US GDP GROWTH
IMF sees steady global growth, warns of slowing disinflation momentum
The IMF forecasts 3.2% global GDP growth in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025. US: 2.6% growth amid inflation, trade tensions. China: 5% boosted by consumption; facing a property crisis. Eurozone: slight upgrade. Japan: cut due to supply disruptions. Challenges: wage growth, protectionism, Georgieva’s warning, monetary easing delays, and high services prices.
China's GDP growth dips: Where is its economy headed?
China's GDP growth in the second quarter was 4.7%, below the expected 5.1%. The slowdown raises concerns about economic stability and calls for measures to stimulate growth. IMF projects a gradual slowdown in growth due to various factors including ageing population and property sector crisis. Policy meeting aims to outline strategies for promoting advanced manufacturing and boosting domestic consumption. Structural reforms are suggested to enhance productivity and address economic imbalances.
India’s world-beating GDP growth can’t sustain over time unless FM Sitharaman fixes this in the Union Budget
Budget 2024 and Private Investment | Private consumption and investment are key concerns for Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman ahead of the Union Budget. Q1FY25 saw new private investment plans hit a 20-year low at Rs 44,300 crore. Despite recent nascent signs of recovery, sustainable long-term growth requires robust private investment and consumption, supported by continued government capex and policy certainty.
Asian stocks mixed as dollar up on Trump-win bets: Markets wrap
Asian stocks show mixed reactions to Trump's assassination attempt. US dollar rises, while S&P 500 contracts remain stable. Bitcoin reaches $60,000. Analysts discuss potential market implications and focus shifts to China's key rate decision.
India to clock GDP growth of 7% in FY25: NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani
NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani predicts India's economy will grow around 7 per cent this fiscal year and maintain this rate for years, despite facing new challenges. The Reserve Bank of India forecasts a 7.2 per cent GDP growth rate for FY25. Virmani notes a recovery in private consumption post-pandemic, attributing it to a "double drought" situation. He believes coalition politics may slow privatisation in some states but remains optimistic overall. Virmani expects FDI to rise in emerging markets, including India, once US interest rates decrease.
Sectors linked to electrical, green energy, and railways may see a disproportionate increase in business: Vinayak Chatterjee
“There is a consensus, officially, that India's aspirational target is 8% GCFI, gross capital formation, and infrastructure, as a percentage of GDP, so that is my starting point. If in this budget year, you are going to try and reach that aspirational target of 8% GCFI, you need to spend Rs 13.5 lakh crore,” says Vinayak Chatterjee
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Mt 100 Kanchenjunga well within sight
FPIs have driven Sensex above 80,000, capitalizing on 7.2% GDP growth projections and fiscal prudence. The brief pullout is seen as temporary. Large caps gain focus amid rising valuations. Policy continuity, budget reforms, ministry formation, and positive monsoon prospects improve earnings visibility, enhancing India's appeal to FPIs for sustained investment.
GoI must focus on equitable growth and quality employment
The recent Annual Survey on Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) is a valuable source on informal enterprises provided by GoI that promises to tell us about these voters whose dreams lie unfulfilled. They have struggled in the world’s largest informal economy, India, in jobs without social protections and with lower pay.
US Fed hopeful of achieving 2 per cent inflation target soon
The U.S. Federal Reserve noted a lack of significant progress towards its 2 percent inflation target in its latest meeting. Despite this, there have been modest improvements in recent months. This conclusion was shared in the Fed policy minutes released on Wednesday.
Valuations are up... will profits keep pace?
The market's high valuations necessitate positive earnings surprises for comfort, with bond yields and investor sentiment influencing market trends significantly.
Recession looming large on US economy? What growth rate has been predicted by Fed Reserve body? Everything you may like to know
Recessions are fairly common in the US economy. There has been about one U.S. recession every five years or so since World War 2. But they don't last long. The average duration of a U.S. recession since World War II is just 11.1 months.
RBI aims to get inflation down to 4%, don't expect any rate cut this year: Amitabh Chaudhry, MD, Axis Bank
Axis Bank aims for sustained growth through NIM enhancement, market share expansion, and compliance strengthening under CEO Amitabh Chaudhry's leadership.
Tough to sustain GDP growth above 7.5%; time-wise correction in market likely: Neelkanth Mishra
As mutual funds are sitting with Rs 1 lakh crore of cash, whenever there is a 4-5% drop from the peak, there is a spate of buying. So equities as an asset class are not seeing sharp drawdowns and in the short term make it safer to invest in and attract more funds. That is the cycle we are in, says Neelkanth Mishra.
Economy on strong wicket after fiscal first quarter
India's economy showed strong first-quarter performance with surging manufacturing activity, robust GST collections, and record-high Sensex, alongside a rise in passenger car sales and new export orders from overseas markets, as highlighted by industry experts and economic indicators.
Indian economy poised for potentially stable high growth phase, says RBI's monetary policy panel member
RBI's monetary policy committee member Shashanka Bhide highlighted India's potential for stable high growth amidst significant risks, citing strong domestic demand, investment spending, and positive monsoon forecasts. He emphasised the importance of maintaining inflation aligned with targets to support growth, with the RBI projecting retail inflation at 4.5% for FY25. The MPC recently kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, focusing on sustaining economic momentum.
US weekly jobless claims drift lower
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended June 22, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The claims data included last Wednesday's Juneteenth National Independence Day, a new holiday. Claims tend to be volatile around public holidays.
Confident of achieving growth of more than 15%: Umesh Revankar, Shriram Finance
RBI is more focused on the unsecured loan disbursement where the usage is unknown. But where the usage is known, where it is going for business, there RBI and government both have been encouraging.
'Acche din' to continue for FD investors as high fixed deposit interest rates will not drop soon: All eyes on RBI MPC on June 7
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will likely keep the repo rate unchanged in the upcoming monetary policy committee review. The question now is how long will the high-FD rate regime continue. Also, what should be the best strategy for your short-term and long-term fixed deposits? ET Wealth Online spoke to experts and here's all you need to know.
Macro policy choices unclear, but work cut out on reforms agenda
In FY24, nominal GDP grew 9.6%, CPI inflation recorded 5.4%, and real GDP growth was estimated at 8.2%.
Govt to focus on capex & infra to propel next phase of growth: Indranil Sengupta
I would say that valuations that are concerned and whoever is getting into the market right now should also clearly take that into account. Because once you start losing the support of valuations, then obviously you are taking that much more of a risk. But then that said, I mean, a lot depends on where equity markets grow in the US because that clearly has a big impact globally.
Capital goods, utilities, infra & real estate sectors can see further re-rating: Mihir Vora
I think the more the uncertainty reduces, the higher the markets can go in terms of valuations and that applies to stocks specifically and that applies to the markets in general also.
Reality behind the 8.2% FY24 GDP growth is not as robust
The 8.2% FY24 GDP growth reflects a modest deceleration from 3QFY24 at 8.6%. Real gross value added growth slowed considerably in 4QFY24 to 6.3% from 8.3% in 1QFY24.
'We expect rupee to be the best-performing Asian currency in 2024'
India remains a top choice for global investors despite recent outflows, with a positive outlook for the Indian rupee and potential Fed rate cuts impacting the US dollar's performance.
FPIs take out Rs 25,586 cr from equities in May on poll jitters, attractive valuations in China
GDP growth numbers released on Friday painted a very optimistic picture. Q4FY24 GDP growth came in at 7.8 per cent surpassing the 6.7 per cent expectation, while the full-year FY24 growth stood at 8.2 per cent
Nasdaq falls 1%; Salesforce shares weigh on tech
Nasdaq dropped due to tech and communication services sector declines, and slower Q1 growth per Commerce Dept. report.
US economic growth last quarter is revised down from 1.6% rate to 1.3%, but consumers kept spending
The US economy grew less than initially estimated in the first quarter of this year, the government reported Thursday, due to weaker consumer spending. Overall, GDP growth in the first quarter was supported by consumer spending, business investment and government spending.
FPIs may adopt a cautious stance until the election results are clear
Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) in India may see a cautious approach until the election results are clear. India's economic performance attracts FPI flows driven by factors like interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth, along with a stable political environment.
India can become third largest economy by '27-28: Arvind Panagariya
"The growth in nominal dollar terms had been at about 10.2% during this period (2004-2024) and mind you that during this period we had to deal with the global financial crisis and then with Covid," Panagariya said, in his address at CII annual business summit.
India could become 3rd largest economy by 2027-28, extreme poverty in rural areas largely conquered: Arvind Panagariya
Arvind Panagariya, Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission, predicts that India could become the world's third-largest economy by 2027-28 if it sustains its growth trajectory of the past two decades. He notes that extreme poverty, which currently affects less than 3% of the population, has significantly declined, especially in rural areas. Panagariya emphasizes the need to address under-employment in agriculture by transitioning workers to the industrial and services sectors for faster urbanization.
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