Florida's 26th Congressional District election, 2020 (August 18 Republican primary)

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Florida's 26th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 24, 2020
Primary: August 18, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (Democratic)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Florida's 26th Congressional District
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Florida elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
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U.S. House elections, 2020

Carlos Gimenez defeated Omar Blanco to win the Republican nomination in Florida's 26th Congressional District in a primary on August 18, 2020. As of 10:15 p.m. Eastern Time on election night, Gimenez had 60% of the vote to Blanco's 40%. Heading into the election, the incumbent was Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), who was first elected in 2018. As of August 2020, independent outlets rated the district as Lean Democratic.

Carlos Gimenez was appointed as the City Manager of Miami in 2000, served on the County Board of Commissioners from 2004-2011, and leading up to the election had held the office of Mayor of Miami-Dade County since 2011. Previous to his work in politics, Gimenez had been a firefighter with the Miami Fire-Rescue Department for 25 years. On his campaign website when describing his tenure as mayor, he said he reduced taxes, decreased government spending, and “reduced the wait time on county permit processing by three months.”[1]

Omar Blanco served as a firefighter for 15 years before becoming the president of Miami-Dade Firefighters and Paramedics Local 1403.[2] Leading up to the election, Blanco highlighted his history as a first responder and his experience lobbying the federal government to secure funding for the Miami-Dade fire department.[3] He criticized Gimenez’s response to the Coronavirus, saying in an interview that “My opponent has misled our community by placing the blame on local businesses, closing our restaurants’ ability to survive themselves during this pandemic.”[4]

As of July 29, Gimenez had raised $1,153,399 and spent $270,940, while Blanco had raised $179,091 and spent $133,963.[5] Gimenez won noteworthy primary endorsements from President Donald Trump and Miami’s Community Newspapers.[6][7] Blanco has been endorsed by three county commissioners and the Miami Association of Firefighters.[2][8]

Click on candidate names below to view their key messages:


Blanco
Gimenez


This page focuses on Florida's 26th Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Florida modified its candidate filing procedures as follows:

  • Candidate filing procedures: Candidates allowed to submit qualifying documents, including signed petitions, electronically.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 26

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Carlos-Gimenez.PNG
Carlos Gimenez
 
59.9
 
29,480
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Omar__Blanco.PNG
Omar Blanco
 
40.1
 
19,721

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 49,201
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[9] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.


Omar Blanco

Image of Omar Blanco

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Blanco served as a lieutenant with the Miami-Dade fire department for 15 years before becoming the president of Miami-Dade Firefighters and Paramedics Local 1403. His campaign website says that “Omar is a native of Miami-Dade County and lifelong Republican. He resides in Southwest Dade County with his wife of 18 years, Carolina, and their two children, Kevin, age 16, and Lauren, age 12.”


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

“There has been a groundswell from the community that feels we need to move on. Former Representative Trey Gowdy says it all the time, ‘if you want to change the way Washington is working, you have to change who you send up there.’”

“Throughout his life, Omar has been a proactive, problem-solving leader. He intends to bring his many years of public service and ambition to work hard every day serving the constituents of Florida’s 26th Congressional District.”

“My opponent has misled our community by placing the blame on local businesses, closing our restaurants’ ability to survive themselves during this pandemic, which has put many of our constituents out of work. I believe we’ve got to be able to get in front of these issues and, not necessarily pander, but serve.”

Show sources

Sources: CBS Miami, "Campaign 2020: Two Republicans Square Off To Try And Unseat Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell In November," August 11, 2020. Omar Blanco 2020 campaign website, "Meet Omar," accessed August 14, 2020. Local 10 News, "This Week in South Florida: Omar Blanco," August 9, 2020; Omar Blanco 2020 campaign website, "Meet Omar," accessed August 14, 2020.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 26 in 2020.

Carlos Gimenez

Image of Carlos Gimenez

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

Biography:  Gimenez earned his bachelor's degree in public administration from Barry University. He was a firefighter with the Miami Fire-Rescue Department for 25 years before becoming the city manager for Miami. Gimenez's campaign website says, "Born in Cuba in 1954, Gimenez immigrated to the United States with his family following the Cuban Revolution in 1960. His family settled in Miami’s Little Havana neighborhood and Gimenez has been a Miami-Dade resident ever since."


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

“I believe in America and the free enterprise system that has made this country great and I will stand with President Trump to defend the American Dream for future generations from extremists.” 

“It’s evident #SouthFlorida voters are not impressed with the incumbent Member of Congress’ lack of leadership, partisan politics and catering to the squad,” Gimenez said on Twitter. “They’re looking for a leader who will work for results and provide commonsense leadership for our community. That’s what I’ve done for the last nine years as Mayor, and that’s what I’ll do in Congress. I’ll bring us together instead of being a partisan mouthpiece.”

“I am the only person that can beat Debbie Muscarsel-Powell. The polls show that I can beat her. I don’t think he [Blanco] can. The important thing is to get that seat back and move our country is the right direction.”

Show sources

Sources: Carlos Gimenez 2020 campaign website, "Mayor Carlos Gimenez Announces Campaign for Congress," accessed August 14, 2020. Twitter, "Carlos Gimenez on August 4," accessed August 14, 2020. CBS Miami, "Campaign 2020: Two Republicans Square Off To Try And Unseat Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell In November," August 11, 2020; Carlos Gimenez 2020 campaign website, "Meet Carlos," accessed August 14, 2020.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 26 in 2020.

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[10] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[11] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Omar Blanco Republican Party $186,038 $186,038 $0 As of December 8, 2020
Carlos Gimenez Republican Party $2,245,735 $2,206,564 $39,171 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Primaries in Florida

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Florida utilizes a closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[12][13]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[14]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[15][16][17]

Race ratings: Florida's 26th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean DemocraticLean DemocraticToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean DemocraticToss-upToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+6, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 6 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Florida's 26th Congressional District the 165th most Democratic nationally.[18]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.20. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.20 points toward that party.[19]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[20][21]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District election history

2018

See also: Florida's 26th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 26

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell defeated incumbent Carlos Curbelo in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 26 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DebbieMPowell2024.jpg
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) Candidate Connection
 
50.9
 
119,797
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CarlosCurbelo.jpg
Carlos Curbelo (R)
 
49.1
 
115,678

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 235,475
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 26

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell defeated Demetries Grimes in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 26 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DebbieMPowell2024.jpg
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Candidate Connection
 
63.5
 
21,002
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Demetries_Grimes_2023.jpeg
Demetries Grimes
 
36.5
 
12,098

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 33,100
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 26

Incumbent Carlos Curbelo defeated Souraya Faas in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 26 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CarlosCurbelo.jpg
Carlos Curbelo
 
84.0
 
29,508
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Souraya_Faas.JPG
Souraya Faas
 
16.0
 
5,629

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 35,137
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Florida's 26th Congressional District election, 2016

Florida's 26th Congressional District was a battleground district in 2016. Incumbent Carlos Curbelo (R) won re-election to his second term in 2016. He defeated Joe Garcia (D) and Jose Peixoto (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Garcia defeated Annette Taddeo to win the Democratic primary on August 30, 2016.[22][23][24]

U.S. House, Florida District 26 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngCarlos Curbelo Incumbent 53% 148,547
     Democratic Joe Garcia 41.2% 115,493
     Independent Jose Peixoto 5.9% 16,502
Total Votes 280,542
Source: Florida Division of Elections


U.S. House, Florida District 26 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJoe Garcia 51.3% 14,834
Annette Taddeo 48.7% 14,108
Total Votes 28,942
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2014

See also: Florida's 26th Congressional District elections, 2014

Florida's 26th Congressional District was a battleground district in 2014. Incumbent Joe Garcia faced no challenger in the Democratic primary. In the Republican primary, Carlos Curbelo defeated Ed MacDougall, Joe Martinez, Lorenzo Palomares Starbuck and former U.S. Rep. David Rivera. Curbelo then beat incumbent Garcia in the general election on November 4, 2014.[25][26]

U.S. House, Florida District 26 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngCarlos Curbelo 51.5% 83,031
     Democratic Joe Garcia Incumbent 48.5% 78,306
Total Votes 161,337
Source: Florida Division of Elections

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Carlos Gimenez 2020 campaign website, "Meet Carlos," accessed August 14, 2020
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 Omar Blanco 2020 campaign website, "Meet Omar," accessed August 14, 2020
  3. ↑ Hometown! Key West, "OMAR BLANCO (R)," accessed August 14, 2020
  4. ↑ Local 10 News, "This Week in South Florida: Omar Blanco," August 9, 2020
  5. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Campaign Finance Data," accessed August 14, 2020
  6. ↑ Twitter, "Carlos Gimenez on January 24," accessed August 14, 2020
  7. ↑ Twitter, "Carlos Gimenez on July 16," accessed August 14, 2020
  8. ↑ Twitter, "Omar Blanco on September 13," August 14, 2020
  9. ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  10. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  11. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  12. ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed July 23, 2024
  13. ↑ Florida Division of Elections, "Closed Primary Election," accessed July 23, 2024
  14. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  15. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  16. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  17. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  18. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  19. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  20. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  21. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  22. ↑ Daily KOS, "Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: National Democrats look to retake Florida swing seat," January 15, 2015
  23. ↑ Florida Department of State, "Candidate Listing for 2016 General Election," accessed June 25, 2016
  24. ↑ Politico, " Florida House Races Results," August 30, 2016
  25. ↑ Associated Press, "Primary Results 2014," accessed August 26, 2014
  26. ↑ The Huffington Post, "Election 2014," November 4, 2014


Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Marco Rubio (R)
Rick Scott (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Neal Dunn (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Anna Luna (R)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
Republican Party (22)
Democratic Party (8)


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