SGH MACRO ADVISORS
Fed rate cuts to remain in view for 2024, even as rate-setters shift
The annual rotation on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest-rate-setting committee means its 2024 voting members lean slightly more hawkish than the outgoing group from 2023 - but that won't budge the outlook for a pivot to interest-rate cuts next year.
Fed meeting minutes could hint at end of rate hikes
The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range at the July 25-26 meeting, a step Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at his post-meeting press conference may not be the last in an aggressive round of rate increases that began in March 2022 to offset the fastest breakout of inflation since the 1980s
Debate over rate moves at US central bank is shifting
Inflation pressures are easing, which could give policymakers room to keep interest rates at or near current levels for the time being. Still, price gains remain well above the central bank's 2% target, making policymakers hesitant to declare victory.
US economy may be heading to a place that must not be named
This emphatically does not mean that there will be a recession - or that I or anyone else has the ability to predict one with precision. But there's enough reason to suspect that rough times are coming to factor that possibility into your personal planning.
Fed Decision-Day Guide: Officials to downshift rate hikes, aim for higher peak
The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to raise rates by 50 basis points and bring its benchmark target rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, the highest since 2007. Fresh quarterly economic projections released after the meeting will also shed light on how much further policymakers expect rates to go.
Fed chair Powell is not done telling markets where rates will go
"It's a very difficult environment to try to give forward guidance 60, 90 days in advance," Powell said at a press conference after May's meeting. "There are just so many things that can happen in the economy and around the world. So, you know, we're leaving ourselves room to look at the data and make a decision as we get there."
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Fed's complex trifecta: War, pandemic and inflation
The Fed is almost certain to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. More important will be projections showing just how far policymakers think rates will need to rise this year and in 2023 and 2024 to tame inflation that has blasted past their expectations.
Fed to start rate hikes with licence to turn aggressive later
There’s certainly reason to be worried about inflation as Russia’s invasion compounds the pressures ignited by the pandemic. With a 25 basis-point hike near-certain on Wednesday after Powell took the rare step of publicly backing such a shift, futures markets show around 165 basis points of tightening this year, or the equivalent of at least six quarter-point increases.
Fed's messaging on pivot gets high marks from Wall Street
"Powell has been out of the limelight in recent weeks and not providing the markets any guidance on this point," wrote SGH Macro Advisors' Tim Duy.
Hot inflation drives case for 'big-bang' Fed rate hike in March
Economists at Deutsche Bank on Thursday said they now think the Fed will kick off its policy tightening with a 50 basis-point hike next month.
US central bankers set sights on March rate hike
In December, Fed policymakers took a step toward that eventuality, agreeing to end their bond purchases by March, and signaling they could raise interest rates three times this year.
With bond-buying 'taper' in the bag, Fed turns a wary eye to inflation
The dilemma facing the U.S. central bank is whether inflation eases before policymakers feel compelled to step in with interest rate increases to curb it. Investors are acting as if the Fed's patience will run out soon.
November? December? Fed's 'taper' timeline tied to volatile jobs data
Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have said the US central bank's $120 billion in monthly bond purchases could be scaled back later this year as a first step towards ending the crisis-era policies implemented in the spring of 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic was taking hold.
Embedded as a risk, new COVID cycle could challenge Fed, recovery
U.S. Treasury yields have tumbled in a sign investors may be losing confidence in both the U.S. growth outlook and the Fed's ability to navigate between the shoals of a resurgent pandemic that may require more help from the central bank and high inflation that may demand a more restrictive approach.
Fed expected to signal start of monetary policy shift debate
US job growth has been weaker than expected in the intervening weeks, but inflation has run hotter - a worst-of-both-worlds outcome that has forced the Fed to bank on recent price hikes proving "transitory," and hiring to accelerate as the nation's economic reopening continues.
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