Colorado's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Colorado's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 17, 2020
Primary: June 30, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Scott Tipton (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Colorado
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Tilt Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Colorado's 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th
Colorado elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Colorado, held elections in 2020.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
March 17, 2020
June 30, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Scott Tipton, who was first elected in 2010.


Lauren Boebert defeated Tipton in the Republican primary 55% to 45%. Diane Mitsch Bush defeated James Iacino in the Democratic primary 61% to 39%.

Lauren Boebert won election in the general election for U.S. House Colorado District 3.

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.

Colorad's 3rd Congressional District is located in western and southern Colorado and includes Alamosa, Archuleta, Conejos, Costilla, Custer, Delta, Dolores, Garfield, Gunnison, Hinsdale, Huerfano, Jackson, La Plata, Lake, Mesa, Mineral, Moffat, Montezuma, Montrose, Ouray, Pitkin, Pueblo, Rio Blanco, Rio Grande, Routt, Saguache, San Juan, and San Miguel counties. A portion of Eagle County is also included in the district. [4]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 46.1 45.2
Republican candidate Republican Party 51.6 51.4
Difference 5.5 6.2

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Colorado did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Colorado District 3

Lauren Boebert defeated Diane Mitsch Bush, John Keil, and Critter Milton in the general election for U.S. House Colorado District 3 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/LaurenBoebert.jpg
Lauren Boebert (R)
 
51.4
 
220,634
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Diane-Mitsch-Bush.jpg
Diane Mitsch Bush (D)
 
45.2
 
194,122
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
John Keil (L)
 
2.4
 
10,298
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CritterMilton.png
Critter Milton (Unity Party)
 
1.0
 
4,265

Total votes: 429,319
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Colorado District 3

Diane Mitsch Bush defeated James Iacino in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Colorado District 3 on June 30, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Diane-Mitsch-Bush.jpg
Diane Mitsch Bush
 
61.3
 
65,377
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/James-Iacino.jpg
James Iacino
 
38.7
 
41,200

Total votes: 106,577
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Colorado District 3

Lauren Boebert defeated incumbent Scott Tipton in the Republican primary for U.S. House Colorado District 3 on June 30, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/LaurenBoebert.jpg
Lauren Boebert
 
54.6
 
58,678
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Scott_Tipton.JPG
Scott Tipton
 
45.4
 
48,805

Total votes: 107,483
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Colorado District 3

John Keil advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Colorado District 3 on April 13, 2020.

Candidate
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
John Keil (L)

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Unity Party convention

Unity Party convention for U.S. House Colorado District 3

Critter Milton advanced from the Unity Party convention for U.S. House Colorado District 3 on April 4, 2020.

Candidate
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CritterMilton.png
Critter Milton (Unity Party)

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 64 Colorado counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Conejos County, Colorado 3.56% 9.22% 12.93%
Huerfano County, Colorado 6.61% 8.27% 11.23%
Las Animas County, Colorado 15.60% 2.65% 7.04%
Pueblo County, Colorado 0.50% 13.99% 14.97%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Colorado with 48.2 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 43.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Colorado voted Republican 63.3 percent of the time and Democratic 36.7 percent of the time. Colorado voted Republican in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, but voted Democratic in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Colorado. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[5][6]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 37 out of 65 state House districts in Colorado with an average margin of victory of 27.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 40 out of 65 state House districts in Colorado with an average margin of victory of 24.8 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 28 out of 65 state House districts in Colorado with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 25 out of 65 state House districts in Colorado with an average margin of victory of 25.8 points. Trump won one district controlled by a Democrat heading into the 2018 elections.


District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+6, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 6 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Colorado's 3rd Congressional District the 180th most Republican nationally.[7]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.14. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.14 points toward that party.[8]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[9] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[10] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Diane Mitsch Bush Democratic Party $5,064,049 $5,040,014 $28,455 As of December 31, 2020
Lauren Boebert Republican Party $2,989,470 $2,632,676 $356,794 As of December 31, 2020
John Keil Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Critter Milton Unity Party $12,013 $12,013 $0 As of November 4, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[11]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[12][13][14]

Race ratings: Colorado's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 3rd Congressional District candidates in Colorado in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Colorado, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Colorado 3rd Congressional District Major party 1,500 1,500 or 10% of votes cast in last primary (whichever is less) K.A. K.A. 3/17/2020 Source
Colorado 3rd Congressional District Unaffiliated 1,500 1,500, or 2.5% of votes cast for office in last election (whichever is less) K.A. K.A. 7/9/2020 Source

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Bluedot.png Diane Mitsch Bush

Supporting Mitsch Bush

"Job" - Mitsch Bush campaign ad, released September 23, 2020

Opposing Boebert

"94 Percent" - Mitsch Bush campaign ad, released September 10, 2020


Satellite group ads

Opposing Boebert

"Believer" - Women Vote Project ad, released October 13, 2020
"Above the Law" - Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ad, released September 29, 2020

Opposing Mitsch Bush

"Name It" - National Republican Congressional Committee ad, released October 16, 2020
"Streets" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released October 15, 2020

District election history

2018

See also: Colorado's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Colorado District 3

Incumbent Scott Tipton defeated Diane Mitsch Bush, Mary Malarsie, and Gaylon Kent in the general election for U.S. House Colorado District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Scott_Tipton.JPG
Scott Tipton (R)
 
51.5
 
173,205
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Diane-Mitsch-Bush.jpg
Diane Mitsch Bush (D) Candidate Connection
 
43.6
 
146,426
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Mary Malarsie (Independent)
 
3.2
 
10,831
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/gkent.jpg
Gaylon Kent (L)
 
1.7
 
5,727
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
12

Total votes: 336,201
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Colorado District 3

Diane Mitsch Bush defeated Karl Hanlon and Arn Menconi in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Colorado District 3 on June 26, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Diane-Mitsch-Bush.jpg
Diane Mitsch Bush Candidate Connection
 
64.1
 
44,809
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Karl_Hanlon.jpg
Karl Hanlon
 
27.7
 
19,368
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Arn_Menconi.png
Arn Menconi
 
8.2
 
5,754

Total votes: 69,931
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Colorado District 3

Incumbent Scott Tipton advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Colorado District 3 on June 26, 2018.

Candidate
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Scott_Tipton.JPG
Scott Tipton

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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2016

See also: Colorado's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Scott Tipton (R) defeated Gail Schwartz (D) and Gaylon Kent (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Tipton defeated Alex Beinstein in the Republican primary on June 28, 2016.[15][16][17]

U.S. House, Colorado District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngScott Tipton Incumbent 54.6% 204,220
     Democratic Gail Schwartz 40.3% 150,914
     Libertarian Gaylon Kent 5.1% 18,903
Total Votes 374,037
Source: Colorado Secretary of State


U.S. House, Colorado, District 3 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngScott Tipton Incumbent 78.9% 43,992
Alex Beinstein 21.1% 11,790
Total Votes 55,782
Source: Colorado Secretary of State

2014

See also: Colorado's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of Colorado held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Scott Tipton (R) defeated Abel Tapia (D), Travis Mero (L) and Tisha Casida (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Colorado District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngScott Tipton Incumbent 58% 163,011
     Democratic Abel Tapia 35.7% 100,364
     Independent Tisha Casida 4% 11,294
     Libertarian Travis Mero 2.3% 6,472
Total Votes 281,141
Source: Colorado Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. Colorado is a vote-by-mail state. In order to vote by mail, registration must be completed at least eight days prior to the election. If voting in person on Election Day, a voter can register at the polls.
  2. Colorado is a vote-by-mail state. In order to vote by mail, registration must be completed at least eight days prior to the election. If voting in person on Election Day, a voter can register at the polls.
  3. 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Colorado is a vote-by-mail state. Early voting dates and polling hours apply to vote centers where individuals can instead vote in person.
  4. United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  5. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  6. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  7. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  8. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  9. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  10. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  11. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  12. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  13. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  14. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  15. Colorado Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Election Candidate List," accessed May 2, 2016
  16. Politico, "Colorado House Primaries Results," June 28, 2016
  17. Colorado Secretary of State, "2016 General Election Candidate List," accessed September 5, 2016


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