Phalodi satta market: How it works and how it became a barometer for election results

A small, sleepy town near Jodhpur in Rajasthan has gathered national attention for its betting, called satta, on election results. In the absence of opinion polls, numbers from Phalodi are being bandied about all over India. Phalodi has gained a huge reputation for predicting election results though its record is not impeccable.

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Satta in Phalodi runs as an underground market because betting as an organised crime is banned, but it's an open secret that has made this small town famous. A few dozens of small tin kiosks is all there is in the name of satta market in Phalodi yet it commands respect far and wide for its supposed accuracy of electoral and other trends.

The history of Phalodi satta market

Satta in Phalodi is a centuries-old practice which has seeped into daily life so much that people will throw a shoe up and bet on which way it falls. If two stray bulls are fighting in a street, people may bet on which bull would win.

Though the satta business is said to have started in Phalodi several centuries ago, it took an organised shape by the end of the 19th century. These days Phalodi is known mainly for betting on election results but it all started with rains. Located in the arid Thar region with scanty and unpredictable rainfall, Phalodi's betting business began with rains which still remain a hot favourite of punters.

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Phalodians would bet on rain in several ways. The most popular one has been betting on the flowing of a rain spout. People would bet on whether a particular rain spout, the drain that discharges rainwater from a roof, would flow on a particular day, week or month. Other ways of betting on rains were whether a particular pond would overflow or whether rain would be heard falling on a tin roof.

When radio broadcasts of cricket commentary began, the sport became a new subject for betting in Phalodi and now attracts a large number of bettors as IPL expanded it. As popular interest in elections grew after the seventies, Phalodians started betting on election results. When the media started reporting about the Phalodi satta market nearly a decade ago, it gained national prominence. A ban on opinion polls before elections has turned the Phalodi satta market into a barometer for poll results.

The Mumbai stock market is full of people from Phalodi. And it is this network that constantly provides information and forms the basis of the satta business

How Phalodi satta market works

How does the satta on election results work? Election betting can be done in several ways: whether a party will give a ticket to a particular candidate; how many seats a party will win, which party or candidate will win, and who will become the chief minister or the prime minister.

The rates may fluctuate hourly depending on the conditions. The two terms that dominate the satta bazaar are ‘khana’ and ‘lagana’. While ‘khana’ is bets on which one has a slim chance of winning, ‘lagana’ has a good chance. Locals are not required to deposit money since bookies know them personally, but outsiders need to deposit cash. These days transactions are said to be done mostly digitally, especially with the outsiders.

High odds have high rates while low odds have low rates. If the bet is for more seats for a party than it is generally expected to win, the rate will be high. If the bet is on the number of seats a party is seen to be comfortably winning, the rate will be low.

How do bookies analyse voter mood and election trends? “We have people from Bihar, UP, Kolkata and almost everywhere," a bookie had told TOI. "They provide us information on how various caste equations work. We open the market with rates decided by us at 10 am daily. The market is open till 5 pm but by then we would have done business worth crores. People phone in and bet. If they win, money is deposited in their accounts through some mobile wallets. We get calls from all kinds of people. They may be MLAs, MPs or chief ministers. The Phalodi market is known for its accuracy, and therefore, we are in demand."

The fabled accuracy of Phalodi satta market has no definite basis other than hunches backed with analysis gathered from media and local people in different regions across the country.

(With inputs from TOI)