BALANCED STANCE
Budget 2024: SBI wants Modi 3.0 to not obsess too much over fiscal stance
Budget expectations: The upcoming full Budget for 2024-25 under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government aims for fiscal prudence with a focus on a fiscal deficit target of 4.9%. SBI Research recommends not being overly fixated on this goal. The government aims to reduce fiscal deficit below 4.5% of GDP for 2025-26, with robust growth in revenues contributing to this strategy. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's sixth budget speech, scheduled for July 23, will mark a significant milestone, setting the financial course for Modi's third term.
View: Manufacturing isn’t about jobs but key to balancing trade deficits, securing geopolitical security
In a famous barnstorming speech, then-US senator Richard Nixon, battling charges of embezzlement of election funds, made an emotional appeal to voters by invoking his modest background and declaring his intention to retain his dog Checkers. This speech, known as the Checkers Speech, is a storied instance of the straw man phenomenon in the US political history.
RBI MPC Meeting 2024 at a glance: Here's a one-stop guide to all key decisions
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to maintain the current interest rate at 6.5%, following a 4:2 majority decision. The panel projected real GDP growth for FY25 to be 7.2%, up from 7%. The MPC is also maintaining the Standing Deposit Facility rate at 6.25% and the Marginal Standing Facility bank rate at 6.75%.
IPO-bound cos wary after poll results; NBFCs’ balancing act
Happy Friday! New-age firms planning to go public are moving cautiously as stock market volatility remains a concern after the 2024 general election results. This and more in today’s ETtech Morning Dispatch.
Past reforms will continue to drive economy over next 2 years: Neelkanth Mishra
In fact, with the RBI dividend being significantly better than what was budgeted, I would not be surprised if in the July budget, the government chooses to bring down its FY25 fiscal deficit target from 5.1% to 4.9% because that money is there.
National Green Tribunal lauded for suo motu action following Manipur CM's alert on forest cover loss
Addressing the media at his Secretariat in Imphal on Sunday, Singh lauded the NGT for swiftly taking note of the issue highlighted in his tweet, attributing the loss to deforestation, illegal encroachment, and widespread poppy cultivation.
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Encryption Clash Explained: WhatsApp's existence in India hangs in the balance
WhatsApp's encryption debate in the Delhi High Court has sparked a discussion on the balance between privacy and security. The court is considering a rule that requires social media companies to disclose message senders, raising concerns about privacy and data storage. WhatsApp argues that breaking encryption would violate user rights, while the government emphasizes the need for traceability in cases like communal violence. The court will continue hearings, with potential implications for messaging platforms and user privacy in India.
View: The ‘Modi-fication’ of India is still thrilling markets
In late 2013, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expressed optimism about India amidst a growth slowdown, titling its report "Modi-fying Our View," referring to Narendra Modi, then a favored prime ministerial candidate. However, a decade later, Modi's zeal for reform has waned, with the BJP's promises now more modest. Despite this, global financial industry support for Modi remains high, with expectations of increased overseas capital post-elections. This new investor-Modi compact focuses on what he won't do, such as following authoritarian paths like China's Xi Jinping or pursuing ultra-low interest rates like Turkey's Erdogan. With a favorable environment for investors, Modi's potential third term is anticipated to bring increased investment, guided by discretionary incentives and protective trade barriers.
Fragile yen could make BOJ's Ueda tilt more towards hawkish stance
The BOJ chief will be mindful of avoiding the episode of 2022, when his predecessor's dovish remarks triggered a yen plunge that forced Tokyo to intervene to prop up the currency.
Study finds Indian workers confident of adapting to change
Survey in India shows anticipation of role changes, high confidence in adaptation. Indians proactive in career development and tech adoption. Positive outlook on DEIB policies and AI impact.
MPC Minutes: Food inflation risks elevated, conditions not in place for let-up in restrictive policy stance, says RBI Dy Guv Patra
Members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee expressed confidence in the current policy stance but remained cautious about factors like food inflation and external contingencies. They emphasized the need to maintain downward pressure on inflation until clearer risks emerge, with concerns about persistently high inflation figures despite recent dips.
RBI leaves repo rate unchanged; retains “withdrawal of accommodation” stance
RBI maintains 6.50% repo rate after 3-day meeting, focusing on withdrawing accommodation. Supported by 5 of 6 MPC members. Minimal market impact on Sensex, Nifty 50.
Status quo for the 7th time? RBI MPC may not let rains ruin repo rate, stance this time around
The RBI MPC is expected to maintain the repo rate at 6.5 per cent, focusing on 'withdrawal of accommodation' stance, as per economists. If the RBI sticks to the current rates, it will mark the seventh consecutive time the key lending rate remains unchanged. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will reveal the outcome of the bimonthly meeting that began on April 3, with the decision scheduled for April 5 at 10 am.
ET Explainer: The RBI's liquidity stance and its effect
The Reserve Bank of India's liquidity stance is not convincing experts. It follows a corridor liquidity management system with repo rate as the ceiling and reverse repo rate as the floor. Factors causing tight liquidity include withdrawal of accommodative stance, credit growth surpassing deposit growth, fund constraints, slower government spending, and Ukraine war impacting forex reserves.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Nifty@22K! Retail investors can put lumpsum in Balanced Advantage, Value Funds & ELSS: Rajesh Bhatia
Rajesh Bhatia, CIO at ITI Mutual Fund, advises lumpsum investment in Balanced Advantage Funds, Value Funds, and ELSS Tax Saver Funds. He suggests systematic investment in mid and small-cap categories. India's weight in the MSCI index is increasing, attracting foreign capital inflow. The Indian corporate sector earnings have benefited from lower commodity prices.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: 2024 outlook! Flexicap and largecap funds offer a balanced approach in current scenario: Rajesh Bhatia
"While the debate is around whether we are at the late stages of a valuation cycle and investor optimism, it is equally important to know that we are at an early stage of an economic cycle. So, while valuations can possibly correct, the earnings trajectory is expected to march on for the next few years and will provide a downside buffer to markets."
ETMarkets Fund Manager Talk: Why is this CIO sticking to his overweight stance on domestic stocks ahead of elections?
According to Mihir Vora, the underlying domestic themes to be bullish on in the longer term are manufacturing, renewables, digitization, infrastructure, urbanization, premium consumption, financialization of savings, and the rise of equity savings cult. The market is already discounting elections and the verdict seems to be a continuity of regime.
BAT takes stance, gets ready to cut stake in ITC
BAT chief executive Tadeu Marroco said in its preliminary earnings release for 2023 that the company continues “to pursue all opportunities to enhance balance sheet flexibility” and as part of this regularly reviews its stake in ITC.
RBI holds rates; monetary stance change, rate cuts must wait
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained interest rates and monetary stance steady for the sixth consecutive monetary review meeting, amid geopolitical tensions and uncertain food prices. The central bank forecasts the economy will repeat its performance next fiscal, expanding at 7%, and inflation will remain above the target at 4.5%. The panel's focus on the withdrawal of accommodation has led to cracks in the Monetary Policy Committee, with both decisions voted 5 to 1.
Incomplete transmissions & inflationary challenges, RBI drops hints for those reading into MPC’s stance
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has maintained its stance and kept rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive meeting. Despite expectations for a change in policy stance due to easing core inflation and a fiscally prudent interim budget, the MPC opted to continue with the "withdrawal of accommodation" stance. Economists suggest the RBI may be hinting at delinking its stance with liquidity management. Bond yields initially dipped on expectations of a change in stance
Confident and calculated: Interim Budget 2024-25 strikes a smart balance
The unexpected Fiscal Deficit target for FY25, set at 5.1% of the GDP, pleasantly surprised the market, which had anticipated a higher figure. Keeping such an aggressive target has several positive implications for the market.
ETMarkets Fund Manager Talk: Why is this asset manager in favour of skewing portfolio towards largecaps in 2024?
Vivek Goel says: "Given that the Budget immediately prior to general elections is an interim one, similar to earlier interim budgets, we do not expect any major announcements. It is most likely expected to maintain the course of current policy giving markets comfort on continuity. With expectations of monetary policy easing up in 2024 after one of the steepest rate hike cycles, we should see FII flows come back strongly as India has stood out in a difficult period."
Narayana Murthy's '70-hour work week' backlash meets surprising support from 'Western friends and NRIs'
In a recent interview, Infosys founder Narayana Murthy reaffirmed advocating for a 70-hour work week, defending his stance amidst criticism. Emphasizing the necessity of hard work in India, Murthy cited support from various quarters and highlighted the responsibility of educated individuals. Sudha Murty echoed this sentiment, sharing familial experiences. Murthy detailed his rigorous work routine and reiterated his commitment to 70-hour work weeks. His earlier call for intense work hours had drawn both support and criticism for its impact on work-life balance.
India's gold market at crossroads: Balancing demographic dividends and evolving economic dynamics
To unravel the complexities of India's gold market, an econometric model takes centre stage. Drawing on three decades of data from 1990 to 2020, this model deciphers the complex relationship between income, gold prices, and government policies. The findings reveal that, on the long-term horizon, rising income plays the most substantial role in driving gold demand.
Assumption of shift to neutral stance incorrect, can't provide forward guidance: RBI Governor Das
The Reserve Bank of India-led Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) five consecutive no-action policies in no way signals that the central bank is leaning towards a Neutral stance, said Governor Shaktikanta Das in the post policy press conference on Friday.
India's Foreign Policy: A principled stance on the Hamas-Israel conflict
India's stance on the Hamas-Israel conflict demonstrates its ability to take a nuanced position by condemning Hamas as the aggressor while providing aid to innocent civilians. This shows India's commitment to distinguishing between perpetrators and collateral damage. India supports Israel and calls for a political solution to the conflict, emphasizing its commitment to diplomacy and dialogue over violence.
World's best emerging market! Morgan Stanley increases overweight stance on India
"The dream run of domestic flows continues and multipolar world dynamics are driving both FDI and portfolio flows toward India. Recent high-frequency trends also support our bullish stance with inflation concerns abating and the trade balance improving," it said in a report.
JK Rowling criticises Labour's Lisa Nandy for transgender stance
Rowling questioned Nandy's support for women's rights by referencing previous comments made by the Labour frontbencher and a letter she signed, which advocated the expulsion of Labour members holding "bigoted, transphobic views." The author has been vocal about her criticism of Labour's stance on transgender issues, especially after Labour leader Keir Starmer stated, "trans women are women."
ETMarkets Fund Manager Talk: Why is this asset manager shifting to a balanced portfolio from an aggressive stance?
Indian equities may be trading closer to their historical averages on a forward earnings basis, but valuations in the broader market appear stretched. In light of this, Vivek Goel, of Tailwind Financial Services, recommends moving to a balanced portfolio and increasing allocation to hybrid funds to bolster debt exposure. Goel also suggests favoring largecap stocks due to their relatively lower valuations compared to the broader market.
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