Assembly elections: BJP hits the ground running to counter INDIA bloc's Lok Sabha gains

NEW DELHI: The BJP, which failed to get majority on its own in the just concluded Lok Sabha elections, has taken a head-start for the assembly elections in three key states due later this year. Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand will vote to elect a new government between October and December this year. BJP chief JP Nadda on Monday appointed party leaders Bhupinder Yadav and Ashwini Vaishnaw as state election incharge and co-incharge for Maharashtra, while Dharmendra Pradhan and Biplab Kumar Dev have been made election incharges for Haryana.In Jharkhand, the BJP has picked senior leader Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma as the party's election incharges.
First electoral test after LS polls
The assembly elections will be first litmus test for both the BJP and the INDIA bloc. The saffron party is still smarting from its below-expectation performance in Lok Sabha elections. The BJP did win 240 Lok Sabha seats to emerge as the single largest party, which was more than the combined total of all the opposition parties. But the tally was way behind its much-hyped claim of 370 seats for the party and "400-paar" for the ruling coalition NDA. Also, the reduced number of 240 meant that the party is now dependent on its allies for the survival of the government. Contrast this to the overwhelming mandate BJP received in 2014 and 2019 - when it won a majority on its own with 282 and 303 seats respectively. This perhaps explains why the BJP's 2024 performance was not good enough.
But why are these elections so important for the saffron party?
Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand have been BJP bastions for long. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 23 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra, 10 out of 10 seats in Haryana and 11 out of 14 seats in Jharkhand. In 2014 also, the party had performed very well in these states: 23 in Maharashtra, 7 in Haryana and 12 in Jharkhand. Little wonder, these states were among the ones that were supposed to power the BJP's ambitious target of "400-paar." However, the voters in these states had a surprise in store for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The saffron party won only 9 seats in Maharashtra, 5 in Haryana and 8 in Jharkhand.
What makes this Lok Sabha result more worrying for the BJP is the fact that traditionally people of these states have voted in huge numbers for the saffron party in national elections even if they have chosen some other party in the state elections.
An example of this was in 2018 when the Congress defeated the BJP in the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and formed its government ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, when it came to the national elections, the people of the three states voted overwhelmingly for the BJP once again giving the party 24 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, 9 out of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh and 24 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan.
With assembly elections just months away, the BJP has to act fast and get its house in order in the three key states. While it has to defend its government in Maharashtra and Haryana, in Jharkhand it will have to wrest it back from the INDIA bloc.
In Maharashtra particularly, with a RSS-linked magazine questioning the wisdom of BJP's alliance with Ajit Pawar, the saffron party will have to take some quick decisions. The BJP contested Lok Sabha elections in alliance with Eknath Shinde led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP. Both these leaders had split their parties to joined hands with the BJP. There are reports that the BJP has commissioned a survey to assess if it should fight the assembly elections in the state alone or in alliance with these two parties.
Haryana has already seen a leadership change and the BJP would hope that it marks the beginning of party's course correction in the state. In Jharkhand, the BJP would try to capitalise on the arrest of former chief minister Hemant Soren and senior Congress leader Alamgir Alam to put the ruling coalition under pressure.
Can INDIA bloc continue with its dream run?
The opposition's INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc surprised everyone, including pollsters, with their better-than-expectation performance in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. But will they be able to carry the momentum forward?
Well, in Maharashtra at least they have shown the urgency and the need to act fast to consolidate their gains. The first meeting of the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance partners - Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar's NCP - has already been held. The top leaders have made the right noises for the electoral battle ahead. However, to keep the momentum going, they will first have to smoothly negotiate the first hurdle of seat-sharing. After the meeting, senior leader Sharad Pawar had a backhanded compliment for PM Modi as he claimed that the opposition alliance won in most of the seats where the Prime Minister campaigned.
In Jharkhand and Haryana, the opposition alliance will have to make quick moves to counter a determined BJP. While opposition parties in these three states have had a better rate of success against the BJP in state elections, they would do well not to become complacent and fritter away the Lok Sabha advantage.