ARNAB DAS
What impact will Trump's return to power have on market? Arnab Das answers
It seems like the US economy is cooling down now and inflation is cooling down, the jobs market is cooling down, so we are headed towards the first of possibly a few or more Fed rate cuts.
What Labour victory means for India-UK ties & markets? Arnab Das explains
There is a disconnect where the geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions are high. Still, the reality of the macro on the ground is that the integration continues. So, there is not going to be any big rupture in Asia, but there is going to be a continuing integration or continuing alignment of India and other countries in Asia with the West including the UK, Invesco’s Arnab Das.
Passengers face inconvenience as Kolkata Airport suspends flight operations amid cyclone 'Remal' scare
Passengers complained that the airlines did not inform them about the cancellation of their flights through email or registered phone number. Some of them demanded hotel costs and food allowance from the airline. Flight operations at Kolkata airport were suspended for 21 hours due to cyclone 'Remal'.
What should we expect from the FOMC outcome? Arnab Das answers
People do not expect higher inflation, keep demanding higher wages, that is more of a problem, perhaps, in the United Kingdom than in the United States, where there is really no evidence of a price-wage spiral, let alone a wage-price spiral.
What stimulus measures can we expect from China to boost economy? Arnab Das answers
I think it is important to say that the recovery in China is very different than the recovery in many other countries that have come out of COVID with a much more intense rebound than has been the case in China.
What will it take to bring down inflation within comfort zone? Arnab Das explains
So, we have not had a credit-fuelled growth process as is usually the case, which is why the Fed tightening and the ECB tightening, the Bank of England tightening, even though it has been quite aggressive, has not really slowed the economy very drastically into a recession.
What will be the ratings cut impact on US markets? Arnab Das explains
It is really countries that are facing a refinancing problem or a default problem where there really is a sovereign creditworthiness issue at stake. When they get downgraded, and particularly when they go from investment grade to high yield or junk bond status, that is when it becomes a very serious problem. So I think this will pass.
Can China achieve its growth target of 5% for 2023? Arnab Das explains
I think they are headed in the right direction and I guess it is clear that the rebound on reopening has been much less than expected and much less than in many other countries, especially in the west and so I do think that will put some pressure on the 5% growth target and the Chinese authorities and indeed the market is sort of well aware of it.
What would make global investors put more money in Indian market? Arnab Das explains
India's equity market is structurally expensive due to high growth and an aggressive capitalist corporate culture. The bond market is restricted but the country is viewed as a high growth economy, however, valuations are expensive. As for the US, a harder landing and a more meaningful recession have become more likely due to tightened financial conditions, but it remains to be seen whether looser financial conditions can be secured, possibly through the treasury offering a blanket guarantee..
Easing inflation and central banks being less aggressive can allow more lending: Arnab Das
When you are in an environment in which rates are going up, the dollar is going up, instruments with cash flows, particularly not so risky cash flows are becoming more attractive that is an environment in which assets with no cash flows, zero cash flows or long dated cash flows are going to become less attractive.
We will witness continued volatility in the coming months: Arnab Das
As to the synchronised recession look I think that the big picture here is that the US has been tightening and is slowing down but has a very tight labour market. China is reopening albeit it is a complicated reopening process because of its own success if you want to put that way in containing exposure to COVID through the zero COVID policy in the past.
Time to be somewhat defensive but cash is not king yet: Arnab Das
“It is a tight rope walk for central banks. A very fine balance has to be struck here and that is the reason why governments have to be very cautious in dealing with the energy shock in Western Europe. They will need to be more careful about how they communicate their plans and more careful about those plans themselves.”
We are in volatile times, there is real value in being diversified: Arnab Das
In the next few quarters, we still have to deal with the aftermath of the pandemic, the ongoing war and sanctions and the challenges there and if anything, we are in a slowing growth path in the case of Europe, a threat of recession kind of environment with still very high inflation. It may be not accelerating but is still at elevated levels. ”
Cryptocurrency may be used as a hedge, not unlike gold: Arnab Das
It can go up and down like other financial assets and may be that is interesting from a speculative point of view or portfolio allocation point of view.
Invesco’s Arnab Das explains why US tech stocks are losing steam
There is concern that the US is not going to be generating the kind of inflation that people were hoping for. That accounts for some of the pressure on tech stocks and bond prices.
Don’t base investment thesis on Covid vaccine coming out soon: Invesco
‘We will have to be patient and hope for a vaccine but not bank on it anytime soon.’
A partially de-globalised world would offer more benefit from diversification: Arnab Das
‘US and many major economies will go through a bit of a square root-shaped recovery from this compression’
I don’t think world is heading towards direct rupture with China: Invesco
‘China’s assertiveness is causing tension with the US, the UK and some other countries.’
We’ll be grappling with economic fallout of virus crisis for several quarters: EM expert
There are bankruptcies taking place and there will be more of those.
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