Arizona gubernatorial election, 2014

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Arizona Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date:
August 26, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Race rating: Lean Republican

November 4 Election Winner:
Doug Ducey Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Jan Brewer Republican Party
JanBrewer Portrait.jpg

Arizona State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
GovernorSecretary of StateAttorney General
Down Ballot
Mine Inspector, Treasurer, Superintendent, Public Service Commissioner

Battleground Races
Arizona State Senate

Current trifecta for Republicans
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State executive offices in Arizona
Flag of Arizona.png

The Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, following a primary on August 26. Incumbent Jan Brewer, a Republican who went from Arizona Secretary of State to Arizona Governor following former Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano's 2009 departure, won a full term as governor in 2010 and was ineligible for re-election in 2014 because of term limits. Brewer initially considered mounting a legal challenge to the term limit laws barring her from seeking a second consecutive four-year term, but ultimately conceded the issue. Doug Ducey (R) won the race against Fred DuVal (D) to replace Brewer.

In the months prior to the general election, the race was rated "Likely R" by The Cook Political Report, predicting that another Republican would likely follow Brewer in the position.[1] Meanwhile, Governing rated the race between major party nominees Ducey and DuVal as a "Toss-up."[2] Learn more about Brewer, the 2014 candidates and the hotly contested Republican primary by jumping to the race background section.

The gubernatorial contest was not the only race on the November ballot that could have shifted the balance of power in Arizona. The Arizona State Senate was identified by Ballotpedia as one of the top 20 legislative chambers to watch in 2014. Both legislative chambers and the governor's office were held by the Republican Party, making Arizona a state government trifecta. Republicans maintained trifecta status following the 2014 election.

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Arizona utilizes a semi-closed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party's primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party's primary.[3][4][5]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

Candidates

General election

Republican Party Doug Ducey Green check mark transparent.png[6][7]
Democratic Party Fred DuVal[8]
Libertarian Party Barry J. Hess[9][10]
Independent (Americans Elect) J.L. Mealer[11]
Grey.png (Write-in) J. Johnson
Grey.png (Write-in) Diana-Elizabeth Kennedy
Grey.png (Write-in) Brian Bailey[12]
Grey.png (Write-in) Carey Dolego[12]
Republican Party (Write-in) Alice Novoa
Unaffiliated, Curtis Woolsey

Term-limited

Republican Party Jan Brewer - Incumbent

Lost in the primary

Republican Party Mike Aloisi[13]
Republican Party Ken Bennett[14]
Republican Party Christine Jones[15]
Republican Party (Write-in) Alice Lukasik[16]
Republican Party Frank Riggs[17]
Republican Party Scott Smith[18][19]
Republican Party Andrew Thomas[6][20]

Results

General election

Governor of Arizona, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDoug Ducey 53.4% 805,062
     Democratic Fred DuVal 41.6% 626,921
     Libertarian Barry J. Hess 3.8% 57,337
     Americans Elect J.L. Mealer 1% 15,432
     Nonpartisan Write-ins 0.1% 1,664
Total Votes 1,506,416
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State

Primary election

Republican primary

Governor of Arizona Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDoug Ducey 37.2% 200,607
Scott Smith 22.1% 119,107
Christine Jones 16.7% 89,922
Ken Bennett 11.5% 62,010
Andrew Thomas 8.1% 43,822
Frank Riggs 4.5% 24,168
Mike Aloisi (Write-in) 0% 27
Alice Lukasik (Write-in) 0% 27
Total Votes 539,690
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State.

Democratic primary

  • Uncontested

Race background

Term limits for Gov. Brewer

Incumbent Jan Brewer (R) was term-limited from seeking re-election, which left the seat open for the 2014 election. The race was rated Likely R by The Cook Political Report, meaning Brewer was likely to be succeeded by another Republican according to their assessment.[21] Governing rated the general election race between Doug Ducey (R) and Fred DuVal (D) as a Toss-up.[22]

Brewer was originally appointed to the position in 2009, and she was then elected to it in 2010. Arizona's term limit laws preclude any individual who has occupied the governor's office during two consecutive terms from running for re-election. Brewer asserted that the law did not adequately account for the conditions of her incomplete first term, but she did not pursue a court challenge for an exemption.[23]

Republican primary

Candidates in the GOP primary included outgoing Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey, Secretary of State Ken Bennett, Mesa Mayor Scott Smith, and former GoDaddy.com Executive Vice President Christine Jones. Ducey won the primary with 37.2 percent of the vote, followed by Smith in second place with 22.1 percent.

Democratic primary

Former Arizona Board of Regents President Fred DuVal won the Democratic nomination by default as the only candidate to file in the primary.[24]

Debates

September 29 debate

The Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission hosted a debate featuring Doug Ducey (R), Fred DuVal (D), Barry J. Hess (L) and Americans Elect candidate J.L. Mealer. The four candidates disagreed over the state's expansion of Medicaid, a health-insurance program for low-income residents, under the Affordable Care Act. Ducey, who opposed the expansion prior to implementation, said he would allow continued expansion over a three-year period where the federal government provides matching funds. DuVal and Mealer voiced support for the expansion, with DuVal noting that repeal would be burdensome not only to patients but the state economy. Hess said he would end the expansion because its success has led to excessive tax increases.[25]

The debate also highlighted differences among the major party candidates over Gov. Jan Brewer's decision to block issuance of driver's licenses to young adults who came to the United States without proper documentation. Ducey said he would continue the policy if elected. DuVal said that repealing the prohibition would be his first act as governor.[25]

Polls

General election
Ducey vs. DuVal vs. Hess

Arizona Governor - General election match-ups
Poll Doug Ducey (R) Fred DuVal (D)Barry J. Hess (L)Undecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
American Encore
October 20-22, 2014
42%35%7%15%+/-4601
Moore Information
October 7-8, 2014
36%39%3%22%+/-4.9400
Keating (D-Restore Arizona's Future PAC)
September 17-19, 2014
41%39%7%13%+/-4.0600
Terrance (R-Arizona Free Enterprise Club)
September 15-17, 2014
44%38%6%11%+/-4.5505
The Arizona Republic
August 24-25, 2014
35%35%12%18%+/-4.0588
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)
February 3-6, 2014
32%32%6%30%+/-3.5500
AVERAGES 38.33% 36.33% 6.83% 18.17% +/-4.15 532.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected].

Ducey vs. Duval

Governor of Arizona - Ducey vs. DuVal
Poll Doug Ducey (R) Fred DuVal (D)UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
New York Times/CBS/YouGov
October 16-23, 2014
50%40%10%+/-42,621
Rasmussen Reports
October 14-16, 2014
47%42%10%+/-31,056
New York Times/CBS/YouGov
September 20-October 1, 2014
50%39%11%+/-32,808
Rasmussen Reports
August 27-28, 2014
40%40%13%+/-4.0850
Susquehanna Polling and Research
November 2013
36%33%31%+/--600
AVERAGES 44.6% 38.8% 15% +/-1.2 1,587
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected].

Primary polling
Republican primary

Arizona Governor - GOP Primary
Poll Ken Bennett Doug DuceyChristine JonesFrank RiggsScott SmithAndrew ThomasUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Harper Polling
August 19-20, 2014
14%32%16%2%19%7%10%+/-3.44812
Arizona Automobile Dealers Association
August 15, 2014
10%31%16%3%23%7%10%1,300
Harper Polling
July 16-17, 2014
12%23%21%1%13%7%22%+/-3.29885
Gravis Marketing
July 14, 2014
7%28%19%1%14%8%24%+/-4.0691
Magellan Strategies
July 9-10, 2014
11%26%22%2%14%6%19%+/-4.02593
Harper Polling
June 25-26, 2014
12%33%15%2%14%3%22%+/-3.48791
AVERAGES 11% 28.83% 18.17% 1.83% 16.17% 6.33% 17.83% +/-3.04 845.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected].

Republican primary

Arizona Governor - GOP primary
Poll Ken Bennett Christine JonesAl MelvinAndrew ThomasDoug DuceyScott SmithUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Susquehanna Polling and Research
(November 2013)
20%4%2%4%8%6%53%+/--245
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected].


Campaign media

General election

Doug Ducey

Doug Ducey ad: Different (October 15, 2014)

Fred DuVal

Fred DuVal ad: Trust (September 19, 2014)
Fred DuVal ad: Forward (October 22, 2014)

Outside organizations

Republican Governors Association

RGA ad: What is Fred DuVal Hiding? (October 14, 2014)

Primary election

Doug Ducey

Doug Ducey: "Direct Message" - Posted to YouTube at 4/29/14

Scott Smith

Proven Results - Posted to YouTube 7/10/14
Protecting Arizona - Posted to YouTube 7/9/14
Scott Smith for Arizona Governor 2014 - Posted to YouTube 6/10/14

Past elections

2010

On November 2, 2010, Jan Brewer won re-election to the office of Governor of Arizona. She defeated Terry Goddard (D), Barry J. Hess (LBT), Larry Gist (Green) and various write-in challengers in the general election.

Governor of Arizona, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJan Brewer Incumbent 54.3% 938,934
     Democratic Terry Goddard 42.4% 733,935
     Libertarian Barry J. Hess 2.2% 38,722
     Green Larry Gist 0.9% 16,128
     K.A. Write-ins 0.1% 2,017
Total Votes 1,729,736
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State.

2006

Arizona Governor, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJanet Napolitano Incumbent 62.6% 959,830
     Republican Len Munsil 35.4% 543,528
     Libertarian Barry J. Hess, II 2% 30,268
     Write-in Arthur Ray Arvizu 0% 10
     Write-in Robert B. Winn 0% 3
     Write-in Brian Wright 0% 6
Total Votes 1,533,645
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State

2002

Arizona Governor, 2002
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJanet Napolitano 46.2% 566,284
     Republican Matt Salmon 45.2% 554,465
     Independent Richard Mahoney 6.9% 84,947
     Libertarian Barry Hess 1.7% 20,356
     Write-in Assorted 0% 59
Total Votes 1,226,111
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State

Voter turnout

Political scientist Michael McDonald's United States Elections Project studied voter turnout in the 2014 election by looking at the percentage of eligible voters who headed to the polls. McDonald used voting-eligible population (VEP), or the number of eligible voters independent of their current registration status, to calculate turnout rates in each state on November 4. He also incorporated ballots cast for the highest office in each state into his calculation. He estimated that 81,687,059 ballots were cast in the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, representing 35.9 percent of the VEP.[26] By comparison, 61.6 percent of VEP voted in the 2008 presidential election and 58.2 percent of VEP voted in the 2012 presidential election.[27]

Quick facts

  • According to PBS Newshour, voter turnout in the 2014 midterms was the lowest since the 1942 midterms, which took place during the nation's involvement in World War II.[28]
  • Forty-three states and the District of Columbia failed to surpass 50 percent turnout in McDonald's analysis.
  • The three states with the lowest turnout according to McDonald's analysis were Texas (28.3 percent), Tennessee (28.6 percent), and Indiana (28.8 percent).
  • Maine (58.5 percent), Wisconsin (56.5 percent), and Colorado (54.5 percent) were the three states with the highest turnout.
  • There were only 12 states that increased voter turnout in 2014 compared to the 2010 midterm elections.[29]

Note: Information from the United States Elections Project was last updated on December 16, 2014.

Campaign finance

Comprehensive donor information for this election has been collected by Follow the Money. Based on available campaign finance records, the candidates raised a total of $21,778,948 during the election. This information was last updated on May 9, 2015.[30]

Campaign Contribution Totals
Candidate Office Result Contributions
Doug Ducey Republican Party Arizona Governor Won $8,081,966
Christine Jones Republican Party Arizona Governor Defeated $5,554,672
Fred DuVal Democratic Party Arizona Governor Defeated $4,668,341
Scott Smith Republican Party Arizona Governor Defeated $1,652,090
Ken Bennett Republican Party Arizona Governor Defeated $786,082
Andrew Thomas Republican Party Arizona Governor Defeated $763,957
Frank Riggs Republican Party Arizona Governor Defeated $225,149
Al Melvin Democratic Party Arizona Governor Defeated $35,009
J. Johnson Grey.png Arizona Governor Defeated $5,821
Barry J. Hess Libertarian Party Arizona Governor Defeated $3,634
J.L. Mealer Grey.png Arizona Governor Defeated $1,922
Alice Novoa Republican Party Arizona Governor Defeated $305
Carey Dolego Grey.png Arizona Governor Defeated $0
Diana-Elizabeth Kennedy Grey.png Arizona Governor Defeated $0
Curtis Woolsey Arizona Governor Defeated $0
Brian Bailey Grey.png Arizona Governor Defeated $0
Grand Total Raised $21,778,948

Key deadlines

Deadline Event
May 28, 2014 Filing deadline for major party candidates
July 17, 2014 Filing deadline for write-in candidates (Primary)
August 26, 2014 Primary election
September 25, 2014 Filing deadline for write-in candidates (General)
November 4, 2014 General election
December 1, 2014 Official Canvass of general election results
January 5, 2015 Inauguration day for state executive officials in general election

Recent news

The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for Arizona + Governor + Election + 2014


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. The Cook Political Report, "Governors Race Ratings 2014," September 15, 2014
  2. Governing, "2014 Governors Races," September 10, 2014
  3. National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed July 19, 2024
  4. Citizens Clean Elections Commission, "Primary Election," accessed July 19, 2024
  5. Arizona State Legislature, "Arizona Revised Statutes 16-467," accessed July 19 2024
  6. 6.0 6.1 East Valley Tribune, State treasurer Doug Ducey files paperwork to explore Ariz governor run, July 23, 2013
  7. Doug Ducey for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed September 1, 2013
  8. Fred DuVal Governor 2014, accessed April 2, 2013
  9. ABC 15, LIST: Race heats up for Arizona Governor, January 9, 2014
  10. The Republic, "Libertarian candidate to be on ballot in Arizona governor's race after GOP challenge dismissed," June 19, 2014
  11. J.L. Mealer Governor 2014, accessed July 25, 2013
  12. 12.0 12.1 Arizona Secretary of State, "2014 General Election Writein Candidates," accessed September 29, 2014 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "candlist" defined multiple times with different content
  13. Arizona Secretary of State, "2014 Primary Election Writein Candidates," accessed July 3, 2014
  14. Eastern Arizona Courier, "Bennett announces candidacy," September 17, 2013
  15. Christine Jones for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 19, 2013
  16. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named fulllisting
  17. The Arizona Republic, "Former California congressman enters Arizona governor race," January 23, 2014
  18. azcentral.com, "Mesa Mayor Smith will quit to run for governor," January 9, 2014
  19. Politico, "Republican mayor Scott Smith rises in Arizona," March 8, 2013
  20. The Arizona Republic, "Disbarred former Maricopa County Attorney Thomas to run for governor," April 26, 2013
  21. The Cook Political Report, "Governors Race Ratings 2014," September 15, 2014
  22. Governing, "2014 Governors Races," September 10, 2014
  23. USA Today, "Facing term limit, Ariz. Gov. Brewer won't run again," March 12, 2014
  24. AZCentral, "Fred DuVal sees pros, cons of no primary challenger," May 8, 2014
  25. 25.0 25.1 12 News & The Arizona Republic, "Governor candidates debate Arizona highs, lows," September 30, 2014
  26. United States Elections Project, "2014 November General Election Turnout Rates," November 7, 2014
  27. TIME, "Voter Turnout in Midterm Elections Hits 72-Year Low," November 10, 2014
  28. PBS, "2014 midterm election turnout lowest in 70 years," November 10, 2014
  29. U.S. News & World Report, "Midterm Turnout Down in 2014," November 5, 2014
  30. Follow the Money, "Overview of Arizona 2014 elections," accessed May 9, 2015