Third Front can muddy poll waters more for AAP-hit BJP

NEW DELHI: When Parliament reconvenes on Wednesday, a group of regional parties and the Left will signal the coming together of non-Congress, non-BJP parties, as a prelude to formation of a Third Front-like alliance for the Lok Sabha elections. It has already attracted the attention of Congress.

"I don't think there is any scope for a Third Front or Fourth Front in these elections. There are some parties that cannot live without each other for more than two or three years, but can't live with each other once they get together for more than six months. That is the irony of these so-called Third Front and Fourth Front", said AICC General Secretary Shakeel Ahmad. That dismissive posture could be meant for public consumption.

In Congress corridors, the pre-poll emergence of a third choice is being viewed with considerable tactical interest. Facing one of its toughest Lok Sabha elections in less than 90 days, Congress calculates the new formation would be another national claimant for anti-Congress, anti-incumbency votes, competing with the BJP-led NDA in many key states when the saffron party is already worried about the damage potential of Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP in urban centres.

Congress' calculation may not be out of place. A closer look at the group teaming up with the Left would reveal that it has the potential to hit BJP more than UPA. Almost every party in the new front — SP in Uttar Pradesh, JD(U) in Bihar, Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, JD(S) in Karnataka, AGP in Assam, AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, JVM(P) of Babulal Marandi in Jharkhand and Left parties in West Bengal and Kerala — has always been anti-Congress in its turf.

Barring the Left and SP, most parties have been part of BJP's alliances. (JD-S in Karnataka not only helped AB Vajpayee form NDA governments but helped BJP reach its highest score of 182 LS seats in 1999 polls).

BJP has more reasons to be worried with the new formation because the Front is official confirmation that these former NDA allies will not be available for the services of Narendra Modi-led BJP to jointly harvest the anti-Congress votes. This comes despite Modi's efforts to woo back Marandi, Jayalalithaa, Navin Patnaik and Prafulla Mahanta.

Although the Front will be equally unrelenting in its anti-Congress positioning, it will split anti-incumbency votes against UPA, denying NDA the monopoly in mopping up these crucial votes. The Front also would leave BJP without worthy partners in states like Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Jharkhand and Assam, where it needs maximum efforts to take on Congress and allies. Like AAP, the Third formation will also advertise that NDA is not the only non-Congress option for voters.

JD(U) general secretary KC Tyagi made no secret of this when he told ET, "Recent assembly elections in four states saw major gains for BJP. This means, Congress is ineffective in fighting communal politics of BJP. So, there is need for a new front, comprising the Janata Parivar, Left and other regional parties to cater to people's aspiration for a third alternative. The victory of AAP in Delhi shows wherever a third choice to Congress and BJP was available, people voted for it. Our Front will be that alternative in the Lok Sabha polls across the nation." It is also no secret that in the event of the Third Front forming an anti-BJP government, it would need Congress' outside support. Congress, on the other hand, expects the Front to spoil NDA's chances even as a large chunk of minority voters rallies behind it due to the Modi factor.

However, BJP has been dismissive of the news with its senior leader Arun Jaitley saying: "Both JD(U) and SP are potential losers in their areas of influence. Losers don't become winners merely because they attempt to form a losers Front."

But, CPI's D Raja insists BJP is panicky. "People know Congress and BJP are alike when it comes to economic policy and foreign policy matters. Therefore, people need a real alternative, an alternative that is anti-Right and Left of centre. The emerging Front of like-minded regional parties along with the Left offer that alternative before the people. BJP's attack on the Front only shows how much the saffron party and Modi have panicked," Raja said.

While UPA, AAP and Third Force are making it a three-horse race in the Lok Sabha polls, the likes of Mayawati and Mamata Banerjee are still on waitand-watch, making the countdown to the elections exhilarating.