Conditional Cash Transfer brings votes to ruling party

NEW DELHI: There is never a magic pill for ensuring electoral victory. For the UPA government however, there appears to be some consolation on the horizon, with not one but a host of recent studies showing that Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) and targeted benefit schemes, have a direct effect on influencing voting behaviour towards the incumbent government.

A recent World Bank study on Columbia shows that beneficiaries of the Familias En Accion (FA) a CCT programme of the Columbian government showed a 2.5 % swing in not just the intention to vote but that this swing was in favour of the ruling party.

“During the 2010 presidential elections in Columbia, voters covered by FA not only voted more often but also expressed a stronger preference (around 2% points) for the official party that implemented and expanded the programme,” states the report. A two percentage point swing in favour of the ruling party in India in the next election could change equations rapidly.

Javier Baez one of the four authors of the report says the report is country specific. “There haven’t been any such studies for India, not even MGNREGA. Replicability therefore is problematic,” he told ET.

The World Bank report is only the latest in a series of studies of Latin American countries like Brazil and Mexico where CCT and targeted programmes have been shown to affect electoral outcomes. A Princeton University study looked at the 2006 Brazilian presidential polls and the re-election of president Lula and directly corelated it to the anti-poverty programme FA.

National Advisory Council (NAC) member NC Saxena, however, says that the studies do not amount for much in the Indian context. “First of all, we do not have a CCT, but a benefits transfer scheme. Secondly, the main contours of Latin American economies and society are different from Indian society, they are more urbanised and have a stronger banking system.

In our country it is difficult to get banks to deliver such services in rural areas,” he says. Economist Bibek Debroy adds that supply side constraints in India are too many to support a CCT. “In terms of food, education, CCT won’t work. You give money to poor to buy subsidised food, but where are the fair price shops and efficient PDS,” he asks.

Senior Congressmen admit that the reports had been considered before the roll out of the scheme on January 1. “Even with the limited roll out, it is a fact that this is the big social sector idea of the UPA II. The slogan “aapka paisa aapke haath” (your money in your hands) will be one of the cornerstones of the 2014 election campaign,” said a senior Congressman.