .248 average against) this season. The Chicago Cubs will send a lefty to the hill for the second straight game. Justin Steele is coming off a gem, throwing a complete game while allowing just two hits and one earned run. The Cubs are just 4-9 when Steele is on the bump despite winning three of his previous four starts. Baltimore went 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position on Wednesday, and they are ranked third in OPS (.786) vs. left-handed pitchers.

Paul Skenes has a 2.12 ERA and has only allowed one or zero earned runs in six of his last nine starts. The Brewers have never seen him and for someone with this kind of sick stuff that means a very difficult situation. Plus, he's gone over 100 pitches in back-to-back games and it's possible the Pirates will want to keep his workload down in this one. That means something like five innings and not enough times for the Brewers to get to him. I'm expecting zero runs allowed.