BJP has odds stacked against it in Punjab. What gives it hope?

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been a bit player in Punjab politics, playing a second fiddle to its senior alliance partner the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) since 1996. But this time, it decided to come out of SAD's shadow and fight the Lok Sabha elections on its own. The SAD had walked out of the alliance over the farm bills but both were considering coming together again which did not happen.

While testing the waters in Punjab on its own, where it ranks fourth after the AAP, the Congress and the SAD, the BJP finds odds are stacked against it. It faces backlash from protesting farmers in a state where traditionally the BJP has not had any core voters of its own. In the absence of its alliance partner, the SAD, it might not have much traction in rural areas. Yet, the state BJP leaders are quite upbeat. They are hopeful of winning at least four seats of the total 13, double the number they have been winning in the state in the past few Lok Sabha elections.

What explains their optimism when the party doesn't have any voter base of its own and the dominant farmer community has turned against it?

The break with the Akalis
The biggest challenge for the BJP this time is the break with the SAD. The BJP's ambitious aim for its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to cross the 400-seat mark had forced it to talk to its separated ally. The SAD too saw benefit in allying with the BJP since its own voter base, largely in the rural Sikh population, has been eroded by the AAP.

The main irritant in the negotiations was the seat sharing. The BJP wanted to contest from five out of 13 seats, a prospect the Akali Dal was not enthused about, TOI has reported. Citing no significant increase in the vote share of the saffron party in the 2022 assembly elections when it contested on its own from 73 seats against the 24 it used to in alliance with the SAD, the party was not keen on handing out more than four seats to the BJP.

Another reason was the SAD hardening its stand over its demand for the release of "Bandi Singhs", the convicted terrorists from the period of Khalistan movement who are in various jails despite completing their punishment. The BJP was not willing to consider this demand. SAD chief Sukhbir Singh Badal said that for his party, principles are more important "than the number game" as he slammed the national parties for "playing politics" over votes.

Yet another reason was the farmer protest 2.0 which the BJP government in Haryana had quelled by preventing the protesters from entering into Haryana to go to Delhi on tractors. This has sharpened the anti-BJP sentiment among the rural SIkh population, the main voter base of the SAD.

Many think that without SAD's support, the BJP might not be able to even retain its two Lok Sabha seats of Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur. The SAD will benefit from severing ties with the BJP as it will not face the ire of the farmers, who comprise the SAD's voter base.

The farmer trouble
Nearly all of the BJP candidates are facing protests by farmers. Often they are not even allowed to enter villages. A Punjab BJP delegation led by state president Sunil Jakhar had approached the state’s chief electoral officer on May 6 to raise concerns about the safety of party candidates during campaigning and elections. The BJP brass had also expressed its apprehension about what it termed as a possible collusion between the governing AAP and other non-BJP parties in organising protests that could potentially vitiate the political process.

Farmers are angry over the BJP government in Haryana stopping them at the border when they were headed to Delhi a few months ago to press for their demand for a legal guarantee for the minimum support price for all crops.

BJP's hope
The BJP still hopes to win at least four seats in Punjab: Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur, where it's the incumbent, and Ludhiana and Jalandhar. It has another strong candidate in Preneet Kaur at Patiala. She is the wife of former chief minister Capt. Amarinder SIngh who had joined the BJP last year.

While Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur constituencies already have a large number of BJP voters, it hopes to win in Ludhiana and Jalandhar too, which are largely urban and where it has fielded strong local leaders and sitting MPs from other parties. Former CM Beant Singh's grandson Ravneet Singh Bittu, who had won from Ludhiana in 2014 and 2019, hopped over from the Congress to the BJP in March and got the party ticket. Another strong candidate the BJP bagged is Sushil Kumar Rinku at Jalandhar, who too is a sitting MP from the AAP.

The BJP hopes the urban Hindu votes will consolidate for it due to the Ram Mandir and protesting farmers. Businesses have suffered due to long and frequent blockades by farmers. Recently, traders in Barnala town clashed with protesting farmers and also called for a bandh against their blockade. The party also thinks the protesting farmers could actually be political proxies.

Another factor that the BJP hopes will favour it is the four- and five-cornered contests in the state which will fragment the votes in the absence of any wave for one single party. While the AAP, the Congress, the SAD and the BJP are main parties, radical Sikh candidates such as the jailed separatist Amritpal Singh are also contesting on several seats. They have significant support in certain pockets. Khalistan supporter Simranjit Singh Maan of SAD(A) had won from Sangrur constituency in 2019. The vote will be divided four or five ways in all constituencies which can throw up surprise winners.

The vote share of the BJP was 5.4% from the 24 seats it contested in the 2017 assembly elections in alliance with the SAD. It rose to 6.6% when it fought from 73 seats in the 2022 assembly elections alone. However, in the 2019 parliamentary elections, the party had secured a 9.63% vote share. While the BJP victory is not certain from any seat, the party is expected to significantly add to its vote share which will help it strike roots in the state.