RATE OF GROWTH
India Ratings’ Devendra Pant on how water shortage can impact economic growth
Devendra Pant, Chief Economist at India Ratings, highlights the long-term impact of water scarcity in India on agriculture, manufacturing, and hydroelectricity production. He emphasizes the need for immediate action by policymakers and citizens to address this critical issue. Pant says water scarcity is going to have an impact. and not only in agriculture, unless we develop or have those seeds and crops that can withstand extreme weather conditions.
US job growth moderates in June; unemployment rate rises to 4.1%
In June, job growth slowed with the unemployment rate at 4.1%, reported the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 206,000, while average hourly earnings increased 0.3%. Revised May data showed fewer jobs added. Wage growth moderation and disinflationary trends bolster the Federal Reserve's rate cut prospects. Monitoring these changes is crucial for economic assessment.
Stable economy boosts India's housing market to new heights, scales 11-year peak
The housing property market across India is seeing substantial growth in sales volumes, driven by stable economic conditions and continued confidence, even amidst higher mortgage rates. This uptrend is led by the top eight cities, including Mumbai, Delhi-NCR, Bengaluru, Pune, and Hyderabad, propelling the country’s residential real estate market to an 11-year high in sales volumes during the first half of the year.
Recession looming large on US economy? What growth rate has been predicted by Fed Reserve body? Everything you may like to know
Recessions are fairly common in the US economy. There has been about one U.S. recession every five years or so since World War 2. But they don't last long. The average duration of a U.S. recession since World War II is just 11.1 months.
India's rating upgrade possible in next 24 months if fiscal deficit falls to 4%: S&P
India could receive a sovereign rating upgrade in the next 24 months if the central government manages its finances prudently and reduces the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP. The trigger for the upgrade would be a general government deficit falling below 7% of the GDP, with a significant portion driven by the central government. The central government estimates a fiscal deficit of 5.1% of GDP in the current fiscal, down from 5.63% in 2023-24.
RBI aims to get inflation down to 4%, don't expect any rate cut this year: Amitabh Chaudhry, MD, Axis Bank
Axis Bank aims for sustained growth through NIM enhancement, market share expansion, and compliance strengthening under CEO Amitabh Chaudhry's leadership.
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US job openings rise to 8.1 million despite higher interest rates
U.S. job openings increased slightly to 8.1 million in May, despite higher interest rates aimed at cooling the labor market, as reported by the Labor Department. Layoffs rose slightly, while the number of Americans quitting their jobs remained stable. The economy and job market have shown resilience despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to raise rates. Job openings have decreased since a peak in March 2022, signaling a possible slowdown in the economy.
Oil holds near two-month high on higher demand outlook, possible rate cut
Exciting developments in the oil market as prices hold steady near recent highs, driven by robust demand projections and the possibility of U.S. interest rate cuts. The looming threat of Hurricane Beryl and reduced crude imports into Asia, especially China, add further intrigue to the market landscape.
Budget 2024: A look at India’s GDP growth rate before Sitharaman sets the ball rolling in Lok Sabha
Budget 2024 GDP | Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is preparing to unveil Union Budget 2024 in July, underlining India's robust GDP growth. With GDP climbing to 7.8% in Q4 FY24 and an estimated 8.2% for FY24, policies will focus on sustaining growth momentum. The budget aims to align economic strategies with evolving demands amidst global uncertainties.
Increase in exports, improvement in CAD, mnfg to help boost Indian economy: Goyal
India's merchandise exports show growth despite a widened trade deficit, reflecting a positive economic outlook. The Commerce Minister's participation in the gem and jewellery industry program signifies confidence in the country's economic trajectory.
India Ratings pegs bank credit growth at 15.4% for FY25
India Ratings has forecasted a 15.4% loan growth for banks in FY25. The rating agency believes a turnaround in private capital expenditure could alleviate any pressure on overall credit growth during the fiscal year.
US inflation cools in May, boosting hopes of Fed rate cut
May's stable inflation, influenced by service costs and goods prices, sets the stage for potential Federal Reserve interest rate changes. The report highlights slight consumer spending growth and hints at the Fed's aim for a controlled economic slowdown through core inflation moderation.
Gold prices heads for quarterly rise; spotlight on inflation data
In the world of gold investment, tracking prices, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's stance is key. Market dynamics shift based on factors like GDP estimates, equipment spending, and spot silver prices. Understanding these nuances is crucial for making informed investment decisions in a constantly evolving economic environment.
US economic growth for last quarter is revised up slightly to a 1.4% annual rate
The US economy expanded at a 1.4% annual pace from January to March, the slowest quarterly growth since spring 2022, according to the government. Consumer spending grew only 1.5%, indicating high interest rates may be impacting the economy. The Commerce Department estimated a 1.3% GDP growth in the first quarter.
US weekly jobless claims drift lower
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended June 22, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The claims data included last Wednesday's Juneteenth National Independence Day, a new holiday. Claims tend to be volatile around public holidays.
It's going to be good after it gets quieter
Companies no longer have the pricing power they had in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic when consumption demand was roaring. That has now played out in manufacturing and services. The growth from here on should be more sedate, building on the economy's post-Covid revival. The markets are yet to price in this moderation, and some froth may be removed once the volatility around the election results settles.
Expect a return of 12-13% from largecaps in 3-5 years: Sanjay H Parekh
The roadmap for consolidation of fiscal deficit will continue. The banking balance sheets are very strong. The corporate balance sheets because clearly those are also at all-time low on leverage.
India central bank policymakers divided over rate-growth debate
Internal members maintain hawkish stance on inflation, with Governor Das cautioning against hasty actions for fear of worsening the situation
India can grow at 8 pc if inflation keeps falling: Ashima Goyal, an external member of MPC
Ashima Goyal, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, emphasized the potential for India's economy to grow at 8% if the nominal repo rate falls in line with declining inflation. The Reserve Bank of India has projected a GDP growth of 7.2% for the current fiscal year.
Real rate of interest at 1.5 pc apt for economy: Shashanka Bhide
Shashanka Bhide, an external member of the rate-setting panel, suggests a real interest rate of 1.5% for India, closely tied to achieving the Monetary Policy Committee's 4% inflation target. He emphasizes the importance of favorable macroeconomic conditions for high economic growth.
We are actually raising the real repo rate: MPC's Jayanth Varma
Jayanth Varma, who has expressed concerns about growth sacrifice due to restrictive monetary policy, voted for a 25-basis-point rate cut in the MPC's June policy review.
Real repo rate too high and could hurt growth, said MPC dissenters
The two external members of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) who had pushed for a 25 basis point rate cut at the June 7 meeting, Ashima Goyal and JR Varma, said the real repo rate at 2% was too high and could hurt growth, according to the minutes released by the central bank on Friday.
Get on the job of jobs
A thorough assessment of historical and current employment trends across sectors leads to a deeper dive into complexities of jobless growth. Mapping out the strengths and weaknesses of each sector is crucial for formulating strategies to enhance job-creating potential. In addition to understanding the employment-generation capacities of different sectors, India's low labour force participation rate (LFPR) poses a significant challenge.
India bond yields seen rising tracking US peers
Indian government bond yields are expected to rise due to a spike in U.S. Treasury yields after strong economic data. The benchmark 10-year yield in India is likely to move in a 7.01%-7.06% range on Monday.
RBI policy on expected lines, upgrading GDP growth estimate reposes confidence: Bankers
Bankers welcomed the Reserve Bank of India's decision to maintain interest rates, as it was in line with expectations, with an upward revision of the growth estimate. The move, including the unchanged repo rate, was seen as positive for the economy. The revised GDP growth forecast for FY25 instilled confidence in the central bank's outlook. Industry leaders praised the regulatory measures and highlighted the importance of collaboration for financial sector growth.
RBI holds rates amid food inflation fears
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept policy interest rates unchanged for the eighth consecutive meeting due to concerns about rising food prices. The central bank raised its economic growth forecast for FY25 to 7.2% from 7%, driven by state investments and broad-based consumption. Despite inflation worries, the repo rate remains at 6.5%. A divide in the Monetary Policy Committee emerged, with two members favoring a rate cut. Equity indices surged, but bond yields rose slightly. Governor Das emphasized India's independent monetary policy stance.
RBI maintains interest rates amid growing calls for easier money policy
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept interest rates unchanged in its eighth consecutive meeting, with some members leaning towards easing monetary policy due to concerns about rising food prices. The central bank raised its FY25 growth forecast by 20 basis points to 7.2%, leading to a surge in equity indices. Inflation remains a concern due to global commodity price increases and potential food price spikes.
Credit-to-deposit ratio of banks falls 50 bps since March as deposit growth slows
The credit-to-deposit ratio (CD ratio) of commercial banks has decreased by 50 bps since March, indicating a slowdown in credit growth due to slower deposit growth. Despite expectations of stable rates and stagnant deposit rates, there may be further pressure on loan growth. The latest data from the Reserve Bank of India shows a decline in the CD ratio, suggesting that banks are lending less in proportion to the deposits they collect.
New govt to inherit strong economy, focus on making India developed nation by 2047
India's record-breaking economic growth rate and strong tax revenues provide a foundation for future reforms aimed at transforming the country into a developed nation by 2047. The new government must address challenges such as unemployment and rural distress, while also focusing on controlling inflation. Despite potential obstacles, experts expect continued infrastructure-led growth, investor-friendly policies, and reforms to maintain India's economic momentum and attract investment.
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