RURAL DEMAND
FMCG sector expected to see 7-9 pc revenue growth in FY25, helped by a recovery in rural markets: Crisil
FMCG sector revenue is projected to grow 7-9% this fiscal, driven by rural revival, urban demand, and rising disposable incomes. Crisil Ratings indicates premiumisation will boost margins by 50-75 basis points despite marketing expenses. Rabindra Verma highlights 8-9% F&B and home care growth, and 6-7% for personal care. FY25 will see low single-digit product realisation growth.
India's FMCG sector to see revenue growth of 7-9 pc in fiscal 2024: CRISIL
CRISIL forecasts 7-9% revenue growth for the FMCG sector in the current fiscal year, driven by increased volume and rural demand recovery. The report highlights stable product prices in personal care and home care, while food and beverages face modest raw material cost increases. Rural growth is bolstered by better monsoons and government initiatives, while urban demand remains robust due to rising incomes and premium product preferences
FMCG Q1 check: Some hot, some not
Scorching summer heat and elections created a mixed quarter for consumer goods, with sales of cooling products like beverages, ice creams, talcum powder, and sunscreens rising up to 15 per cent amidst the heatwave. However, impulse snacks and single-serve beverages saw a decline due to reduced out-of-home consumption. Election restrictions impacted alcohol sales, while delayed monsoon affected insecticide sales. Last-mile servicing challenges were reported, particularly in rural areas due to the heat.
Government focus on agriculture, rural income to sustain tractor demand: Swaraj Engines
The government's agricultural focus in India, along with initiatives to boost rural incomes, is expected to sustain tractor demand despite a 7 per cent industry sales decline reported by Swaraj Engines Ltd. The company's annual report highlights opportunities in the horticultural segment and factors like increased affordability, demand for farm mechanisation, and government efforts to improve agriculture. Swaraj Engines foresees its engine business aligning with the industry's growth trajectory.
FMCG spends up 18% in two years due to inflation- Kantar
Consumers have increased their spending on daily essentials, groceries, and household products by 18% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to two years ago, according to a recent Kantar report. Despite a recent softening in commodity prices, the prices for these goods remain nearly a fifth higher.
Green shoots seen in rural demand: Wipro Consumer CEO
Vineet Agrawal, CEO of Wipro Consumer Care and Lighting, noted positive signs of growth in rural demand and anticipates a recovery in the hinterland by September, supported by favorable monsoon conditions and a successful harvest. Furthermore, he suggests that stable government policies could potentially boost sales of discretionary products through continuity and consistency.
Loan demand for rural homes, tractors may rise on govt push
"We believe a likely surge in rural credit demand, higher affordability and government push toward financial inclusion with ease of regulations in the microfinance sector. A likely credit-linked subsidy scheme (CLSS) in the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana would drive credit growth going forward," ICICI Securities said in a report.
PM Modi shows rural bent, OKs ₹20kcr for PM Kisan Nidhi Scheme
The Prime Minister approved the 17th instalment of the PM Kisan Nidhi Scheme, benefiting 93 million farmers with around ₹20,000 crore. This move is seen as a boost to rural demand and consumer stocks. The new coalition government is expected to focus more on rural welfare, signaling a shift towards consumption-focused policies. Rural markets have shown growth, outpacing urban markets for the first time in five quarters, indicating a positive trend for the FMCG sector. The PM emphasized the government's commitment to farmer welfare and agriculture.
Modi 3.0: FMCG companies can cheer the new coalition government
In a symbolic move, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first action after being sworn in for a third term was releasing the 17th PM-KISAN installment, providing financial relief to 9.3 crore farmers. With a weaker mandate, the government is expected to focus on rural welfare, potentially boosting FMCG sector growth and consumption.
Demand under rural jobs scheme eases again in May
Demand for work under India's rural job guarantee scheme, MGNREGS, dropped for a seventh consecutive month in May, signaling improved economic conditions at the start of the fiscal year. About 37.46 million individuals sought work, down 12.1% from the previous year, with 27.18 million households seeking work, a 14.3% drop. The trend is attributed to better-paying job opportunities and the impact of heat waves across the country, although the data is subject to revision.
Rural demand theme blooms
Investor money is shifting to defensive shares like FMCG, healthcare, and information technology following the lower-than-anticipated seats for the BJP in recent elections. Marico, Godrej Consumer, Nestle India, ITC, Britannia, HUL, and Dabur saw significant gains. The Nifty and NSE FMCG Index also rose.
In Focus: Scrips that like a cloud on the horizon
Companies such as Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Britannia, Dabur, Hero Motocorp, Westlife Foodworld, Shoppers Stop and others have already indicated in their commentary a gradual demand recovery if the monsoon forecast turns out to be accurate.
Consumption demand remained subdued in Q4, rural India recovered after several quarters: ITC
FMCG major ITC notes subdued Q4 consumption but rural demand recovery. Q4 profit below estimates at Rs 5,190 crore; revenue up 2% to Rs 19,446.5 crore. Cigarette revenue rises 7.7%, FMCG (excluding cigarettes) up 7.2%, impacted by low priced Chinese supplies and trade restrictions on agri commodities affecting agri business segment.
Uneven rainfall affected rural demand, says HUL chairman Nitin Paranjpe
Hindustan Unilever (HUL) reported a strong performance in the last fiscal year despite challenges in the macroeconomic environment, including erratic rainfall affecting agricultural output and rural demand. Chairman Nitin Paranjpe noted a gradual deflation in commodity prices but highlighted sustained high inflation. HUL's managing director Rohit Jawa's remuneration increased by 4% to Rs 22.39 crore, with his salary being 153 times higher than the average employee's remuneration. HUL's permanent employee count increased to 7215 from 6697 the previous year, with a 7.38% rise in median employee remuneration.
FMCG companies to see muted demand in June quarter, recovery likely in H2
Overall volumes, which indicate the number of products consumers bought, expanded 5.2% in the March quarter, unchanged from the three months to December. Sales volumes in rural markets climbed 5.8%, and in cities by 4.7%, from a year earlier, data from Kantar showed. Kantar monitors branded and unorganised products, including unpackaged voluminous commodities. Nielsen, on the other hand, tracks primarily branded retail sales.
FMCG, auto companies break the jinx as rural growth rises above urban
Rural FMCG demand outpaced urban markets in Jan-Mar 2024. Car companies reported higher rural sales. NielsenIQ noted 7.6% rural growth. Factors include robust rabi crop and government measures. Maruti Suzuki saw record rural sales.
Rural FMCG sales outgrew urban for the first time in 5 quarters in Q1: NielsenIQ
In the January-March ’24 quarter, rural markets surpassed urban consumption for packaged consumer goods for the first time in five quarters, with rural growth at 7.6% while urban demand declined by 5.7%. Overall FMCG sector value grew by 6.6% driven by consumption, with flat price growth at 0.1%. NielsenIQ highlighted the growth in the FMCG industry being driven by consumption trends, with rural areas leading the growth. By volume, the sector grew by 6.5% nationally, with non-food sector sales growing at 11% compared to 4.8% for food. Home and personal care categories outperformed food categories, with larger pack sizes driving growth.
Dabur explains why rural demand for its brands is growing at a faster clip than urban
FMCG giant Dabur has increased its rural footprint, driving demand for its brands by nearly 400 bps compared to urban areas. The company has increased investments in consumer activation in rural areas and launched newer affordable and rural-specific packs to cater to these markets. CEO Mohit Malhotra noted that Dabur's rural distribution is the highest in the industry, giving it a distinct advantage in driving rural growth.
HUL, Tata Consumer and Nestle India's margins gain on premiumisation, cost cuts
While volume growth was tepid to modest for the three companies, gross margins have expanded. Margin expansion has been achieved through better operational efficiency or productivity gains. Taking price rises, lowering ad spends and rationalising costs are the various levers used.
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