By Kumar Ketkar
There is little consensus among those debating different postelections scenarios for Maharashtra in drawing rooms, local trains, lunch rooms and canteens. But the crux of all discussions hovers around the persona and politics of PM Narendra Modi, who continues to polarise every debate.
The opinion polls too seem to be quite confusing as multiple identities have entered the electoral fray. The Hindutva identity is overshadowed by the Marathi pride, at least in Mumbai-Konkan belt; the Maratha caste identity has overtaken the Hindu card in western and south Maharashtra; the Vidarbha identity has become an issue in Nagpur-Amravati; Gopinath Munde's legacy represented by his daughter Pankaja has brought the OBC issue to the surface. Even ‘development angst’ has taken a backseat. This is why, though Modi's rallies have been aggressive, his campaign has been defensive. That he had to undertake two dozen rallies is seen as an act of desperation, since no single issue is dominant.
Given the political flux, here are some different permutations and combinations:
Scenario 1: A majority for BJP along with its four allies. This would lead to election of a BJP CM. BJP (or its Mahayuti) will have to win at least 145 assembly seats for this to materalise.
Scenario 2: BJP and allies get 110-130 seats and forms the government with the help of independents. This will mean a BJP-led government, but not a coalition, in the classical sense. If opinion polls are to be believed, one of these options are most likely.
Scenario 3: BJP with allies secure 90-100 seats. Needing 45-55 MLAs more, the party offers the hand of friendship to the Sena, forgetting and forgiving the recent fracas. Congress and NCP had similarly come together in 1999, just months after NCP was created because some Congressmen could not acc ept Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin.
Scenario 4: The Shiv Sena wins 80-100 seats against BJP's tally of 70-80. With Sena falling short, Uddhav Thackeray makes BJP an offer it cannot refuse. He then becomes the chief minister of the Sena-BJP alliance, both bury the acrimony and remember their 25-year old marriage and Hindutva family values.
Scenario 5: BJP and Sena refuse to join hands despite failing to secure a majority on their own. With either party needing around 70-odd legislators, NCP and Shiv Sena could come together, get MNS to join them and manage to reach the magic figure of 145. For this to happen, NCP will have to win about 50-60 seats, Shiv Sena 80-90 seats and MNS 10-15 seats. This is unlikely, but not improbable.
Scenario 6: NCP and Congress manage 60-70 seats each and decide to repeat the 1999 coalition experiment. They too could manage enough rebel winners ready to come back. Prithviraj Chavan or Ajit Pawar are then likely to become CM. No one may be ready to bet on this but one cannot rule out this.
Scenario 7: None of the major political parties are willing to cooperate with each other, something similar to the scene in the Delhi assembly but with much more at stake. In that situation, there will be President's rule. During the President's rule period, some parties may reconcile with others to manage the numbers and form a government. If the deadlock is not broken even then, there would be another election in a year. Modi may perhaps prefer it because president rule in effect means rule by the PMO.
Readers could work out even more interesting scenarios, logical or outlandish!
There is little consensus among those debating different postelections scenarios for Maharashtra in drawing rooms, local trains, lunch rooms and canteens. But the crux of all discussions hovers around the persona and politics of PM Narendra Modi, who continues to polarise every debate.
The opinion polls too seem to be quite confusing as multiple identities have entered the electoral fray. The Hindutva identity is overshadowed by the Marathi pride, at least in Mumbai-Konkan belt; the Maratha caste identity has overtaken the Hindu card in western and south Maharashtra; the Vidarbha identity has become an issue in Nagpur-Amravati; Gopinath Munde's legacy represented by his daughter Pankaja has brought the OBC issue to the surface. Even ‘development angst’ has taken a backseat. This is why, though Modi's rallies have been aggressive, his campaign has been defensive. That he had to undertake two dozen rallies is seen as an act of desperation, since no single issue is dominant.
Given the political flux, here are some different permutations and combinations:
Scenario 1: A majority for BJP along with its four allies. This would lead to election of a BJP CM. BJP (or its Mahayuti) will have to win at least 145 assembly seats for this to materalise.
Scenario 2: BJP and allies get 110-130 seats and forms the government with the help of independents. This will mean a BJP-led government, but not a coalition, in the classical sense. If opinion polls are to be believed, one of these options are most likely.
Scenario 3: BJP with allies secure 90-100 seats. Needing 45-55 MLAs more, the party offers the hand of friendship to the Sena, forgetting and forgiving the recent fracas. Congress and NCP had similarly come together in 1999, just months after NCP was created because some Congressmen could not acc ept Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin.
Scenario 4: The Shiv Sena wins 80-100 seats against BJP's tally of 70-80. With Sena falling short, Uddhav Thackeray makes BJP an offer it cannot refuse. He then becomes the chief minister of the Sena-BJP alliance, both bury the acrimony and remember their 25-year old marriage and Hindutva family values.
Scenario 5: BJP and Sena refuse to join hands despite failing to secure a majority on their own. With either party needing around 70-odd legislators, NCP and Shiv Sena could come together, get MNS to join them and manage to reach the magic figure of 145. For this to happen, NCP will have to win about 50-60 seats, Shiv Sena 80-90 seats and MNS 10-15 seats. This is unlikely, but not improbable.
Scenario 6: NCP and Congress manage 60-70 seats each and decide to repeat the 1999 coalition experiment. They too could manage enough rebel winners ready to come back. Prithviraj Chavan or Ajit Pawar are then likely to become CM. No one may be ready to bet on this but one cannot rule out this.
Scenario 7: None of the major political parties are willing to cooperate with each other, something similar to the scene in the Delhi assembly but with much more at stake. In that situation, there will be President's rule. During the President's rule period, some parties may reconcile with others to manage the numbers and form a government. If the deadlock is not broken even then, there would be another election in a year. Modi may perhaps prefer it because president rule in effect means rule by the PMO.
Readers could work out even more interesting scenarios, logical or outlandish!
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(Catch all the Business News, Breaking News, Budget 2024 Events and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.)
Subscribe to The Economic Times Prime and read the ET ePaper online.
