US RATE HIKE
Telecom tariffs are decided by market dynamics, govt clarifies
Government stated it does not interfere with telecom rates, which are determined by market forces. Tariff changes are monitored by Trai. India offers some of the lowest mobile service costs globally.
US job growth moderates in June; unemployment rate rises to 4.1%
In June, job growth slowed with the unemployment rate at 4.1%, reported the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 206,000, while average hourly earnings increased 0.3%. Revised May data showed fewer jobs added. Wage growth moderation and disinflationary trends bolster the Federal Reserve's rate cut prospects. Monitoring these changes is crucial for economic assessment.
US weekly jobless claims rise labor market slows
The labor market shows signs of easing as unemployment benefits claims increase. Layoffs rise due to interest rates impacting demand, and challenges in seasonal data adjustments persist. Market anticipates Fed's potential rate cuts. Job cuts decrease in June, but higher than last year. Nonfarm payrolls data may reveal job increase. Job openings ratio remains steady, while Fed deliberates policy changes post-hikes. Continuing claims rise due to policy effects.
US job openings rise to 8.1 million despite higher interest rates
U.S. job openings increased slightly to 8.1 million in May, despite higher interest rates aimed at cooling the labor market, as reported by the Labor Department. Layoffs rose slightly, while the number of Americans quitting their jobs remained stable. The economy and job market have shown resilience despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to raise rates. Job openings have decreased since a peak in March 2022, signaling a possible slowdown in the economy.
JGB yields rise as global politics add to pressure from yen
Japanese bond yields surged on expectations of tighter Bank of Japan policy amid a weak yen. Global concerns over French and U.S. elections drove yields higher. Mizuho Securities forecasts continued increase in bond yields with uncertainty surrounding BOJ's tightening plans and potential rate hike at the July meeting.
Incomplete transmission could delay rate reversal by RBI
High food inflation and incomplete transmission of the 250 basis point policy rate hikes since May 2022 could delay the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) rate cut. Transmission through loan and deposit rates varied between 111 and 245 bps until May 2024, except for loans linked to external benchmarks, which had immediate full transmission.
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US inflation cools in May, boosting hopes of Fed rate cut
May's stable inflation, influenced by service costs and goods prices, sets the stage for potential Federal Reserve interest rate changes. The report highlights slight consumer spending growth and hints at the Fed's aim for a controlled economic slowdown through core inflation moderation.
Rate hikes for 5G monetisation to push Jio, Airtel ARPU by 16-17% - Analysts
Reliance Jio emphasizes 5G monetization and premium plans, focusing on ARPU growth. With new tariff plans boosting prices, the telco aims for strategic revenue enhancement. Balancing subscriber additions and network monetization, Jio navigates the evolving telecom landscape with confidence, while industry competition and market dynamics drive further strategic decisions.
US weekly jobless claims drift lower
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended June 22, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The claims data included last Wednesday's Juneteenth National Independence Day, a new holiday. Claims tend to be volatile around public holidays.
Asia stocks down, yen slump keeps markets on intervention alert
Inflation concerns impact markets worldwide, driving bond yields up and Asian shares down. Currency markets watch as the yen weakens, prompting fears of intervention. Unexpected jumps in inflation in Australia and Canada add to market nerves before the Federal Reserve's upcoming data release.
Asian shares shaky as investors wary before US inflation data
Asian stocks hesitated in early trade amid anticipation for a crucial U.S. inflation reading. Concerns over potential Japanese intervention lingered as the yen approached 160 per dollar. Japan and Taiwan stocks rallied, while China's market saw a slight decline. Fed comments and stable housing market data influenced rate cut expectations.
Oil prices slip as rate hike worries come into focus
Crude oil futures slid on Friday due to higher interest rates in Asia and the U.S., with Brent futures at $85.60 and U.S. crude at $81.20. Japan's core consumer prices rose by 2.5% from last year.
Karnataka fuel price hike: Rates still lower than neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra
The Congress-ruled Karnataka government's move to raise local tax on auto fuels pushed petrol prices above Rs 100 a litre and diesel to Rs 89, but rates are lower than neighbouring Andhra Pradesh which has the costliest fuel in the country, oil industry data showed. The Karnataka government on June 15 hiked local VAT (value added tax) from 25.92 per cent to 29.84 per cent on petrol and from 14.3 per cent to 18.4 per cent on diesel.
5 world market themes for the week ahead
Central bank decisions in Britain, Switzerland, and Norway will show the rate cutting trend, while retail sales data from the US and China will indicate consumer health. Europe gears up for the Euros 2024 tournament in Germany. Investors are monitoring cocoa supply issues in Ivory Coast, Ghana, and other countries like Brazil.
Bank of Japan to trim bond buying, keeps rates steady
Under Governor Kazuo Ueda, the Bank of Japan announced a tapering plan at its July meeting, aligning with previous decisions. The central bank's move towards normalising monetary policy comes amidst global central banks tightening policy to combat inflation.
US consumer inflation falls to 3.3 percent ahead of Fed rate decision
US consumer inflation ticked lower last month, according to US government data published Wednesday, giving the US Federal Reserve positive news shortly before it publishes its latest interest rate decision. The monthly inflation rate was unchanged from a month earlier, which was well below expectations.
JPMorgan, Citi scrap Fed rate-cut bets for July after jobs data
JPMorgan's chief US economist, Michael Feroli, stated in a report on Friday that "the recent momentum in job growth" indicates that the "broader" labor-market weakening, which the Fed mentioned could justify a rate cut, might take more than three months to materialize.
ECB jumps ahead of Fed, cuts interest rate by 25 bps for first time since 2019
ECB raises inflation forecast for 2024, 2025. Analysts say the quarter-point cut on Thursday would likely not usher in a swift series of further cuts as the bank waits to make sure inflation is under control while easing credit to help the economy. While inflation at an annual rate of 2.6% in May is well down from the peak of 10.6% in October 2022, the decline has slowed in recent months and inflation even ticked up slighly from 2.4% in April.
European Central Bank set to cut rates for the first time since 2019 even as inflation fight continues
All 82 economists polled by Reuters expected the ECB to trim its deposit rate to 3.75% on Thursday from a record 4.0%, in what would be its first cut since 2019. ECB policymakers have clearly telegraphed their intention to lower borrowing costs after seeing inflation in the 20 countries that share the euro fall from more than 10% in late 2022 to just above their 2% target in recent months.
Not with standing weekly loss, downside in gold likely to remain limited
Going by the action in bonds, the markets are still not giving much credence to the idea of a rate hike. The next week is quite crucial for the financial markets as many major data and reports will be released.
Asian markets fall after US data dent rate cut hopes
Asian markets fell on Friday following Wall Street's sell-off triggered by strong US data, raising concerns about the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts.
Japan's Nikkei stumbles as Nvidia earnings results loom
Japan's Nikkei share average fell 0.85% to 38,617.10 as investors awaited Nvidia's earnings, which will influence global stocks, including Wall Street and AI-related stocks. Chip stocks like Tokyo Electron and Advantest declined ahead of the results. The index previously hit a record intraday high and saw declines in Fast Retailing and Shin-Etsu Chemical.
Fed's Waller sees some progress on inflation, no rate hike needed
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday put a pin in speculation that interest rates may need to rise again, saying the latest inflation data is "reassuring" and the U.S. central bank's policy rate is set appropriately.
Fed's Powell: PPI mixed, next move unlikely to be a rate hike
Though he said "my confidence in that is not as high as it was," given faster than expected inflation through the first three months of the year, the U.S. central bank chief said it remained unlikely in his view that the Fed would have to raise rates any further, even if the prospect for rate cuts has become less certain.
Are US interest rates high enough to beat inflation? The Fed will take its time to find out
The sharp interest rate hikes of the past two years will likely take longer than previously expected to bring down inflation, several Federal Reserve officials have said in recent comments, suggesting there may be few, if any, rate cuts this year.
Fed officials mull whether rates high enough as inflation expectations jump
In an interview with Reuters, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he still thought inflation was likely to slow under the current monetary policy and allow the central bank to begin reducing its policy rate in 2024 - though perhaps by only a quarter of a percentage point and not until the final months of the year.
US weekly jobless claims increase more than expected
Labor market shows signs of easing as new unemployment benefit claims by Americans exceed expectations, reaching 231,000. The rise, partly due to seasonal factors, reflects adjustments post-interest rate hikes, with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Navigating economic horizons: RBI's role in FY 2024-2025
RBI's nuanced approach in FY 2024-2025 balances growth, inflation, and stability. Expect cautious yet proactive policy rates. Strategic reserves, global index inclusion, and fiscal discipline shape India's economic landscape.
US stocks rise as Fed rate-hike concerns alleviate
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that stubbornly high inflation would see a long-expected U.S. rate cut pushed back, he refused to entertain talk that rates might actually need to go up again.
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