Rahul Gandhi 3.0 if exit polls come true: Three possible scenarios

Most of the exit polls have predicted that the Narendra Modi government is coming to power for the third time, a number of them even predicting the BJP-led NDA reaching the 400-seat mark. The victory of the NDA will be devastating for the INDIA bloc as the opposition parties had come together despite their differences and rivalries for the sole aim of defeating Modi.

While the INDIA bloc did not declare any leader, Rahul Gandhi is seen as the most prominent politician in the bloc and has played a decisive role in bringing together different parties and reaching seat-sharing arrangements. If the exit polls come true, it will be a big setback for Rahul who has been the chief opponent of Modi for more than a decade. Below are the three scenarios he can find himself in:

Rahul recalibrates his agenda

Rahul has made every effort to place his agenda before the people with his yatras, speeches, informal interactions and media interviews. He has been a vociferous speaker, eloquently telling people what he stands for.

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At the centre of his agenda has been three issues of wealth redistribution; caste survey and removing the cap on job quotas; and the cash transfer scheme that promises Rs 1 lakh annually to every poor woman. The Congress manifesto has a range of promises but these three issues have been underlined by Rahul during his poll campaign.

All three appear to be big vote-catching ideas. But if exit polls come true and Modi returns to power, it would mean people refused to be tempted by what Rahul promised or did not believe him. In either case, this might cause Rahul to rethink his agenda. He might find some other issues that he thinks would connect more with voters. He might also reconsider his aggressive style of challenging his opponents and adopt a milder approach.

Rahul soldiers on

Despite his failure to sway the voters with his agenda, Rahul might as well continue just like before. He might think he needs better transmission and elaboration of his ideas. He might also continue with his aggressive style, hoping to mobilise voters against Modi, sooner or later. His aggression, after all, helps him project himself as the biggest opponent of Modi.

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In this scenario, Rahul will keep looking for more radical ideas and also try to get them endorsed from Western experts as he is likely to connect even more with people in Western universities.

Rahul's carefully cultivated image of a rebel out to change the system will only get emphasised more. Instead of yatras, he might choose to take part in major agitations on the ground frequently, leading people against the government on key issue. He might also draft into Congress more people with background in activism like Kanhaiya Kumar or academia like Raghuram Rajan.

Rahul withdraws

If Modi returns, it is also possible that Rahul withdraws from active leadership of his party. Though he is not the party president at present but he is the de facto leader all the other party leaders and the cadre look up to. This can only happen if Priyanka Gandhi gets the leadership role and Rahul works on the ground among the party cadre and common people to forge a wider connect instead of getting bogged down in party affairs.

More like an evangelist than a leader, Rahul can work on spreading his message and ideology on the ground among the masses while his sister becomes the de facto party leader even though the party will continue to have formal presidents.

In this role, Rahul can have the opportunity to raise his profile among the common people by spending more time among them. He can also find more time to interact with Indian and international experts to sharpen his ideas and agenda.