Monsoon to hit Kerala on June 5, says IMD

New Delhi: The southwest monsoon is expected to hit Kerala – the country’s first recipient of monsoon rains – on June 5, four days after its normal onset date, the India Meteorological Department said on Friday.

The delay in the onset, however, will not have any implications over the weather office’s earlier prediction of 100% normal monsoon rainfall in the country this year, with 61% chance at normal or above normal rainfall.

This comes as a relief for farmers and the country’s economy currently battered by the ongoing lockout to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, as two-thirds of the country’s population depends on agriculture for livelihood and higher farm income boosts overall demand and business sentiment.

The current measurement of normal monsoon stands at 88 cm of rains from June to October, in some parts of the country.

Since 2010, IMD has missed its forecasted days for the onset of monsoon in Kerala by over two days only twice – in 2012 and 2015.


The projected delay in monsoon onset is due to a likely cyclone, Amphan over the Bay of Bengal starting Saturday.

"The cyclone is pulling the monsoon to Andamans, towards Kerala," Sivananda Pai, head of long range forecasting at the IMD, told ET. "But once that weakens by the 18th or 19th, there will be no driving force for the winds, causing the slight delay."

IMD uses an indigenously-developed statistical model with a model error of ±4 days to predict the onset date over the country.

Last month, it had changed the onset dates for the southwest monsoon for most regions of the country by seven to 15 days, but had kept the Kerala (Thiruvananthapuram) onset date unchanged.

ET had first reported of the possibility of the IMD changing dates when it was under consideration last year. This is the first change in the onset and withdrawal dates for many regions across India since they were last set in 1940.