POLITICAL ECONOMY
Corporate France braces for new era of political turmoil
France's business elite is concerned about political volatility, street protests, and potential bankruptcies as the country heads into a parliamentary election. Executives meeting in Provence fear the far right and left may undo President Macron's pro-business reforms. The rise of inexperienced leaders and uncertain economic outlook are adding to their anxiety.
Not politics, not interest rates: India's surging economy at risk from water
India is facing a growing water crisis, with the country's growing water stress potentially impacting its growth. The country's growing water stress could affect agricultural production and industrial operations, leading to food inflation and declines in income for affected businesses and workers, especially farmers. Contaminated water kills about 200,000 Indians each year, and the government is focusing on conserving the resource, recycling waste water, and reducing the country's over-reliance on the annual monsoon, especially in the agricultural sector.
Britain’s economy isn’t seeing growth anywhere near India’s 7% GDP rise — this has caused fewer differences between the Conservatives and Labour: Jaideep Prabhu
The UK election landscape is marked by economic uncertainties post-Brexit, minimal policy distinctions between parties, and environmental concerns driving voter engagement. Influential figures like Farage, Johnson, and Sunak shape political narratives, while climate change discussions underscore the urgency for sustainable solutions amidst global warming threats.
8th year of GST: Friendlier, simpler regime ahead? What the future likely holds
It would be unreasonable to expect very quick results. While concrete outcomes on this agenda are likely to be backloaded within the financial year, clear timelines and a glide path of transition may well emerge sooner.
Xi says China planning 'major' reforms ahead of key political meeting
Chinese President Xi Jinping said Friday the ruling Communist Party was planning and implementing "major" reforms, ahead of a closely watched political conclave that is expected to put economic recovery high on the agenda. Xi said in a speech on Friday policymakers "are planning and implementing major measures to further deepen reform in a comprehensive manner".
Asia shares stumble; political uncertainty grips euro
Asian stocks fell as traders reduced bets for Fed rate cuts due to a tight US labor market. A snap election in France raised political concerns, impacting the euro. MSCI's Asia-Pacific shares index also dropped.
- Go To Page 1
Indian exports: How Modi 3.0 can navigate the protectionist tides in advanced economies like US and EU
India has transitioned from a decade of single-party rule to a new era of coalition politics, causing concern among stock market investors about potential slowdowns in economic reforms. Rising protectionist measures from advanced economies like the US and EU pose challenges for Indian exporters, with stringent regulations on products ranging from chemicals to food items. The impact of these barriers could disproportionately restrict India's economic objectives and competitiveness, particularly in key sectors like textiles and apparel.
As Modi 3.0 begins, where the economy stands, where it's headed
Narendra Modi is set to begin his third term as PM with a full-strength NDA team, amidst optimism for India's economic future. RBI Governor Shantikanta Das highlighted the country's robust economic growth, strong manufacturing sector, recovering rural demand, and promising investment activity. India's external sector remains resilient, with positive growth prospects ahead.
First to indicate good or bad about economy, as it stays strong, ignore noises about politics: 6 auto stocks with upside potential of upto 34 %
Unlike the US and some other western countries, where there is a separate transportation index which also has an element of logistic companies in it and is watched very closely, in India we don't have a very popular transportation index. The reason why transportation index numbers are extremely important is because there is enough historical evidence to show that auto industry numbers lead indicators of what is happening in the economy. That is why if one looks at the history of the stock market, the rallies which are led by the transportation and auto sector are more durable rallies. Especially the ones which are led by large commercial vehicles. Demand for large commercial vehicles would only increase when there is higher economic growth as more goods get moved from one place to another when the economy is doing well. At this point and in near term there will be noises about political instability, but better ignore it.
Another vote surprise! Dissent grows in RBI that has more 'elbow room'
RBI Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of India maintained key lending rates unchanged for an eighth consecutive time with a larger split in votes. Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised the need for price stability in the growing economy. The unexpected vote split indicates a potential shift towards a rate cut in future policies, though 'greater elbow room' for price stability may not demand an immediate cut. The RBI's stance aligns with market expectations, with a focus on balancing inflation and growth. Despite robust economic growth, inflation remains a concern.
Lok Sabha results won't force India's budget to make significant policy shifts: Fitch
Fitch Ratings anticipates minimal policy shifts in India post-election losses. The upcoming July budget will detail economic reform plans and fiscal goals for the next five years, crucial for addressing fiscal metrics, reducing debt, potential deviations from capital expenditure commitments, the risk of heightened social spending, progress in judicial reforms at the state level, and reforms in the manufacturing sector.
Lok Sabha Results: Coalition govt is back. Will policy paralysis too strike again?
Over the past decade, Narendra Modi has propelled India's economy to become one of the fastest-growing globally, positioning it to soon rank as the world's third-largest. His emphasis on reforms and dynamic policies, exemplified by initiatives like Make in India, has bolstered manufacturing and infrastructure growth. However, the recent Lok Sabha election results, leading to a coalition government, raise concerns about potential challenges and policy paralysis ahead. Expert analyses suggest that while coalition governments have historically been effective in driving economic growth, they have struggled to control inflation.
Coalition politics, weakened mandate could make passing legislations on ambitious reforms challenging: Fitch
Fitch Ratings predicts that the new government in India, led by Narendra Modi, will face challenges in passing legislation on ambitious reforms due to coalition politics and a weakened mandate. Major reforms to land and labour laws will remain on the agenda, but these have been contentious and the NDA's weaker mandate could complicate their passage further. The BJP fell short of a single-party majority in the 543-seat lower house of parliament for the first time since its latest period in government in 2014.
Lok Sabha Results: Will a fractured mandate for NDA impede new govt's infra and capex push?
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections deliver a fractured mandate, influencing economic reform outlook. Experts recommend focusing on public capex and high-tech sectors for growth. Tanvee Gupta Jain predicts fiscal leeway for populist spending, supported by progress in implementing labor laws.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: There will be political stability; healthcare could turn out to be the dark horse in FY25: Aditya Khemka
Global investors haven't got much choice but to remain invested in India and perhaps increase allocations despite the political uncertainty.
Past reforms will continue to drive economy over next 2 years: Neelkanth Mishra
In fact, with the RBI dividend being significantly better than what was budgeted, I would not be surprised if in the July budget, the government chooses to bring down its FY25 fiscal deficit target from 5.1% to 4.9% because that money is there.
BJP-led NDA's narrow majority shifts focus to rural spending and increased private investments
The recent election results in India saw the ruling BJP-led NDA secure a majority, though narrower than expected. A Bernstein report predicts increased focus on direct social schemes, especially in rural areas. Private sector investments are expected to drive the capex cycle, with implications for economic growth and market dynamics. Market volatility is anticipated due to policy uncertainty, while financials remain a key sector.
As India steps back into coalition era, uphill road for tough reforms
In the new coalition government era, India's reform agenda may prioritize job creation and factors market reforms. Balancing political sensitivities and reform priorities will be crucial for the government in navigating coalition dynamics and opposition pressures.
Will NBFCs drive India's next growth wave? Manish Singh answers
What will this third term bring? Now I do not know any better than you from the announcements so far, but for me, I think that has to come through. If that does not come through, then high valuations will not be sustainable.
Modi plans post-election reforms to rival Chinese manufacturing
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is planning business-friendly measures if he secures a third term, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing by easing labor regulations, offering subsidies, and reducing import taxes. Modi's vision includes creating industrial zones to attract global firms, but challenges remain with restrictive labor laws, land acquisition, and high import tariffs. His reelection campaign emphasizes economic development and positioning India as a manufacturing hub.
FPIs take out Rs 25,586 cr from equities in May on poll jitters, attractive valuations in China
GDP growth numbers released on Friday painted a very optimistic picture. Q4FY24 GDP growth came in at 7.8 per cent surpassing the 6.7 per cent expectation, while the full-year FY24 growth stood at 8.2 per cent
Full majority, just majority, hung parliament: S&P Global Market Intelligence analyses scenarios and road ahead for India
S&P Global Market Intelligence anticipates continued policy emphasis on strategic sectors post the Lok Sabha election, regardless of outcomes. Factors influencing voter choices include economic growth, inflation, employment, and foreign policy. The analysis explores three election result scenarios, projecting implications on sectors and foreign policy strategies.
Investors must take Rajan’s promise, not Pitroda's threat
Investors are anxious about the potential impact of the ongoing general elections on economic policies. The possibility of the INDIA alliance, led by the Congress Party, coming to power has raised fears of a significant policy shift, particularly following suggestions of introducing an inheritance tax. However, it's important for investors to differentiate between exaggerated concerns and actual risks.
Raghuram Rajan on politics: ''My business is not kissing babies''
Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan dispels political rumors, supports Rahul Gandhi's leadership, and advocates for faster Indian economic growth by 2047. He critiques India's current growth rate and job creation efforts, emphasizing the need for faster development.
Russia’s premier foreign policy forum to focus on BRICS role in shaping global financial architecture
The 'Primakov Readings' Forum in Moscow will discuss BRICS priorities in the context of Russian Presidency of BRICS. The theme is 'Russia in the Global Context' with key attendees like Yury Ushakov and Sergey Lavrov.
Wealth Redistribution Tempest: Much ado about nothing (read no vote bank)?
The idea of wealth redistribution proposed by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has sparked a heated debate in India's political landscape, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi labeling it as 'dangerous'. The discussion revolves around conducting surveys to assess wealth distribution and potential redistribution policies, stirring up controversy and accusations between political parties. The issue highlights growing income inequality and calls for radical measures to address economic disparities. While some experts advocate for progressive taxation and social spending to enhance economic equality, others caution against the potential negative impacts of wealth redistribution on individual incentives and overall economic growth. The ongoing debate underscores the complex challenges of wealth inequality in India and the need for thoughtful and effective solutions to ensure a fair and inclusive society.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh blames Congress, AAP for crisis of credibility in Indian politics
Senior BJP leader and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh criticised Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) for the credibility crisis in Indian politics during an election meeting in support of BJP's candidate in West Delhi. Singh accused the opposition leaders of contributing to the crisis. He also took a dig at AAP Chief Arvind Kejriwal's governance from jail post his arrest in a money laundering case. Singh expressed confidence in India's economic growth and aspirations to be a superpower for global welfare.
Keep your student doors ajar, else...
In a (Western liberal democratic) world that, in theory, swears by free access and open societies, international students are becoming a little less welcome by the day. Canada, Britain - and now it seems Australia as well - are keeping their doors far less open, ostensibly because of housing capacity concerns, domestic political implications of international students transitioning into citizens, and other barely-hidden xenophobic fears.
Not just a one-horse town: Empower Opposition to become active political participants
India aims to be a $5 tn economy. So, there's much talk about accelerating growth and enhancing economic competitiveness. But are we through talking about political competition?
Load More
