Rain shortfall in June at 23%; 6 dists on yellow alert today

Kochi: As the first month of southwest monsoon season ended, Kerala had 23% deficiency, receiving 515.6mm rainfall against normal of 672.3mm.
Meanwhile, yellow alert has been sounded for Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam Alappuzha, Kozhikode, Kannur and Kasaragod on Tuesday while it’s for Thrissur, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Kannur and Kasaragod on Wednesday. Thunderstorms with lightning are very likely at one or two places till July 5.
Squally weather with wind speed 35-45kmph gusting to 55 kmph likely along and off Kerala coast.Incois issued high wave and swell surge watch for Alappuzha, Ernakulam, Kannur, Kasaragod, Kollam, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur.
IMD said there will be heavy rainfall activity in the state for the next three days. The off-shore trough at mean sea level along Maharashtra-Kerala coasts persists. Strong south westerly winds prevail in the lower levels over Kerala and Lakshadweep region. Under its influence, widespread rainfall activity is very likely to occur at isolated places in Kerala on July 2-3.
June, the onset month of southwest monsoon, has been a deficient season for the last several years in Kerala. It has been picking pace in early- or mid-July and then increasing proportionately in Aug and Sep.
This year, the highest June shortage was in Idukki and Wayanad with 36%, followed by Ernakulam with 34% and Alappuzha and Kozhikode with 26%.
The rainfall pattern in June from 2015-2024 shows that it has been deficient in all years except in Kerala flood year of 2018 when it was in excess. In 2022, Kerala had 53% and 2023, it was 60% shortage. Last year, Kasaragod, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Palakkad, Thrissur and Wayanad had large deficiencies of over 60%. This year, however, it has been much better with a good pre-onset rainfall and an active spell in June. However, the pattern has been of short intense spell, accompanied by thunder, lightning and rough seas.
In its long-range forecast for July, IMD on Monday said that Kerala is likely to get normal to above normal rainfall. It said that above-normal rainfall can significantly benefit agriculture and water resources but also brings potential risks such as flooding, landslides, surface transport disruptions, public health challenges and ecosystem damage. To manage these risks effectively, it is essential to reinforce infrastructure, utilize IMD’s early warnings, enhance surveillance and conservation efforts, and establish robust response systems in vulnerable sectors.
In contrast, above-normal maximum temperatures are likely along the west coast during this month.