CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND REFORMS
Economic cracks are getting exposed in the 2024 market bounty
Dispiriting trends that have been visible for months now alongside the frenzy for megacap tech stocks and private credit – are on display yet again. Companies with dicey balance sheets have underperformed anew in June. Equal-weighted stock benchmarks where disruptive AI market leaders have the same weighting as industrial bellwethers have lagged yet again.
The fuel secretly powering India’s economy — GCCs
The growth of global capability centers (GCCs) in India is fueling various sectors and contributing significantly to the economy. With projections indicating substantial growth in the coming years, GCCs are becoming strategic assets for companies and investors, driving innovation and job creation across industries.
Strategic reforms in customs duties, GST, commerce to push India's inclusive growth, says GTRI
The think tank suggested increasing the GST exemption limit for a firm's annual turnover from 40 lakh to 1.5 crore as this will be transformative for India's MSME sector, promoting job creation and growth. Firms with less than Rs 1.5 crore turnover make up over 80 per cent of registrations but contribute less than 7 per cent of the tax collected, it said adding a yearly turnover of 1.5 crore equals 12-13 lakh monthly turnover, translating to just Rs 1.2 lakh at a 10 per cent profit margin.
China's attempt to influence Bangladeshi youth: Center for China Studies
China has chosen a different path to establish its soft power dominance in Bangladesh by introducing an initiative called the 'Center for China Studies.' Collaborating with the 'Shanghai Institute of International Studies' and local intellectuals, China is trying to influence the youth of various universities in Bangladesh.
Investment returns during coalition govt: Modi 3.0 might be good for stock market, mutual fund investors, show trends during previous govts
How will be Modi 3.0 for investments? The stock market experienced a sharp decline following the Lok Sabha elections 2024, causing concern among young investors. They are worried about their investments as a coalition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government prepares to take oath on June 9, 2024. Will the volatility in the stock market continue? How will NDA-3.0 be for your hard-earned money? Is there a bad government for your investments? Should the incoming government worry debt investors? Should you invest in equities, mutual funds or debt instruments? Questions such as these are worrying investors. So here are some answers that should give an idea of what is in store for you in the next five years.
Indian exports: How Modi 3.0 can navigate the protectionist tides in advanced economies like US and EU
India has transitioned from a decade of single-party rule to a new era of coalition politics, causing concern among stock market investors about potential slowdowns in economic reforms. Rising protectionist measures from advanced economies like the US and EU pose challenges for Indian exporters, with stringent regulations on products ranging from chemicals to food items. The impact of these barriers could disproportionately restrict India's economic objectives and competitiveness, particularly in key sectors like textiles and apparel.
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Modi 3.0: How different will be the third Modi government
Narendra Modi is scheduled to take take oath for the third term as India's Prime Minister in a changed political landscape. Allies demand concessions, potentially affecting economic agenda. Expectations for populist budget with focus on welfare and rural areas, though concerns raised over economic impact. Reform agenda may face challenges due to weakened mandate, but continuity likely in infrastructure investment and business environment improvements.
Modi 3.0 has heavy lifting to do on tax reforms to managing stock risks
Economists outline key priorities for India's incoming government, emphasizing the need for growth, job creation, and macro stability. Pronab Sen highlights the importance of sustainable livelihoods, while Pranjul Bhandari suggests that 'easy' reforms could maintain 6.5% growth. However, achieving 70 million jobs requires politically sensitive reforms in agriculture, labor, and land. Additional recommendations include infrastructure investment, judicial reforms, enhancing export competitiveness, and further tax reforms, particularly bringing petroleum and power under GST.
Stock Radar: Over 200% rally in a year! This multibagger Adani group company is a good buy-on-dips stock; here’s why
The power stock rose from Rs 255 in June 2023 to Rs 874 in June 2024, showing an upside of over 240% in a year. It has been gaining momentum in the past few months, rising over 13% in a week, more than 30% in a month and over 40% in the last 3 months.
Are senior GCC roles creating an opportunity for IT services professionals?
The mushrooming of global capability centers is driving the need for senior talent sourced from the IT services industry, with a shift to GCCs. Indian GCCs offer value in cost efficiency, innovation, and market expansion, attracting senior IT executives for global leadership roles.
Modi’s election setback only a blip for some global stock funds
“The first thing I did was message my portfolio managers who invest in India to say if Nifty banks are down because of a lower-than-expected mandate for Modi, it’s a buying opportunity,” Sai said in an interview on Tuesday.
Stock Radar: Over 200% rally in a year! This multibagger Adani group company is a good buy-on-dips stock; here’s why
The power stock rose from Rs 255 in June 2023 to Rs 874 in June 2024, showing an upside of over 240% in a year. It has been gaining momentum in the past few months, rising over 13% in a week, more than 30% in a month and over 40% in the last 3 months.
Will an empowered Modi bring back a big-bang reform?
If exit polls are accurate and Prime Minister Narendra Modi returns to power with a strong majority, major economic reforms are expected. This might include revisiting land acquisition laws to facilitate industrial growth. Land reforms are crucial for India's manufacturing ambitions. Digitisation of land records could streamline processes and accelerate development projects.
US risks a ‘Forever’ trade war with China, says Economist Stephen Roach
The US is erecting new trade barriers that will hold back China’s sales of key products like electric vehicles, accusing Beijing of building excess capacity using state subsidies and flooding global markets with cheap products.
Exit Polls: Top D-Street voices echo continuation of policy reform in Modi 3.0
Exit polls indicate a clear advantage for the BJP-led NDA faction. Experts foresee a continuation of reform policies in PM Modi's third term.
Rupee falls on month-end dollar demand; election results in focus
The Indian rupee declined on Friday, pressured by month-end dollar demand from importers, with investors awaiting the outcome of the country's general elections for fresh cues.
Ten yrs on, S&P outlook for India turns 'positive'
S&P Global Ratings has upgraded India's sovereign outlook to 'positive' after 10 years, citing improved public spending quality and expectations of continuity in reforms and fiscal policies. India's rating remains BBB- but could be upgraded if cautious fiscal and monetary policies reduce government debt and interest burden while boosting economic resilience. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman welcomed the upgrade, attributing it to macroeconomic reforms since 2014. Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth expressed confidence in India's economy, highlighting robust growth and improved credit metrics.
If Modi wins India's mammoth Lok Sabha elections, his third regime will need tough reforms to lure foreign firms
Lok Sabha Elections: As Modi gears up for a potential third term, global firms highlight challenges facing India's economy: policy inconsistencies, bureaucratic delays, and scarcity of land. Despite improved business sentiment, actual investment remains stagnant, with foreign direct investment dropping. Key priorities for the new government include policy coordination among states, labor law implementation, skills development, land reform, trade measures, and fulfilling BJP's promises for economic growth and global manufacturing hub status.
Melinda French Gates to give $1 billion for women's rights
French Gates, one of the biggest philanthropic supporters of gender equity in the US, said Tuesday in a guest essay for The New York Times that she's been frustrated over the years by people who say it's not the right time to talk about gender equality. "Decades of research on economics, well-being and governance make it clear that investing in women and girls benefits everyone," she wrote.
A new trade war offers no easy way back for old global order
The US-China trade war has intensified with the use of tariffs and subsidies, impacting Europe and China. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned of global business risks.
Is India suffering from an unemployment issue? PM Modi says the country is generating jobs
Prime Minister Narendra Modi defended his government's job creation efforts, citing a significant increase in taxpayers and EPFO subscribers, and growth in the startup sector. Modi emphasised his vision of a 'Viksit Bharat,' where every Indian can dream big. He highlighted achievements in manufacturing, research, and self-reliance. He pledges to focus on infrastructure and development if re-elected for a third term.
'Have delivered on 2019 promise of putting corrupt behind bars, our govt leveraged technology to tackle corruption': PM Modi
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, currently vying for a third consecutive term, reaffirms his 2019 pledge to incarcerate corrupt individuals, asserting that he has fulfilled this promise. In an extensive discussion with ET, PM Modi addressed various topics. He reiterates the government's dedication to ensuring that the benefits of progress extend to all individuals in need, irrespective of their caste, creed, or geographical location.
Asserting its strategic choice, China backs Russia to the hilt
China supports Russia in the Ukraine conflict, defying calls for neutrality. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, autocratic leaders, reaffirm their alliance during Putin's visit to mark the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations. They strengthen military cooperation, denounce US actions, and agree on deep-space exploration, satellite navigation systems, telecommunications, and a multipolar world order.
Why secularism is dying in India and beyond
Religiosity is seeing a more messianic fervour across the religious spectrum in India. The same is the case with Europe and the US where atheists and agnostics are fighting an existential battle
"ISRO aims to explore human space flight activities, build space stations": Chairman Somnath
Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) Chairman Sreedhara Panicker Somanath on Sunday attended a programme at a school and said that the space agency aims to explore human space flight activities and build space stations.
India stocks set for biggest monthly FII outflows in a year on election risks, China appeal
Global investors have pulled a net $3.5 billion from India’s stock markets so far in May, on course for the biggest withdrawal since June 2023, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Chabahar brings to fore India's hidden infrastructural play
Modi government's infrastructure upgrade includes a vast network of roads, bridges, and high-speed trains. The transformation extends to invisible sectors like ports, with Chabahar Port key to India's geopolitical strategy. The International North-South Transport Corridor will boost trade with Europe and Russia, while ongoing port development supports Modi's vision of a manufacturing powerhouse.
Uzbekistan positions itself as a regional investment hub
Uzbekistan positions itself as a regional investment hub amid reforms and a focus on the market economy, attracting foreign investments, including from India. The Third Tashkent International Investment Forum, held on May 2-3, aimed to boost investments. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev participated, along with representatives from various countries. The forum has become a platform for bilateral and multilateral investment cooperation.
Tamil Nadu demographic could hurt the BJP's ambitious plans for the state
As per the Census in 2011, Hindus are a majority in the state constituting 87.58% of Tamil Nadu's 7.21 crore. The Muslim population comprise 5.86% of the total population while the Christians make up 6.12%.
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