Presidential election in Arkansas, 2024
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← 2020
|
2024 presidential election  |
Democratic primary: March 5, 2024 |
Republican primary: March 5, 2024 |
Electoral College: Six votes |
Arkansas will hold an election for president of the United States on November 5, 2024, along with 49 other states and the District of Columbia.
The Democratic and Republican parties held primary elections on March 5, 2024.[1] Joe Biden (D) won the Democratic primary, and Donald Trump (R) won the Republican primary.
The Republican presidential candidate won Arkansas in nine of the 11 elections between 1980 and 2020. The only Democratic candidate to carry the state in those two elections was former Gov. Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996.[2]
This page includes the following sections:
- Candidates and election results
- Details about Arkansas' Democratic primary
- Details about Arkansas' Republican primary
- Information about voting in Arkansas
- Candidate filing requirements in Arkansas
- Presidential election competitiveness
- Effect of the 2020 census on electoral votes
- Previous presidential election results in Arkansas and analysis
- About Arkansas
- Presidential election by state
Candidates and election results
General election
Note: This candidate list is not final and subject to change.
Presidential election in Arkansas, 2024
Candidate/Running mate |
||
 
| Donald Trump/J.D. Vance (R) | |
 
| Chase Oliver/Mike ter Maat (L) | |
 |
Primary election
Arkansas Democratic presidential primary on March 5, 2024
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
Pledged delegates |
|
 | Joe Biden |
88.5
|
71,978 | 31 |
 | Marianne Williamson |
4.8
|
3,883 | 0 |
 | Dean Phillips |
2.9
|
2,346 | 0 |
 | Stephen Lyons Sr. |
1.8
|
1,442 | 0 |
 | Armando Perez-Serrato |
1.1
|
879 | 0 |
|
| Frank J. Lozada |
1.0
|
786 | 0 |
|
Total votes: 81,314 • Total pledged delegates: 31 |
Arkansas Republican presidential primary on March 5, 2024
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
Pledged delegates |
|
|
| Donald Trump |
76.9
|
204,898 | 39 |
 | Nikki Haley |
18.4
|
49,085 | 1 |
 | Asa Hutchinson |
2.8
|
7,377 | 0 |
 | Ron DeSantis |
1.2
|
3,162 | 0 |
 | Vivek Ramaswamy |
0.3
|
860 | 0 |
 | Chris Christie |
0.2
|
600 | 0 |
 | Ryan Binkley |
0.1
|
183 | 0 |
 | Doug Burgum |
0.1
|
157 | 0 |
|
| David James Stuckenberg |
0.1
|
151 | 0 |
|
Total votes: 266,473 • Total pledged delegates: 40 |
Democratic primary
- See also: Democratic presidential nomination, 2024
The Democratic Party selected Vice President Kamala Harris (D) as its nominee during a virtual roll call vote on August 2, 2024, ahead of the in-person 2024 Democratic National Convention, which took place from August 19-22, 2024, in Chicago, Illinois.[3][4][5][6][7]
Joe Biden (D) withdrew from the presidential race on July 21, 2024.[8] Biden crossed the majority delegate threshold necessary to win the Democratic nomination on March 12, 2024, which made him the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Before the national convention, individual state caucuses and primaries were held to allocate convention delegates. To read more about the 2024 primary schedule click here. These delegates, along with superdelegates who come from the party leadership, voted at the virtual roll call to select the nominee.
Republican primary
- See also: Republican presidential nomination, 2024
The Republican Party selected former President Donald Trump (R) as its 2024 presidential nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention, which was held from July 15-18, 2024, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Before the convention, each state, Washington, D.C., and five U.S. territories held a primary, caucus, or convention to decide how to allocate delegates at the national convention. These nominating events began in January and ended in June. Trump crossed the delegate threshold necessary to win the nomination—1,215—on March 12, 2024.
Republican presidential candidates participated in five primary debates, with the first being held held in August 2023 and the last in January 2024.[9] Trump did not participate in any of the debates.
Trump is the sixth U.S. president to run for re-election to non-consecutive terms.[10] Grover Cleveland (D), the 22nd and 24th president of the United States, is the only president who has been elected to non-consecutive terms. Before Trump's 2024 campaign, the most recent former president to run for non-consecutive terms was Theodore Roosevelt (R), who sought re-election in 1912 as a Progressive Party candidate after leaving office in 1909.
Voting information
- See also: Voting in Arkansas
Candidate filing requirements
The tables below detail filing requirements for presidential candidates in Arkansas in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Arkansas, click here.
Presidential primary candidates
| Filing requirements for presidential primary candidates in Arkansas, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Party | Signatures required | Signature formula | Filing fee | Filing fee formula | Filing deadline | Source |
| Arkansas | Democratic | 5,000 | Fixed by party | $2,500.00 | Fixed by party | 11/14/23[11] | Source, Source |
| Arkansas | Republican | K.A. | K.A. | $25,000 | Fixed by party | 11/14/23 | Source, Source |
Independent presidential candidates
| Filing requirements for independent candidates in Arkansas, 2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Signatures required | Signature formula | Filing fee | Filing fee formula | Filing deadline | Source |
| Arkansas | 5,000 | Fixed by statute | K.A. | K.A. | 8/1/2024 | Source |
Presidential election competitiveness
Race ratings
The map below displays presidential race ratings in each state. These ratings are generated by averaging the ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean and Tilt ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[12][13][14]
Polling
The section below displays national polling averages for the 2024 presidential election from RealClearPolitics.
Prediction markets
The section below displays national PredictIt share prices and RealClearPolitics prediction market averages for the 2024 presidential election.
What is a prediction market?
Prediction markets allow users to purchase shares relating to the outcome of events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. For instance, an election contested between four candidates would be represented by eight separate contracts, with each contract correlating to a particular candidate winning or losing the election.
The share price in each individual forecast rises and falls based on market demand. Once the event's outcome is decided, holders of shares that correlate with the correct outcome receive a payout for each share they held.
For example, a user buys 10 shares at 20 cents each in a presidential primary saying Candidate A will win. If Candidate A wins the election, the user earns $10. If the candidate loses, the user earns no money and loses his original $2 investment.
Why do prediction markets matter?
Prediction markets can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild argued that they are better suited to the task than polls: "I can create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market...except markets have a way of incentivizing you to come back at 2 a.m. and update your answer."[15][16][17]
PredictIt
The chart below shows 2024 presidential general election open share prices over time.[18]
RealClearPolitics prediction market averages
Presidential election endorsements in Arkansas
- See also: Presidential election endorsements, 2024
The section below displays current and former party leaders, governors and other state executives, members of Congress, mayors of large cities, and state legislative majority and minority leaders in Arkansas who issued an endorsement in the 2024 presidential election. See something we missed? Email us.
| Presidential endorsements by Arkansas elected officials and party leaders, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | State | Party | Candidate | Date |
| John Boozman | AR | Republican Party | Donald Trump | May 30, 2024 source |
| Tom Cotton | AR | Republican Party | Donald Trump | January 3, 2024 source |
| Rick Crawford | AR | Republican Party | Donald Trump | January 15, 2024 source |
| French Hill | AR | Republican Party | Donald Trump | May 30, 2024 source |
| Bruce Westerman | AR | Republican Party | Donald Trump | February 6, 2024 source |
| Steve Womack | AR | Republican Party | Donald Trump | February 6, 2024 source |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | AR | Republican Party | Donald Trump | November 6, 2023 source |
| Asa Hutchinson | AR | Republican Party | Nikki Haley | January 20, 2024 source |
Effect of the 2020 census on electoral votes
Every ten years, the United States conducts the census, a complete count of the U.S. population. The data gleaned from the census process is used to determine several things, including legislative district lines, a state's number of U.S. House representatives, and the number of votes a state has in the Electoral College.
The 2024 presidential election will be the first presidential election to take place using the electoral vote counts produced by the 2020 census. Six states gained votes in the Electoral College, while seven states lost votes. See the table below for exact figures.
| Electoral votes gained and lost after the 2020 census | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| State | Votes gained (new total) | State | Votes lost (new total) |
| Texas | +2 (40) | California | -1 (54) |
| Colorado | +1 (10) | Illinois | -1 (19) |
| Florida | +1 (30) | Michigan | -1 (15) |
| Montana | +1 (4) | New York | -1 (28) |
| North Carolina | +1 (16) | Ohio | -1 (17) |
| Oregon | +1 (8) | Pennsylvania | -1 (19) |
| West Virginia | -1 (4) | ||
Previous presidential election results and analysis
Arkansas presidential election results (1900-2020)
Scroll to the right in the box below to view more recent presidential election results.
- 20 Democratic wins
- 10 Republican wins
- 1 other win
| Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winning Party | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | AI[19] | R | D | R | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Below is an analysis of Arkansas's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.
Between 1900 and 2020:
- Arkansas participated in 31 presidential elections.
- Arkansas voted for the winning presidential candidate 61.3 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 71.26 percent.[20]
- Arkansas voted Democratic 64.5 percent of the time and Republican 32.3 percent of the time.
Recent statewide results
2020
General election
Presidential election in Arkansas, 2020
Candidate/Running mate |
% |
Popular votes |
Electoral votes |
||
| ✔ |
| Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) |
62.4
|
760,647 | 6 |
| Joe Biden/Kamala D. Harris (D) |
34.8
|
423,932 | 0 | |
 
| Jo Jorgensen/Spike Cohen (L) |
1.1
|
13,133 | 0 | |
 
| Ye/Michelle Tidball (Independent) |
0.3
|
4,099 | 0 | |
 
| Howie Hawkins/Angela Nicole Walker (G) |
0.2
|
2,980 | 0 | |
| Phil Collins/Billy Joe Parker (Independent) |
0.2
|
2,812 | 0 | |
 
| Brock Pierce/Karla Ballard (Independent) |
0.2
|
2,141 | 0 | |
 
| Don Blankenship/William Mohr (Constitution Party) |
0.2
|
2,108 | 0 | |
 
| Brian T. Carroll/Amar Patel (American Solidarity Party) |
0.1
|
1,713 | 0 | |
| Connie Gammon/Phil Collins (Independent) |
0.1
|
1,475 | 0 | |
| J.R. Myers/Tiara Lusk (Life and Liberty) |
0.1
|
1,372 | 0 | |
 
| Gloria La Riva/Sunil Freeman (Party for Socialism and Liberation) |
0.1
|
1,336 | 0 | |
 
| Roque De La Fuente/Darcy Richardson (Independent) |
0.1
|
1,321 | 0 | |
|
Total votes: 1,219,069 |
Primary election
Arkansas Democratic presidential primary on March 3, 2020
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
Pledged delegates |
|
|
| Joe Biden |
40.6
|
93,011 | 19 |
 | Bernie Sanders |
22.4
|
51,413 | 9 |
 | Michael Bloomberg |
16.7
|
38,312 | 3 |
 | Elizabeth Warren |
10.0
|
22,970 | 0 |
 | Pete Buttigieg |
3.3
|
7,649 | 0 |
 | Amy Klobuchar |
3.1
|
7,009 | 0 |
 | Tom Steyer |
0.9
|
2,053 | 0 |
 | Tulsi Gabbard |
0.7
|
1,593 | 0 |
|
| Kamala D. Harris |
0.3
|
715 | 0 |
 | Andrew Yang |
0.3
|
715 | 0 |
 | Michael Bennet |
0.3
|
574 | 0 |
 | Cory Booker |
0.2
|
572 | 0 |
|
| Marianne Williamson |
0.2
|
501 | 0 |
 | Steve Bullock |
0.2
|
485 | 0 |
 | John Delaney |
0.2
|
443 | 0 |
 | Joe Sestak |
0.2
|
408 | 0 |
|
| Mosemarie Boyd |
0.2
|
393 | 0 |
 | Julián Castro |
0.1
|
304 | 0 |
|
Total votes: 229,120 • Total pledged delegates: 31 |
Arkansas Republican presidential primary on March 3, 2020
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
Pledged delegates |
|
|
| Donald Trump |
97.1
|
238,980 | 40 |
 | Bill Weld |
2.1
|
5,216 | 0 |
|
| Roque De La Fuente |
0.8
|
1,848 | 0 |
|
Total votes: 246,044 • Total pledged delegates: 40 |
| Click [show] to view more election results. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Recent county-level results
How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:
| County-level voting pattern categories | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | |||||||
| Status | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | ||||
| Solid Democratic | D | D | D | ||||
| Trending Democratic | R | D | D | ||||
| Battleground Democratic | D | R | D | ||||
| New Democratic | R | R | D | ||||
| Republican | |||||||
| Status | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | ||||
| Solid Republican | R | R | R | ||||
| Trending Republican | D | R | R | ||||
| Battleground Republican | R | D | R | ||||
| New Republican | D | D | R | ||||
Following the 2020 presidential election, 80.4% of Arkansans lived in one of the state's 66 Solid Republican counties, which voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election from 2012 to 2020, and 19.4% lived in one of eight Solid Democratic counties. Overall, Arkansas was Solid Republican, having voted for Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Donald Trump (R) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Arkansas following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.
| Arkansas county-level statistics, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solid Republican | 66 | 80.4% | |||||
| Solid Democratic | 8 | 19.4% | |||||
| Trending Republican | 1 | 0.2% | |||||
| Total voted Democratic | 8 | 19.4% | |||||
| Total voted Republican | 67 | 80.6% | |||||
Presidential elections by state decided by 5 percentage points or less
The following map shows the number of times, in presidential elections held between 1948 and 2020, that the margin of victory was 5 percentage points or fewer in each state.
- Wisconsin was the state with the most frequently narrow margins during this time period, appearing on the list in 11 presidential elections.
- Three states appeared nine times: Florida, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
- The state with the narrowest margin of victory was Florida in 2000 at 537 votes or one-hundredth of a percentage point.
About the state
Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.
- Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
- State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
- Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.
This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.
U.S. Senate elections
The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Arkansas.
| U.S. Senate election results in Arkansas | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Winner | Runner up |
| 2022 | 65.7% |
31.1%
|
| 2020 | 66.5% |
33.5%
|
| 2016 | 59.7% |
36.3%
|
| 2014 | 56.5% |
39.4%
|
| 2010 | 58.0% |
36.9%
|
| Average | 64.0 | 33.3 |
Gubernatorial elections
- See also: Governor of Arkansas
The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Arkansas.
| Gubernatorial election results in Arkansas | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Winner | Runner up |
| 2022 | 63.0% |
35.2%
|
| 2018 | 65.3% |
31.8%
|
| 2014 | 55.4% |
41.5%
|
| 2010 | 64.4% |
33.6%
|
| 2006 | 55.6% |
40.7%
|
| Average | 58.5 | 38.9 |
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Arkansas' congressional delegation as of May 2024.
| Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Arkansas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
| Democratic | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2 | 4 | 6 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Arkansas' top four state executive offices as of May 2024.
| State executive officials in Arkansas, May 2024 | |
|---|---|
| Office | Officeholder |
| Governor | Sarah Huckabee Sanders
|
| Lieutenant Governor | Leslie Rutledge
|
| Secretary of State | John Thurston
|
| Attorney General | Tim Griffin
|
State legislature
Arkansas State Senate
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 6 | |
| Republican Party | 29 | |
| Independent | 0 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 35 | |
Arkansas House of Representatives
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 18 | |
| Republican Party | 82 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 100 | |
Trifecta control
The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until 2024.
Arkansas Party Control: 1992-2024
Eleven years of Democratic trifectas • Ten years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
The table below details demographic data in Arkansas and compares it to the broader United States as of 2022.
| Demographic Data for Arkansas | ||
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | Vereinigte Staaten | |
| Population | 3,011,524 | 331,449,281 |
| Land area (sq mi) | 51,991 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White | 72.7% | 65.9% |
| Black/African American | 15.1% | 12.5% |
| Asian | 1.6% | 5.8% |
| Native American | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Two or more | 6.7% | 8.8% |
| Hispanic/Latino | 8.1% | 18.7% |
| Bildung | ||
| High school graduation rate | 88.2% | 89.1% |
| College graduation rate | 24.7% | 34.3% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income | $56,335 | $75,149 |
| Persons below poverty level | 11.6% | 8.8% |
| Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2020). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2017-2022). | ||
| **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
Presidential election by state
- See also: Presidential election by state, 2024
Click on a state below to navigate to information about the presidential election in that jurisdiction.
See also
Use the dropdown menu below to navigate Ballotpedia's historical coverage of the presidential election in each state.
Footnotes
- ↑ Arkansas Secretary of State, "2024 Election Dates," accessed July 31, 2023
- ↑ 270 to Win, "Arkansas," accessed February 14, 2023
- ↑ USA Today, "Harris makes history as first Black woman, Asian American presidential nominee," August 2, 2024
- ↑ ABC News, "DNC to nominate Biden and Harris to bypass Ohio ballot issues," May 28, 2024
- ↑ The New York Times, "Democrats Set Aug. 1 for Harris Nomination Vote," July 24, 2024
- ↑ CBS News, "Kamala Harris closer to being nominee as DNC approves early virtual roll call vote," July 24, 2024
- ↑ DNC, "DNC and DNCC Chairs Announce Results of Presidential Nominating Petition Process and Opening of Virtual Roll Call on August 1," July 30, 2024
- ↑ X, "Biden on July 21, 2024," accessed July 21, 2024
- ↑ The Hill, "RNC votes to hold first presidential debate in Milwaukee," February 23, 2023
- ↑ Pew Research Center, "Few former presidents have run for their old jobs – or anything else – after leaving office,' November 16, 2022
- ↑ A candidate can qualify for ballot placement either by filing a petition or by paying the filing fee. A candidate does not need to do both.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Nature, "The power of prediction markets," October 18, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Meet the 'stock market' for politics," October 31, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Presidential General Election Results, "2008 Electoral Map Based on the Intrade Prediction Market," accessed January 25, 2018
- ↑ PredictIt, "Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?" accessed December 16, 2022
- ↑ American Independent Party
- ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2020. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
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