Will Karnataka deputy CM DK Shivakumar take his chances in Channapatna byelection?

BENGALURU: Deputy chief minister DK Shivakumar, seasoned politician known for deft manoeuvring, has hinted at contesting the byelection to Channapatna assembly seat, a move that appears on the surface purely driven by soaring ambition. But it could well be a tricky roll of the dice.
Chief of Karnataka’s Congress unit, Shivakumar’s career spans a remarkable eight terms as MLA, four from Kanakapura where he is the incumbent.It’s widely known that he aims to succeed chief minister Siddaramaiah.
His intent to enter the byelection fray is to achieve that lofty end, but most regard it as a high-risk gamble, aimed at resurrecting his political stature which suffered a massive dent in the recent Lok Sabha elections.
Shivakumar had secured party tickets for eight members of his Vokkaliga community, but Congress fared poorly in the Vokkaliga heartland. Even Shivakumar’s brother and incumbent, DK Suresh, had perished in a wave unleashed by the BJP-JD(S) combine. It dealt a severe blow to Shivakumar’s ambitions within the party hierarchy.
An aide said, “He is now mulling taking the gamble of contesting from Channapatna to resurrect his political stature as the face of the Vokkaliga community.”
Challenges & opportunities
Channapatna, which has vot ed alternatively for Congress and JD(S), presents both challenges and opportunities for Shivakumar. The constituency’s history of electing prominent figures like former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy, who resigned as MLA after being elected to the Lok Sabha, and actor-turned-politician CP Yogeshwar underlines its significance in regional politics.
Shivakumar’s supporters are optimistic of his prospects, citing his political acumen and potential to secure a significant portion of the dominant Vokkaliga vote besides a large chunk of Ahinda votes.
However, political analysts caution against underestimating the risks. Vishwas Shetty, a seasoned observer of Karnataka politics, said, “A defeat could be a nail in the coffin of Shivakumar’s career as it would not only end his CM ambition but also his clout in the party. Will Siddaramaiah support Shivakumar, knowing that it may eventually hurt him, is another big risk.”
Concerns have also been raised about a potential backlash from voters who may perceive Shivakumar’s candidature as motivated by personal vendetta rather than genuine public service.
Prof Ravindra Reshme, political commentator, said: “Shivakumar’s foray may boomerang on him if voters perceive it as revenge politics.”
MULTIPLE LEVERS AT PLAY, SAYS SANDEEP SHASTRI
Psephologist Sandeep Shastri highlighted the multifaceted nature of Shivakumar’s potential candidature.
“There are multiple levers at play,” Shastri said. “Contesting from Channapatna is to challenge Kumaraswamy on his turf. There is speculation that his son, Nikhil, may contest. This would entail a bypoll to Kanakapura seat where Suresh would most likely contest.
There are many ifs and buts, but the possibilities boggle the mind. Would the deputy CM risk a major challenge? Is it a fight for the Vokkaliga vote? Is the aim to politically rehabilitate his brother? Is it a move to strengthen his position in the party after the Lok Sabha elections setback?” Regardless of the reason, Shivakumar’s candidature will have far-reaching consequences for both Congress and the opposition.