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What's happening to house prices?
Prices are now rising slightly after a slow start to 2024
House prices have risen slightly so far this year, but hopes of a significant market uplift have been delayed by stubbornly high mortgage rates.
The latest data from the Land Registry shows an annual rise of 1.1%, with the average UK house price standing at £281,000 in March. While this isn't far off the all-time high of £292,000 recorded in September 2022, prices have largely been trending downwards rather than upwards.
Here, Which? analyses what's happening to house prices according to other indices including Nationwide, Halifax, Rightmove and Zoopla, and explains what might come next.
How have house prices changed?
The Land Registry's UK House Price Index is the most reliable barometer of what's happening to house prices, as it's based on actual property sales rather than asking prices. It works on a two-month lag, so the most recent figures are for April.
The Land Registry says the average price of a property in the UK increased by 1.1% between April 2023 and 2024.
In the 12 months prior, house price growth increased by 1.6%.
There is a gap of £90,000 between the average price paid by first-time buyers and those who are already on the housing ladder in Great Britain (data is not available for Northern Ireland):
- First-time buyer: £236,000
- Home mover: £326,000
Average house prices over time
- Find out more: best mortgage rates - check how rates compare for first-time buyers, home movers, and those looking to remortgage
How do other house price indices compare?
As well as Land Registry data, there are a handful of other property price indices that indicate what's going on with house prices.
The portal Rightmove provides the most up-to-date figures, but they're based on asking prices set by sellers rather than confirmed sales. Zoopla's figures are based on sold prices, mortgage valuations and recently-agreed sales.
Nationwide and Halifax also publish their own monthly data, based on mortgage lending.
Currently, Rightmove, Nationwide and Halifax are all recording a small year-on-year rise in prices.
| House price index | Month-on-month change | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Rightmove (June 2024) | 0.0% | +0.6% |
| Zoopla (June 2024) | +0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nationwide (June 2024) | +0.2% | +1.5% |
| Halifax (May 2024) | -0.1% | +1.5% |
- Find out more: best mortgage lenders
House price changes by region in April 2024
Price changes vary from region-to-region and country-to-country.
Land Registry data shows the majority of areas recorded slight price increases in April.
London (3.9%) experienced the biggest falls in the year to April 2024.
| Country/region | Property price | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | £298,000 | +0.3% | +0.6% |
| Scotland | £190,000 | +1.3% | +4.5% |
| Wales | £208,000 | -2.1% | +0.4% |
| Northern Ireland (Jan-Mar 2024) | £178,000 | +0.4% | +4% |
| East Midlands | £242,000 | +0.7% | +1.1% |
| East of England | £335,000 | -0.7% | +0.4% |
| London | £502,000 | -0.2% | -3.9% |
Source: UK House Price Index, 19 June 2024. Monthly data is not available for N. Ireland, figures are released each quarter. Average prices are rounded to the nearest thousand.
How many homes are being sold?
There was a marked drop-off in housing transactions last year, but there are now signs the market is picking up.
The most recent data from HMRC shows that an estimated 91,290 transactions went through in May, up 17% on 2023's figure.
The graph below shows how numbers have fluctuated over the past three years.
- Find out more: the cost of selling a house
How long does it take to sell a property?
Demand from buyers fell in 2023, with high mortgage rates resulting in the market cooling off.
The estate agent trade body Propertymark says that the number of buyers registering with estate agents increased in April, with around nine new applicants registering for each new available property.
Rightmove says sellers are taking an average of 60 days to secure a buyer, compared to the 55 days recorded in May last year.
What will happen to house prices?
At the start of 2024, lenders and estate agents expected a fairly bleak year for house prices.
HSBC and Nationwide predicted prices would remain flat, while Halifax, Rightmove and Zoopla projected drops of between 1% and 3%.
However, recent forecasts have been more optimistic.
The estate agency Savills predicted a 3% drop in 2024 last November, but has upgraded its forecast to a 2.5% rise.
It says this is underpinned by an easing of mortgage rates and slightly improved outlook for economic growth.
Knight Frank's updated forecast is similar, predicting a 3% rise in the UK as a whole, and a 2% rise in Greater London.
Is it possible to get a good mortgage deal?
Mortgage rates dipped in the first few months of 2024, but the Bank of England's decision to freeze the base rate in June has resulted in rates stagnating.
For the latest information, check out our guide on the best mortgage rates.
If you're coming up to the end of your fixed term, our story on what to do if you need to remortgage offers advice on your options.
Finally, if you're struggling to make your current repayments, see our guide on what to do if you can't pay your mortgage.
Which? Money Podcast: what a fall in the base rate could mean for mortgages
This story is regularly updated with the latest house price index figures and expert views. The last update was on 1 July 2024.
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