2012 competitiveness in North Carolina state legislative elections

August 16, 2012

By Tyler King

MADISON, Wisconsin: North Carolina's legislative elections in 2012 are more competitive than most of the country, based on Ballotpedia's Competitiveness index which captures the extent of electoral competitiveness exhibited in state legislative elections.

About the Competitiveness index:
The Ballotpedia state legislative competitive index looks at three factors: is the incumbent running for re-election in a district; if so, does he or she draw a primary challenge; and are there two major party candidates in the general election.

Ballotpedia's index is created by summing the three percentages and then dividing by three. Each state is given 1 point for each percentage. Then, the points are added up and divided by three to establish the index rating. 1 is least competitive and 100 equals most competitive.

The comprehensive 2012 state legislative competitive index will be released following the completion of the primaries in all 44 states with 2012 state legislative elections. It will examine all 6,016 state legislative seats that are up for election on November 6, 2012.

Once a state releases official primary candidate lists, Ballotpedia staff analyzes the data to determine primary competitiveness. All 44 states holding 2012 state legislative elections have been analyzed by Ballotpedia.

North Carolina in 2012:
North Carolina's filing deadline was on February 29, 2012. It was the 7th state to be analyzed by Ballotpedia staff and the inclusion of its data brought the national index to 31.99 in 2012.

In North Carolina, there are 170 total state legislative seats with elections in 2012 and most current incumbents are seeking re-election.

Of those 170, 50 are State Senate seats and 120 are State House seats. A total of 127 incumbents (74.7%) are seeking re-election this year. Just 39 (30.7%) incumbents running for re-election face primary opposition. Additionally, there are 45 (26.5%) districts where an incumbent did not seek re-election within that district. For November's general elections, there will be 103 (60.6%) seats where more than one major party candidate will appear on the ballot.

Nationwide Index
The current nationwide index is 36.90 • 44 states analyzed • (updated August 23, 2012)

Comparison to 2010:
In 2010, North Carolina ranked 19th in overall competitiveness.

• 10.6% of Districts were open seats, increasing to 26.5% in 2012.
• 25.7% of incumbents faced primary opposition, increasing to 30.7% in 2012.
• 67.1% of Districts had more than one major party candidate in the general election, compared to 60.6% in 2012.
• North Carolina's 2010 competitiveness index was 34.5, compared to 39.3 in 2012.

See also

• Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Analysis for 2012 (updated after each state's ballot access deadline)
• 2012 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
  • Primary competitiveness in 2012 state legislative elections
  • Open seats in the 2012 state legislative elections
  • Incumbents with no primary challenger in the 2012 state legislative elections
  • Incumbents defeated in 2012's state legislative elections
  • Challengers who defeated incumbents in 2012's state legislative elections