United States Senate election in Arizona, 2024

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← 2022
U.S. Senate, Arizona
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 1, 2024
Primary: July 30, 2024 General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic DDHQ and The Hill: Likely Democratic Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
U.S. Senate, Arizona U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th Arizona elections, 2024 U.S. Congress elections, 2024 U.S. Senate elections, 2024 U.S. House elections, 2024 Arizona U.S. Senate raceCalifornia U.S. Senate raceConnecticut U.S. Senate raceDelaware U.S. Senate raceFlorida U.S. Senate raceHawaii U.S. Senate raceIndiana U.S. Senate raceMaine U.S. Senate raceMaryland U.S. Senate raceMassachusetts U.S. Senate raceMichigan U.S. Senate raceMinnesota U.S. Senate raceMississippi U.S. Senate raceMissouri U.S. Senate raceMontana U.S. Senate raceNebraska U.S. Senate raceNevada U.S. Senate raceNew Jersey U.S. Senate raceNew Mexico U.S. Senate raceNew York U.S. Senate raceNorth Dakota U.S. Senate raceOhio U.S. Senate racePennsylvania U.S. Senate raceRhode Island U.S. Senate raceTennessee U.S. Senate raceTexas U.S. Senate raceUtah U.S. Senate raceVermont U.S. Senate raceVirginia U.S. Senate raceWashington U.S. Senate raceWest Virginia U.S. Senate raceWisconsin U.S. Senate raceWyoming U.S. Senate raceSubmit

Ruben Gallego (D), Kari Lake (R), and Eduardo Quintana (G) are running in the general election for United States Senate in Arizona on November 5, 2024.

Political observers including Simone Pathe of CNN, Jonathan Weisman of The New York Times, Sara Dorn of Forbes, and Lucas Wright of USA Today say this election will be among the closest for U.S. Senate nationwide. Recent statewide elections in Arizona have been competitive — of the 23 statewide elections held in Arizona between 2018 and 2022, Republicans won 12 and Democrats won 11.

As of September 27, 2024, the five most recent polls Ballotpedia tracked include two showing Gallego with a lead — one showing Gallego leading 56% to 42% with a 3.0% margin of error and one showing Gallego leading 54% to 44% with a 3.8% margin of error. Two polls showed Gallego with an apparent lead — one showing Gallego with 47% support to Lake's 41% with a 4.4% margin of error and one showing Gallego with 49% support and Lake with 43% support with a 4.4% margin of error. The fifth poll showed the two about even, with Gallego at 47% and Lake at 45% with a 3.0% margin of error. As of July 2024, Gallego raised $32,349,690, and Lake raised $10,371,320. As of October 2, 2024, Decision Desk HQ and The Hill viewed the election as Likely Democratic, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Lean Democratic, and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales believed it was Tilt Democratic.

Gallego is a member of the U.S. House, former state legislator, and a U.S. Marine Corps veteran. Gallego says he is running "to defend our Democracy, hold corrupt politicians accountable, and preserve a woman’s right to have an abortion." Gallego says he "took advantage of the things Democrats championed and the people of our country provided: Pell Grants and school lunch programs to name two," and that he says his political and military service as an opportunity to repay that debt.

Lake is a former newscaster who ran for governor in 2022. Lake says she believes in "secure borders, energy independence, safe streets, education not indoctrination, pushing back against the radical Biden agenda, and preserving the western heritage that makes Arizona special." Lake says she is running because of "a socialist Democrat Party that has lost touch with reality, a corrupt president who has lost touch with his brain, and we're sick of the swamp putting the rest of the world first."

The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. Senate in 2025.

Thirty-four of 100 seats are up for election, including one special election. Of the seats up for election in 2024, Democrats hold 19, Republicans hold 11, and independents hold four. As of September 2024, eight members of the U.S. Senate had announced they were not running for re-election, more than in any year since 2012.

Incumbent Kyrsten Sinema (Independent) is not running for re-election. This is one of eight open races for the U.S. Senate in 2024 where an incumbent is not running for re-election. Across the country, four Democrats, two Republicans, and two Independents are not running for re-election, more than in any year since 2012. In 2022, six Senators did not seek re-election, including one Democrat and five Republicans.

For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

• United States Senate election in Arizona, 2024 (July 30 Democratic primary)
• United States Senate election in Arizona, 2024 (July 30 Republican primary)

Election news

This section includes a timeline of events leading up to the election. The timeline is updated regularly as polling, debates, and other noteworthy events occur.

• Sept. 27, 2024: Suffolk University released results from a poll it had conducted on behalf of USA Today between Sept. 21 and Sept. 24. Of the 500 likely voters surveyed, 47% planned to vote for Gallego, 41% planned to vote for Lake, and 3% planned to vote for Quintana. The poll reported a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

• Sept. 26, 2024:
  • Fox News published results from a poll it had commissioned from Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. Of the 1,021 registered voters surveyed between Sept. 20 and Sept. 24, 56% said they would vote for Gallego and 42% said they would vote for Lake. The poll reported a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points. Relative to the previous Fox News poll, conducted in August, Lake was up one percentage point and support for Gallego had not changed.
  • Marist College published results from a poll it conducted between Sept. 19 and Sept. 24. Of the 1,264 likely voters surveyed, 54% said they would support Gallego and 44% said they would support Lake. The poll reported a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

• Sept. 25, 2024: Rasmussen Reports published results from a poll it had conducted alongside American Thinker. Of the 1,030 likely voters polled between Sept. 19 and Sept. 22, 47% said they would vote for Gallego and 45% said they would vote for Lake. The poll reported a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points. Relative to Rasmussen Reports' previous poll, conducted in August, Gallego was down one percentage point and Lake was up five.

• Click to expand a timeline of earlier election updates
  • Sept. 23, 2024: The New York Times published results from a poll it had commissioned from Siena College. Of the 713 likely voters surveyed between Sept. 17 and Sept. 21, 49% said they would vote for Gallego, 43% said they would vote for Lake, and 8% were undecided or backed a different candidate. The poll reported a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Relative to the previous New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in August, support for Lake was up by two percentage points and support for Gallego was unchanged.

  • Sept. 19, 2024: Emerson College published results from a poll it had conducted of 868 likely voters between September 15 and September 18. The poll found that 48% of respondents planned to vote for Gallego, 42% planned to vote for Lake, and 10% were undecided or backed a different candidate. The poll reported a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. Relative to Emerson College's previous poll, conducted in August, support for Gallego was down one percentage point and support for Lake was unchanged.

  • Sept. 12, 2024: The Trafalgar Group concluded a poll of 1,088 likely voters it had started fielding on September 11, 2024. The poll found that 47% planned to vote for Gallego, 43% planned to vote for Lake, and 10% were undecided or would support a different candidate. The poll reported a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

  • Sept. 4, 2024: CNN released results from a poll it had commissioned from SSRS. Of the 682 registered voters surveyed between Aug. 23 and Aug. 29, 47% said they would vote for Gallego, 44% said they would vote for Lake, and 8% were undecided or said they would vote for a different candidate. The poll reported a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points.

  • Aug. 31, 2024: InsiderAdvantage released results from a poll it had conducted between Aug. 29 and Aug. 31. Of the 800 likely voters surveyed, 49% said they would vote for Gallego, 45% said they would vote for Lake, and 6% were undecided or planned to vote for a different candidate. The poll reported a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points.

  • Aug. 29, 2024: Emerson College released results from a poll it had conducted on behalf of Nexstar Media and The Hill. Of the 720 likely voters surveyed between Aug. 25 and Aug. 28, 49% said they planned to vote for Gallego, 42% said they planned to vote for Lake, and 9% were undecided or planned to vote for a different candidate. The poll reported a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. Relative to Emerson's July 2024 poll, Gallego was up three percentage points and support for Lake was unchanged.

  • Aug. 28, 2024:
    • Noble Predictive Insights released results of a poll it conducted. Of the 1,003 registered voters polled between Aug. 12 and Aug. 16, 47% said they would vote for Gallego, 40% said they would vote for Lake, and 13% were undecided or said they would vote for another candidate. The poll reported a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Compared to the previous Noble Predictive Insights poll, conducted in May 2024, Gallego was up one percentage point and Lake was up four percentage points.
    • Fox News released results of a poll it had commissioned from Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. Of the 1,014 registered voters polled between Aug. 23 and Aug. 26, 56% said they would vote for Gallego, 41% said they would vote for Lake, and 3% were undecided or said they would support a different candidate. The poll reported a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points.

  • Aug. 17, 2024: The New York Times released results of a poll it had conducted with Siena College. Of the 677 registered voters surveyed between Aug. 8 and Aug. 15, 2024, 49% said they would vote for Gallego, 41% said they would vote for Lake, and 10% were undecided or planned to back a different candidate. The poll reported a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Compared to the previous New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted in April and May 2024, Gallego was up four percentage points and support for Lake was unchanged.

  • Aug. 15, 2024: The National Journal published results from a poll Peak Insights conducted on behalf of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Of the 800 likely voters surveyed between Jul. 31 and Aug. 5, 2024, 46% said they would vote for Gallego, 46% said they would vote for Lake, and 8% were undecided or said they would vote for a different candidate. The poll reported a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points.

  • Aug. 8, 2024: HighGround Public Affairs consultants released results of a poll it had conducted. Of the 500 registered voters surveyed between Jul. 31 and Aug. 5, 2024, 50% said they would vote for Gallego, 39% said they would vote for Lake, and 12% said they were undecided or would vote for a different candidate. The poll reported a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. This was the first poll Ballotpedia tracked to show Gallego with a lead outside the margin of error since May 2024.

  • Aug. 2, 2024: VoteVets spent $200,000.00 on radio advertising supporting Gallego.

  • Aug. 1, 2024:
    • The LCV Victory Fund spent $178,125.00 on canvassing supporting Gallego.
    • VoteVets spent $100,000.00 on digital advertising supporting Gallego.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Arizona

The following candidates are running in the general election for U.S. Senate Arizona on November 5, 2024.

		Candidate
		Ruben Gallego (D)
		Kari Lake (R)
		Eduardo Quintana (G)
		Jannie Prosser (R) (Write-in)
		Sarah Williams (L) (Write-in)
		Christopher Beckett (Independent) (Write-in)
		David Bozic (Independent) (Write-in)
		Shawn Petty (Independent) (Write-in)
		Benjamin Rodriguez (Independent) (Write-in)
		Steven Cavin Sanders (Independent) (Write-in)

---

	There are no incumbents in this race.
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Richard Grayson (No party preference)

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Ruben Gallego advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on July 30, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Ruben Gallego	100.0	498,927

---

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 498,927
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Alexander Keller (D)

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Kari Lake defeated Mark Lamb, Elizabeth Reye, and Dustin Williams in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on July 30, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Kari Lake	55.3	409,339
		Mark Lamb	39.5	292,888
		Elizabeth Reye	5.2	38,208
		Dustin Williams (Write-in)	0.0	184

---

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 740,619
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Leonard Fulcher (R)
• Robert Walker (R)
• Alan White (R)
• Connie Moreno (R)
• Christopher Berschauer (R)
• Brian Wright (R)

Green primary election

Green primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Eduardo Quintana defeated Mike Norton and Arturo Hernandez in the Green primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on July 30, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Eduardo Quintana (Write-in)	49.5	282
		Mike Norton	31.6	180
		Arturo Hernandez	18.9	108

---

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 570
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Sarah Williams (L)

Voting information

See also: Voting in Arizona

Election information in Arizona: Nov. 5, 2024, election.

What is the voter registration deadline?

• In-person: Oct. 7, 2024
• By mail: Received by Oct. 7, 2024
• Online: Oct. 7, 2024

Is absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

Yes

What is the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

• In-person: Oct. 25, 2024
• By mail: Received by Oct. 25, 2024
• Online: Oct. 25, 2024

What is the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

• In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
• By mail: Received by Nov. 5, 2024

Is early voting available to all voters?

Yes

What are the early voting start and end dates?

Oct. 9, 2024 to Nov. 1, 2024

Are all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, is a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When are polls open on Election Day?

6:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Ruben Gallego

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

• U.S. House (Assumed office: 2015)
• Arizona House of Representatives (2010–2014)

Biography:  Gallego obtained a bachelor's degree from Harvard University. After serving four years in the U.S. Marine Corps, Gallego worked as a public affairs consultant before entering elected politics.

---

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

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Gallego said he was running "because Arizona is at a crossroads. Protecting abortion access, housing affordability, our water supply — there is so much at stake."

---

Gallego said Lake believed abortion was wrong and that she had supported the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

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Gallego said he supported increasing funding for Border Patrol hiring and equipment to stop illegal crossings as well as expansion of existing border crossings to handle more traffic. Gallego said he would "tell Washington politicians to stop coming to Arizona for your BS political stunts."

---

Show sources

Sources: Ruben Gallego 2024 campaign website, "Home page," accessed August 26, 2024; Ruben Gallego 2024 campaign website, "On the Issues," accessed August 26, 2024, YouTube, "Gallego for Arizona: Kari Lake's 'Great Law' on August 13, 2024," accessed August 26, 2024; YouTube, "Gallego for Arizona: Fail to Plan on August 16, 2024," accessed August 26, 2024; Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, "GALLEGO, Ruben," accessed August 26, 2024; Ruben Gallego 2024 campaign website, "Home page," accessed August 26, 2024

Kari Lake

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Lake received a bachelor's degree from the University of Iowa. Her professional experience included working as a news anchor for Fox 10 News Phoenix.

---

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

---

On immigration, Lake said she would support finishing the border wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and enforcing immigration laws.

---

Lake said she would "vote to open our oil reserves to exploration, cut prices at the pump and on your utility bill, and expand exports once again."

---

Regarding the economy, Lake's campaign website said she would "work to limit the growth of the federal budget until we return to the point where annual tax revenues are higher than what we're spending."

---

Lake said she would "make the development and construction of a system to deliver a new source of fresh water to Arizona and the West one of her major priorities."

---

Show sources

Sources: Kari Lake campaign website, "10 Point Plan to Secure the Border," accessed May 16, 2024; Kari Lake campaign website, "Make America Energy Dominant," accessed May 16, 2024; Kari Lake campaign website, "Cut Inflation & Reduce the Deficit," accessed May 16, 2024; Kari Lake campaign website, "Water for the West," accessed May 16, 2024; Kari Lake 2024 campaign website, "About," accessed May 16, 2024

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race has completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Ballotpedia is seeking 100 percent participation so voters can learn more about all the candidates on their ballots.

You can ask candidates in this race to fill out the survey by clicking their names below:

• Eduardo Quintana
• Kari Lake
• Ruben Gallego
• Shawn Petty
• Steven Cavin Sanders

Campaign advertisements

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.

Ruben Gallego

September 24, 2024

September 18, 2024

September 6, 2024

View more ads here:

• YouTube
• Facebook

Kari Lake

September 20, 2024

September 6, 2024

September 5, 2024

View more ads here:

• YouTube
• Facebook

Debates and forums

If you are aware of any debates, candidate forums, or other similar events where multiple candidates in this race participated, please email us.

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals. The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times." For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

Below we provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation. We only report polls for which we can find a margin of error or credibility interval.

United States Senate, Arizona: 2024 general election polls
Poll	Date	Gallego	Lake	Quintana	Undecided/Other	Margin of error	Sample size	Sponsor
Suffolk University	Sept. 21–24, 2024	47%	41%	3%	10%	±4.4%	500 LV	USA Today
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	Sept. 20–24, 2024	56%	42%	--	2%	±3.0%	1,021 RV	Fox News
Marist College	Sept. 19–24, 2024	54%	44%	--	2%	±3.8%	1,264 LV	N/A
Rasmussen Reports	Sept. 19–22, 2024	47%	45%	--	8%	±3.0%	1,030 LV	American Thinker
Siena College	Sept. 17–21, 2024	49%	43%	--	8%	±4.4%	713 LV	The New York Times

Click [show] to see older poll results
Poll	Date	Gallego	Lake	Quintana	Undecided/Other	Margin of error	Sample size	Sponsor
Emerson College	Sept. 15–18, 2024	48%	42%	--	10%	±3.3%	868 LV	Nexstar Media/The Hill
The Trafalgar Group	Sept. 11–12, 2024	47%	43%	--	10%	±2.9%	1,088 LV	N/A
InsiderAdvantage	Aug. 29–31, 2024	49%	45%	--	6%	±3.0%	800 LV	N/A
SSRS	Aug. 23–29, 2024	47%	44%	--	8%	±4.8%	682 RV	CNN
Emerson College	Aug. 25–28, 2024	49%	42%	--	9%	±3.6%	720 LV	Nexstar Media/The Hill
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	Aug. 23–26, 2024	56%	41%	--	3%	±3.0%	1,014 RV	Fox News
Rasmussen Reports	Aug. 13–17, 2024	48%	40%	--	12%	±3.0%	1,187 LV	NumbersUSA
Noble Predictive Insights	Aug. 12–16, 2024	47%	40%	--	13%	±3.1%	1,003 RV	N/A
Siena College	Aug. 8–15, 2024	49%	41%	--	10%	±4.4%	677 RV	The New York Times
Peak Insights	Jul. 31 – Aug. 5, 2024	46%	46%	--	8%	±3.0%	800 LV	National Republican Senatorial Committee
HighGround Public Affairs Consultants	Jul. 31 – Aug. 5, 2024	50%	39%	--	12%	±4.4%	500 RV	N/A
Emerson College	Jul. 22–23, 2024	46%	42%	--	12%	±3.4%	800 RV	Nexstar Media/The Hill
Public Policy Polling	Jul. 17–20, 2024	49%	42%	--	9%	±3.6%	736 RV	Clean and Prosperous America PAC
J.L. Partners	Jul. 10–11, 2024	43%	44%	3%	9%	±4.3%	513 LV	Kari Lake
Rasmussen Reports	Jul. 5–12, 2024	44%	41%	--	15%	±3.0%	1,101 LV	Heartland Institute
YouGov	Jul. 4–12, 2024	48%	41%	--	11%	±3.9%	900 RV	The Times/SAY24
Remington Research	Jun. 29 – Jul. 1, 2024	47%	47%	--	6%	±4.0%	638 LV	American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers
North Star Opinion Research	Jun. 17–20, 2024	39%	38%	9%	13%	±4.0%	600 RV	American Greatness
Emerson College	Jun. 13–18, 2024	45%	41%	--	14%	±3.0%	1,000 RV	Nexstar Media/The Hill
Rasmussen Reports	Jun. 11–13, 2024	44%	41%	--	15%	±4.0%	750 LV	N/A
Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research	May 28 – Jun. 4, 2024	48%	45%	--	6%	±4.0%	600 LV	AARP
YouGov	May 10–16, 2024	49%	36%	--	15%	±3.6%	1,183 RV	CBS News
Noble Predictive Insights	May 7–14, 2024	46%	36%	--	19%	±3.1%	1,003 RV	N/A
The Cook Political Report	May 6–13, 2024	46%	41%	--	13%	±4.3%	527 LV	N/A
Siena College	Apr. 28 – May 9, 2024	45%	41%	--	14%	±4.2%	626 RV	The New York Times
Emerson College	Apr. 25–29, 2024	45%	43%	--	12%	±3.0%	1,000 RV	Nexstar Media/The Hill
Emerson College	Mar. 12–15, 2024	44%	40%	--	16%	±3.0%	1,000 RV	Nexstar Media/The Hill
Emerson College	Feb. 16–19, 2024	46%	39%	--	15%	±3.0%	1,000 RV	Nexstar Media/The Hill
Noble Predictive Insights	Feb. 6–13, 2024	47%	37%	--	16%	±3.1%	1,002 RV	N/A
Noble Predictive Insights	Jul. 13–17, 2023	45%	35%	--	20%	±3.1%	1,000 RV	N/A
OH Predictive Insights	Jan. 31 – Feb. 9, 2023	43%	33%	--	24%	±3.1%	1,000 RV	N/A

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

• Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
• Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
• Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.
• Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Arizona, 2024
Race tracker	Race ratings
	October 1, 2024	September 24, 2024	September 17, 2024	September 10, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill	Likely Democratic	Likely Democratic	Likely Democratic	Likely Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Tilt Democratic	Tilt Democratic	Tilt Democratic	Tilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.

• Ruben Gallego
• Kari Lake

General election endorsements
Endorser	Ruben Gallego	Kari Lake
Government officials
U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly (D)  source	✔
U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R)  source		✔
U.S. Rep. Debbie Lesko (R)  source		✔
Gov. Katie Hobbs (D)  source	✔
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D)  source	✔
Mayor, Mesa John Giles  source	✔
Member, Mesa City Council Julie Spilsbury  source	✔
Individuals
Hillary Clinton  source	✔
Fmr. Gov. Doug Ducey  source		✔
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Newt Gingrich  source		✔
Former President Donald Trump  source		✔
Organizations
Arizona Police Association  source 1 source 2	✔
Club for Growth  source		✔
Democratic Majority for Israel PAC  source	✔
Everytown for Gun Safety  source	✔
March for Our Lives  source	✔

Election spending

Campaign finance

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Ruben Gallego	Democratic Party	$32,349,690	$25,433,424	$8,192,841	As of July 10, 2024
Kari Lake	Republican Party	$10,371,230	$8,290,901	$2,080,329	As of July 10, 2024
Jannie Prosser	Republican Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Eduardo Quintana	Green Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Sarah Williams	Libertarian Party	$14,715	$8,865	$5,850	As of July 10, 2024
Christopher Beckett	Independent	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
David Bozic	Independent	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Shawn Petty	Independent	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Benjamin Rodriguez	Independent	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Steven Cavin Sanders	Independent	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election. *** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.

If available, satellite spending reports by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and OpenSecrets.org are linked below. FEC links include totals from monthly, quarterly, and semi-annual reports. OpenSecrets.org compiles data from those reports as well as 24- and 48-hour reports from the FEC.

Details about satellite spending of significant amounts and/or reported by media are included below those links. The amounts listed may not represent the total satellite spending in the election. To notify us of additional satellite spending, email us.

By candidate	By election
Ruben Gallego Kari Lake	Open Secrets Federal Election Commission

Note: As of September 27, 2024, Eduardo Quintana (G) had not registered as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission.

Spending news

• The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees spent $450,000.00 on a digital ad buy supporting Gallego on June 7, 2024.

• LCV Victory Fund
  • The group spent $178,125.00 on canvassing supporting Gallego on August 1, 2024.
  • The group spent $534,375.00 on canvassing supporting Gallego on July 9, 2024.
  • The group spent $990,000.00 on a television ad buy supporting Gallego on June 4, 2024.

• Moms for Safe Neighborhoods
  • The group spent $157,460.10 on ads opposing Gallego on June 5, 2024.
  • The group spent $636,755.10 on ads opposing Gallego on May 31, 2024.

• Somos PAC spent $737,248.70 on a media buy supporting Gallego on June 4, 2024.

• VoteVets
  • The group spent $200,000.00 on a radio advertising buy supporting Gallego on August 2, 2024.
  • The group spent $100,000.00 on a digital advertising buy supporting Gallego on August 1, 2024.
  • The group spent $800,000.00 on a television advertising buy supporting Gallego on July 23, 2024.
  • The group spent $497,475.00 on a television advertising buy supporting Gallego on June 10, 2024.
  • The group spent $200,000.00 on a radio advertising buy supporting Gallego on June 4, 2024.

• WinSenate
  • The group spent $105,263.00 on a digital advertising buy opposing Lake on July 26, 2024.
  • The group spent $560,434.00 on a digital advertising buy opposing Lake on July 12, 2024.
  • The group spent $439,566.00 on a digital advertising buy supporting Gallego on July 12, 2024.

• Women Speak Out PAC
  • The group spent $134,436.00 on mailers opposing Gallego on July 29, 2024.
  • The group spent $276,787.20 on mailers opposing Gallego on July 5, 2024.

Election analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.

• Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
• Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
• State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
• Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.

• Presidential elections
• Statewide elections
• State partisanship
• Demographics

See also: Presidential voting trends in Arizona and The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Cook PVI by congressional district

Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Arizona, 2024
District	Incumbent	Party	PVI
Arizona's 1st	David Schweikert	Republican	R+2
Arizona's 2nd	Eli Crane	Republican	R+6
Arizona's 3rd	Ruben Gallego	Democratic	D+24
Arizona's 4th	Greg Stanton	Democratic	D+2
Arizona's 5th	Andy Biggs	Republican	R+11
Arizona's 6th	Juan Ciscomani	Republican	R+3
Arizona's 7th	Raul Grijalva	Democratic	D+15
Arizona's 8th	Debbie Lesko	Republican	R+10
Arizona's 9th	Paul Gosar	Republican	R+16

2020 presidential results by 2024 congressional district lines

2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2024 district lines, Arizona
District	Joe Biden	Donald Trump
Arizona's 1st	50.1%	48.6%
Arizona's 2nd	45.3%	53.2%
Arizona's 3rd	74.5%	23.9%
Arizona's 4th	54.2%	43.9%
Arizona's 5th	41.0%	57.4%
Arizona's 6th	49.3%	49.2%
Arizona's 7th	65.6%	32.9%
Arizona's 8th	42.5%	56.1%
Arizona's 9th	36.4%	62.2%

2012-2020

How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:

County-level voting pattern categories
Democratic
Status	2012	2016	2020
Solid Democratic	D	D	D
Trending Democratic	R	D	D
Battleground Democratic	D	R	D
New Democratic	R	R	D
Republican
Status	2012	2016	2020
Solid Republican	R	R	R
Trending Republican	D	R	R
Battleground Republican	R	D	R
New Republican	D	D	R

Following the 2020 presidential election, 61.8% of Arizonans lived in Maricopa County, the state's one New Democratic county, which voted for the Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in 2020 after voting for the Republican in the preceding two cycles, and 20.0% lived in one of 10 Solid Republican counties. Overall, Arizona was New Democratic, having voted for Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Joe Biden (D) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Arizona following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.

Arizona county-level statistics, 2020
New Democratic	1	61.8%
Solid Republican	10	20.0%
Solid Democratic	4	18.2%
Total voted Democratic	5	80.0%
Total voted Republican	10	20.0%

Historical voting trends

Arizona presidential election results (1900-2020)

• 9 Democratic wins
• 19 Republican wins

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	N/A	N/A	N/A	D	D	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	R	R	R	R	R	D

This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.

U.S. Senate elections

See also: List of United States Senators from Arizona

The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Arizona.

U.S. Senate election results in Arizona
Race	Winner	Runner up
2022	51.4%	46.5%
2020	51.2%	48.8%
2018	50.0%	47.6%
2016	53.7%	40.8%
2012	49.2%	46.1%
Average	52.7	43.6

Gubernatorial elections

See also: Governor of Arizona

The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Arizona.

Gubernatorial election results in Arizona
Race	Winner	Runner up
2022	50.3%	49.6%
2018	56.0%	41.8%
2014	53.4%	41.6%
2010	54.3%	42.4%
2006	62.6%	35.4%
Average	54.5	41.3

See also: Party control of Arizona state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Arizona's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Arizona
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	1	3	4
Republican	0	6	6
Independent	1	0	1
Vacancies	0	0	0
Total	2	9	11

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Arizona's top three state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in Arizona, May 2024
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Katie Hobbs
Secretary of State	Adrian Fontes
Attorney General	Kris Mayes

State legislature

Arizona State Senate

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	14
	Republican Party	16
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		30

Arizona House of Representatives

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	28
	Republican Party	31
	Other	0
	Vacancies	1
Total		60

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until 2024.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Governor	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D
Senate	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

The table below details demographic data in Arizona and compares it to the broader United States as of 2022.

Demographic Data for Arizona
	Arizona	United States
Population	7,151,502	331,449,281
Land area (sq mi)	113,654	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White	66.7%	65.9%
Black/African American	4.6%	12.5%
Asian	3.4%	5.8%
Native American	4.1%	0.8%
Pacific Islander	0.2%	0.2%
Two or more	13.4%	8.8%
Hispanic/Latino	32%	18.7%
Education
High school graduation rate	88.7%	89.1%
College graduation rate	31.8%	34.3%
Income
Median household income	$72,581	$75,149
Persons below poverty level	9.2%	8.8%
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2020). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2017-2022).
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

Election context

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates in Arizona in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Arizona, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates, 2024
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source
Arizona	U.S. Senate	Democratic	6,556	N/A	4/1/2024	Source
Arizona	U.S. Senate	Republican	7,072	N/A	4/1/2024	Source
Arizona	U.S. Senate	Libertarian	3,607	N/A	4/1/2024	Source
Arizona	U.S. Senate	Unaffiliated	42,303	N/A	4/1/2024	Source

Arizona U.S. Senate election history

The section below details election results for this state's U.S. Senate elections dating back to 2018.

2022

See also: United States Senate election in Arizona, 2022

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Arizona

The following candidates ran in the general election for U.S. Senate Arizona on November 8, 2022.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Mark Kelly (D)	51.4	1,322,027
		Blake Masters (R)	46.5	1,196,308
		Marc Victor (L) (Unofficially withdrew)	2.1	53,762
		Lester Ralph Maul Jr. (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	95
		Christopher Bullock (R) (Write-in)	0.0	27
		Ty McLean Jr. (D) (Write-in)	0.0	21
		Roxanne Rodriguez (R) (Write-in)	0.0	20
		Sherrise Bordes (R) (Write-in)	0.0	17
		William Taylor (D) (Write-in)	0.0	8
		Todd Smeltzer (D) (Write-in)	0.0	6
		Edward Davida (R) (Write-in)	0.0	3

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 2,572,294
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Richard Weed (R)

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Incumbent Mark Kelly advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 2, 2022.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Mark Kelly	100.0	589,400

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 589,400
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 2, 2022.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Blake Masters	40.2	327,198
		Jim Lamon	28.1	228,467
		Mark Brnovich	17.7	144,092
		Michael McGuire	8.7	71,100
		Justin Olson	5.2	41,985
		David Bozic (Write-in)	0.0	138
		Frank Bertone (Write-in)	0.0	88

---

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 813,068
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Robert Paveza (R)
• James Streeter (R)
• Keerthi Prabhala (R)
• Craig Brittain (R)

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Isaiah Motta (G)

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Marc Victor advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 2, 2022.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Marc Victor	100.0	3,065

---

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 3,065
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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2020

On November 3, 2020, there was a special election to fill the rest of the 2017-2022 term that John McCain (R) was elected to in 2016. McCain died from cancer on August 25, 2018. Incumbent Rep. Martha McSally (R) was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Gov. Doug Ducey (R) on December 18, 2018.

General election

Special general election for U.S. Senate Arizona

The following candidates ran in the special general election for U.S. Senate Arizona on November 3, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Mark Kelly (D)	51.2	1,716,467
		Martha McSally (R)	48.8	1,637,661
		Matthew Dorchester (L) (Write-in)	0.0	379
		Nicholas Glenn (Independent Republican Party) (Write-in)	0.0	152
		Debbie Simmons (R) (Write-in)	0.0	98
		John Schiess (R) (Write-in)	0.0	92
		Christopher Beckett (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	69
		Joshua Rodriguez (Unity Party) (Write-in)	0.0	69
		Mohammad Arif (D) (Write-in)	0.0	68
		Perry Kapadia (D) (Write-in)	0.0	58
		Mathew Haupt (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	37
		Patrick Thomas (R) (Write-in)	0.0	29
		Edward Davida (R) (Write-in)	0.0	28
		Jim Stevens (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	23
		Buzz Stewart (D) (Write-in)	0.0	22
		William Decker (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	21
		Adam Chilton (D) (Write-in)	0.0	19
		Benjamin Rodriguez (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	17
		Frank Saenz (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	8

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 3,355,317
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Democratic primary election

Special Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Mark Kelly defeated Bo Garcia in the special Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 4, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Mark Kelly	99.9	665,620
		Bo Garcia (Write-in)	0.1	451

---

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 666,071
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Mohammad Arif (D)
• Sheila Bilyeu (D)
• Juan Angel Vasquez (D)

Republican primary election

Special Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Incumbent Martha McSally defeated Daniel McCarthy and Sean Lyons in the special Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 4, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Martha McSally	75.2	551,119
		Daniel McCarthy	24.8	181,511
		Sean Lyons (Write-in)	0.0	210

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 732,840
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Josue Larose (R)
• Craig Brittain (R)
• Paul Burton (R)
• Floyd Getchell (R)
• Mark Cavener (R)

Libertarian primary election

Special Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

No candidate advanced from the primary.

		Candidate	%	Votes
		Barry J. Hess (Write-in)	76.5	329
		Alan White (Write-in)	23.5	101

---

Vote totals may be incomplete for this race.
	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 430
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2018

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Arizona

Kyrsten Sinema defeated Martha McSally and Angela Green in the general election for U.S. Senate Arizona on November 6, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Kyrsten Sinema (D)	50.0	1,191,100
		Martha McSally (R)	47.6	1,135,200
		Angela Green (G)	2.4	57,442
		Other/Write-in votes	0.0	566

---

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 2,384,308 (100.00% precincts reporting)
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2024 battleground elections

See also: Battlegrounds

This is a battleground election. Other 2024 battleground elections include:

• Arizona's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 (July 30 Democratic primary)
• Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2024
• Maryland's 6th Congressional District election, 2024 (May 14 Democratic primary)

See also

Arizona	2024 primaries	2024 U.S. Congress elections
Arizona congressional delegation Voting in Arizona Arizona elections: 2024 • 2023 • 2022 • 2021 • 2020 • 2019 • 2018	Democratic primary battlegrounds Republican primary battlegrounds U.S. Senate Democratic primaries U.S. Senate Republican primaries U.S. House Democratic primaries U.S. House Republican primaries	U.S. Congress elections U.S. Senate elections U.S. House elections Special elections Ballot access

External links

• Search Google News for this topic

Footnotes

[show]

Arizona's current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

Mark Kelly (D)

Kyrsten Sinema (I)

Representatives

District 1

David Schweikert (R)

District 2

Eli Crane (R)

District 3

Ruben Gallego (D)

District 4

Greg Stanton (D)

District 5

Andy Biggs (R)

District 6

Juan Ciscomani (R)

District 7

Raúl Grijalva (D)

District 8

Debbie Lesko (R)

District 9

Paul Gosar (R)

Republican Party (6)

Democratic Party (4)

Independent (1)