No clean sweep for either front, but TN voters to give clear verdict

CHENNAI: As the lacklustre campaigning by the parties in Tamil Nadu for the Lok Sabha elections on May 13 came to an end on Monday, it is keenly watched if the state will retain its record of giving a clear mandate for maintaining political stability at the centre.

The general feeling among the voters belonging to different sections of society is that unlike in the last 2004 it will not be a clean sweep ( winning all the 40 seats) for either of the fronts. However, from the start, by virtue of its strong alliance ( PMK, MDMK and the two left parties), AIADMK front led by J Jayalalithaa seems to be having an edge over DMK.

Poll observers feel the AIADMK front is expected to win 25 to 30 seats and play a decisive role in the formation of a new Government at the Centre. They say in the event of the front scoring such a victory, Jayalalithaa will be in an enviable position of having the option of supporting either of the three fronts- UPA, NDA and the left led Third front.

Her rival , DMK���s option will be limited to supporting Congress led UPA front. As it is mainly banking on the strength of Congress it will be a miracle performance for the DMK if it is able to match the tally of the rival front, say poll observers. This will be largely due to its performance record and the key role played by the Party supremo and Chief Minister, M Karunanidhi in ensuring political stability at the centre in the last five years.

Among the 39 seats in TN and the lone seat in Puducherry, atleast there are 15 seats which appear sure bet for winning by either of the parties in the front. That way, former IT Minister, Dayananidhi Maran leads the pack with bright prospects for retaining North Chennai constituency against his Muslim rivals from AIADMK and MMK.

The other sure bets for DMK are Thiruvannamalai (Where Venugopal is contesting against PMK���s controversial speaker, Kaduvetti Guru) and Madurai ( where CM���s son, M K Azhagiri is pitted against CPM���s Mohan). For AIADMK, Theni, its southern bastion, tops the winnable seats where it is fighting against Congress. Its other winnable seats are Tirupur, Cuddalore and Krishnagiri.

For PMK, Dharmapuri and Arkonam ( Railway Minister R Velu) are considered sure bets. While MDMK���s Vaiko is set to win his Virudhunagar seat, CPI is likely to bag North Chennai ( D Pandian) and Nagapattinam, a traditional stronghold. Kanyakumari seat is likely to go in favour of BJP���s Pon Radhakrshnan in the three cornered contest involving DMK and CPM.

For Congress, Puducherry has emerged a sure bet. Some of the constituencies witnessing tough battle are Sivaganga ( Finance Minister P Chidambaram vs Rajakannappan of AIADMK), Chennai South ( DMK vs AIADMK), Sriperambadur ( DMK Minister T R Baalu vs PMK���s A K Moorthy), Salem ( TNCC chief K V Thangabalu Vs AIADMK���s S Semmalai), Erode ( Union Minister E V K S Elangovan vs MDMK���s Ganesamurthy, Coimbatore (former Congress Minister, R Prabhu VS P R Natarajan of CPM and Mayiladuthurai ( Union Minister Mani Shankar Aiyer VS O S Manian of AIADMK.


This time, AIADMK is fighting 23 seats ( against 33 in 2004 when it had only BJP as its partner) leaving seven seats for PMK, four for MDMK and three each for CPI and CPM. On the other, DMK is contesting 21 seats against 16 in the last poll leaving 16 for Congress including the lone Puducherry seat, two for VCK and one for IUML.

BJP is contesting 11 seats including South Chennai ( State President, L Ganesan), Kanyakumari ( Pon Radhakrishnan) and Ramanathapuram ( former Minister, S Thirunavukkarasar). Its ally, Aismk led by actor, R Sarath Kumar is fighting four seats.

The other major contender in the poll is actor, Vijayakanth���s DMDK, which is contesting in all the 40 seats. In the 2006 assembly election, he secured 8.3% votes raising the eyebrow in political circles. This time, attempts by the Congress and AIADMK to lure him to their front did not succeed.

He is expected to cut into the vote bank of some parties,mainly the Congress and AIADMK and also affect the victory chances of PMK in north eastern belt. As in the past, caste politics is evident in the current poll and the community of a candidate has come to influence his poll prospects. The creation of new constituencies due to the de-limition process will also have a bearing on the poll outcome.