The total continues to drop. Tanner Gordon has had one road start and pitched very well, in a small sample size. Sean Manaea has only allowed one run in his last three starts. Colorado has been hitting .226 with a .683 OPS over its last seven days while the Mets have been hitting .283 with a .920 OPS against righties at home over the last month. Something still seems off with the total being juiced more towards the under.

If you went on a worldwide cruise at the start of June, and couldn't access any MLB info for the next six weeks, and returned this morning to find out the Mets were actually sitting in an NL wild card spot, you might think you were in some sort of alternative universe. But the Mets have indeed roared to life, and threaten to take more momentum into the All-Star break with the lowly Rockies into Citi Field this weekend. Sean Manaea has been NY's sharpest pitcher lately, with a 1.00 ERA as the Mets have won in his last three starts. Meanwhile, the Rocks close their eyes and risk Tanner Gordon (7.11 ERA) making his second MLB start. Play Mets on Run Line

I must give credit to Sean Manaea who has been one of my favorite pitchers to pick on/fade on a regular basis. However the 32 year old southpaw has put together a really solid season. With that being said, I believe he's being a bit overvalued here, even in a good matchup. Manaea has been held under 7 Ks in 14/17 starts. He's also facing a Rockies lineup who certainly aren't good, although the "strength" of their team is facing southpaws. Additionally my model has a sizable edge on Manaea's under. I also like fading his outs line at 17.5.

Mets feasted on the Nats staff, which is far better than what Colorado is bringing to town. Tanner Gordon? Okay. COL is 4th worst ATS team on road, they are 29th in road OPS (.638) and they are hitting the skids lately, They have lost 4 of 5, all of those games by 6 runs or more. Sean Manaea has been a stud for the Mets lately; they have won 4 of his last 5 starts, with a 1.57 ERA and .485 OPS allowed, yielding just 1 HR in that span. Mets have won 5 of 6, with 4 of those wins by 2 runs or more.