Idaho's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020 (June 2 Democratic primary)

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Idaho's 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 13, 2020
Primary: June 2, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Michael Simpson (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Idaho
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Idaho's 2nd Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd
Idaho elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

A Democratic Party primary took place on June 2, 2020, in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District to determine which Democratic candidate would run in the district's general election on November 3, 2020.

Aaron Swisher advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Idaho District 2.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
March 13, 2020
June 2, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election, the incumbent was Michael Simpson (Republican), who was first elected in 1998.

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. In Idaho, parties decide who may vote in their primaries. As of July 2024, the Democratic Party allows unaffiliated voters to vote in its primary, while the Republican Party only allows voters registered with its party to vote in its primary. Unaffiliated voters can choose to affiliate with a party on Election Day.[1][2][3]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

This page focuses on Idaho's 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Republican primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Idaho modified its primary election process as follows:

  • Voting procedures: The May 19, 2020, primary election was conducted by mail. The receipt deadline for mail-in ballots was June 2.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Candidates and election results

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Idaho District 2

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/AaronSwisher-11617-4-3-min.jpg
Aaron Swisher
 
100.0
 
37,495

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 37,495
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+17, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 17 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Idaho's 2nd Congressional District the 66th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.11. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.11 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Aaron Swisher Democratic Party $74,674 $74,268 $7,851 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Idaho's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Idaho Secretary of State's Office, "Primary Elections in Idaho," accessed July 30, 2024
  2. ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed July 30, 2024
  3. ↑ ACLUE Idaho, "2024 Your Rights as an Idaho Voter," accessed July 30, 2024
  4. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  7. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  8. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018


Idaho's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Mike Crapo (R)
Jim Risch (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Republican Party (4)


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