U S RATING
Oil prices on track for fourth straight week of gains
Oil prices stabilized in Asian trade, set for a fourth week of gains amid strong U.S. summer demand and supply concerns. Brent and WTI prices rose. Russia's Rosneft and Lukoil to cut July exports. Saudi Aramco lowered Asian prices. Sentiment boosted by geopolitical tensions, a 12.2 million barrels draw, potential Fed rate cuts, and the Gaza conflict.
Brent crude above $87 at highest levels since April
Brent crude prices reach a 3-month high at $87 due to a significant drop in US inventories. Market sees gains supported by dollar weakness and improved US fuel demand outlook. However, economic worries persist with unexpected German industrial orders decline and rise in US jobless claims.
Gold inches up after weak data fuels US rate cut bets
Dramatic gold price surge expected amid cautious Fed approach and weaker employment reports, signaling potential economic challenges ahead.
Dollar on the defensive after soft data, little relief for yen
Currency markets react to global economic trends, with sterling potentially shifting leadership from Rishi Sunak to Keir Starmer in the UK.
Rupee nearly flat wedged between yuan weakness, dip in US bond yields
Indian rupee's stability faces uncertainty pending the release of Fed's policy meeting minutes and U.S. ADP employment data for potential impact on future U.S. policy rates.
Inflation is down in Europe. But the European Central Bank is in no hurry to make more rate cuts
In June, inflation in the eurozone fell slightly to 2.5%, above the European Central Bank's target. The ECB remains cautious about adding more rate cuts after a recent reduction. Inflation is expected to remain between 2% and 3%. ECB President Lagarde emphasizes the need to control inflation before further rate cuts. The economy faces challenges with high rates impacting credit-sensitive sectors like real estate.
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India bond yields may see further uptick as US peers jump
Indian bond yields expected to increase amidst renewed Treasuries selloff. Benchmark 10-year yield likely to stay within 6.99%-7.03% range. U.S. yields rising, with expectations of a 46 bps rate cut by the Fed in 2024.
Oil holds near two-month high on higher demand outlook, possible rate cut
Exciting developments in the oil market as prices hold steady near recent highs, driven by robust demand projections and the possibility of U.S. interest rate cuts. The looming threat of Hurricane Beryl and reduced crude imports into Asia, especially China, add further intrigue to the market landscape.
JGB yields rise as global politics add to pressure from yen
Japanese bond yields surged on expectations of tighter Bank of Japan policy amid a weak yen. Global concerns over French and U.S. elections drove yields higher. Mizuho Securities forecasts continued increase in bond yields with uncertainty surrounding BOJ's tightening plans and potential rate hike at the July meeting.
Oil inches higher on summer demand outlook
Oil prices rose on supply deficit forecasts and OPEC+ cuts amid global economic challenges. Traders are cautious about rising non-OPEC+ output. Monitoring includes China's oil demand, the Atlantic hurricane season, and the impact of Hurricane Beryl.
Asian stocks stutter, euro gains after first round vote in France
The euro was 0.32% higher at $1.0747, while European stock futures rose 1% as exit polls showed Marine Le Pen's eurosceptic National Rally emerged ahead in the first round of the French vote but with fewer votes than some analysts had forecast.
Jobs, inflation data may break the US Treasury market out of narrow range
Bond market trends are closely tied to Powell's testimony, economic indicators, and Treasury yield movements. Factors like the recent Australia inflation rebound, central bank actions, and insights from Macquarie Group are key considerations for investors navigating market uncertainties.
Gold prices heads for quarterly rise; spotlight on inflation data
In the world of gold investment, tracking prices, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's stance is key. Market dynamics shift based on factors like GDP estimates, equipment spending, and spot silver prices. Understanding these nuances is crucial for making informed investment decisions in a constantly evolving economic environment.
Asia stocks down, yen slump keeps markets on intervention alert
Inflation concerns impact markets worldwide, driving bond yields up and Asian shares down. Currency markets watch as the yen weakens, prompting fears of intervention. Unexpected jumps in inflation in Australia and Canada add to market nerves before the Federal Reserve's upcoming data release.
Battered yen pinned near multi-decade low amid resilient dollar
U.S. Treasury yields drive market dynamics as the yen weakens, impacting global currencies. Analysts await U.S. PCE data for potential Japanese intervention, while political uncertainties in Europe add to market volatility. Higher U.S. yields influence bond markets globally, affecting currencies like Sterling and Antipodean currencies against a strong dollar.
Oil extends losses as strong dollar weighs on commodities markets
Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Monday due to a stronger dollar and concerns of higher interest rates. Brent crude futures slid to $84.84 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $80.34. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and issues in Ecuador impacted prices.
Oil prices ease on strong US dollar, mixed global economic news
WTI fell out of overbought territory as Fed's interest rate hikes to curb inflation impacted oil demand. The decline in crude prices was influenced by rising U.S. dollar and negative global economic news. U.S. business activity rose to a 26-month high in June with an employment rebound. Geopolitical tensions escalated with warnings of a trade war over electric vehicle imports.
Debt ceiling standoff could trigger US rating downgrade, TD's Goldberg says
Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, warns of a potential severe debt ceiling standoff in the U.S. in 2025, similar to the 2011 crisis, which could lead to another sovereign credit rating downgrade. Despite Congress suspending the debt ceiling until 2025, concerns over rising U.S. debt persist following forecasts by the Congressional Budget Office of significant deficits for fiscal years 2024 and 2025.
Oil prices slip as rate hike worries come into focus
Crude oil futures slid on Friday due to higher interest rates in Asia and the U.S., with Brent futures at $85.60 and U.S. crude at $81.20. Japan's core consumer prices rose by 2.5% from last year.
Dollar steadies; sterling dips ahead of inflation test
The dollar weakened after soft U.S. retail sales data increased expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while sterling dipped ahead of UK inflation data. Markets predict a 67% chance of rate cuts in September.
Fed seen on track to Sept rate cut after inflation data
The US government report indicates that consumer prices did not rise in May, potentially paving the way for interest-rate cuts in the coming months. The Fed is expected to hold the policy rate in its current 5.25%-5.5% range. The benign inflation report could set them up for a rate cut in September and another in December.
Rupee declines tracking Asian peers, forward premiums drop
The Indian rupee weakened on Monday due to a pullback in hopes of policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Stronger than expected U.S. labour market data boosted the dollar and U.S. bond yields. The dollar index was up 0.2% at 105.3. Benchmark Indian equity indexes hit record highs in early trading.
India bond yields seen rising tracking US peers
Indian government bond yields are expected to rise due to a spike in U.S. Treasury yields after strong economic data. The benchmark 10-year yield in India is likely to move in a 7.01%-7.06% range on Monday.
Gold slides 3% on double blow of strong jobs report, China data
Gold prices fell 3% to $2,304.54 after a strong U.S. jobs report dampened expectations for rate cuts, exacerbated by China's pause in gold purchases in May.
US stocks close slightly lower; jobs data strong but rates still high
Wall Street stocks ended slightly lower on Friday after strong U.S. jobs data raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. The Labor Department reported 272,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations, with a 4% unemployment rate.
Oil rises on strengthening Fed rate cut expectations
Oil prices rose in Asian trading on rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September and a rebound from a selloff linked to growing U.S. inventories and an OPEC+ supply increase.
US dollar gains after stronger-than-expected services sector data
The Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 53.8 last month from 49.4 in April. May's reading, the highest since August, overshot estimates of all 59 economists in a Reuters poll that had pegged the median expectation at 50.8.
Wall Street stocks end slightly higher as weak jobs data supports rate cut
U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as labor market data hinted at a Fed rate cut. Axos Financial dropped after Hindenburg Research shorted the stock.
Dollar wallows at multi-month lows as Fed cut bets grow
The dollar faced pressure as consumer price pressures stabilized, but upcoming U.S. payroll figures are being closely monitored by analysts like James Kniveton for economic strain.
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