COUNTRY S FISCAL
Govt likely to stick to fiscal consolidation path, focus on rural economy: Santanu Sengupta, Goldman Sachs
“When government spending on capex was raised from 1.5% of GDP to over 3% of GDP, that provided a positive impulse to growth. It cannot continue with that kind of growth rate anymore and will flatten out. So, it will be around 15% for capex growth against the budgeted number of 17% YOY.”
Crude prices to average at $83-88 in FY25, may increase govt fiscal burden: CRISIL
Crisil reports average crude oil prices are expected to rise to $83-$88 per barrel in fiscal 2025 from $83 in the previous year. This increase may strain India’s fiscal budget, given its reliance on crude imports. The report also projects India's real GDP growth at 6.8% for FY 2024-25 and anticipates a softened consumer price inflation at 4.5%. Despite challenges, a positive rural economic outlook is forecasted, buoyed by an expected above-normal monsoon.
Hindustan Copper may exceed capex target of Rs 350 cr this fiscal year
Hindustan Copper Ltd will likely exceed its Rs 350 crore capex target this year, repeating last year’s success. The company’s expansion includes Rakha mine projects, driven by double-digit demand growth in key sectors. Under Ministry of Mines control, India's low per capita copper consumption boosts potential. It produces and markets copper concentrate, cathodes, and continuous cast rods.
India to clock GDP growth of 7% in FY25: NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani
NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani predicts India's economy will grow around 7 per cent this fiscal year and maintain this rate for years, despite facing new challenges. The Reserve Bank of India forecasts a 7.2 per cent GDP growth rate for FY25. Virmani notes a recovery in private consumption post-pandemic, attributing it to a "double drought" situation. He believes coalition politics may slow privatisation in some states but remains optimistic overall. Virmani expects FDI to rise in emerging markets, including India, once US interest rates decrease.
Domestic air passenger momentum to continue this fiscal, says report
The aviation industry outlook remains stable with continued recovery in air passenger traffic. Despite challenges like grounded fleets and supply chain issues, airlines are expected to face a net loss of Rs 3,000-4,000 crore in FY2025.
India generates 46.7 million jobs in 2023-24 fiscal: RBI data
The employment growth rate for the fastest growing major economy stood at 6% in FY24 against 3.2% in the preceding fiscal, the central bank said Monday in a report on measuring productivity on industry level.
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How balanced is the surplus Balance of Payments!
RBI's BoP data shows a $5.7 bn surplus for March 2024, driven by service exports and $107 bn remittances. It reverses an $8.7 bn deficit. Fiscal year's deficit is $23.3 bn. Merchandise trade deficit narrowed. Despite the surplus, net FDI flows dropped, and rupee appreciation is unlikely. Global Captive Centers indicate services expansion, but domestic manufacturing growth remains subdued.
Punjab & Sind Bank plans to open 100 branches this fiscal
The bank plans to more than double its BC network during the current fiscal, Punjab & Sind Bank Managing Director Swarup Kumar Saha said, adding, that the bank is trying to expand this network to 4,000 by the end of the current financial year against 1,700 at present.
Budget 2024: Top three moves that NDA govt must consider for employment generation
Budget 2024: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to present the Union Budget on July 23 in Lok Sabha, kicking off the parliamentary session running from July 22 to August 22. The upcoming budget under the NDA government is anticipated to prioritize sustaining economic growth, promoting job creation, and adhering to fiscal deficit targets.
Ather Energy aims to raise market share with foray into family scooter segment
Electric two-wheeler maker Ather Energy aims to boost its market share as it expands into the family scooter segment, according to a company official. The Bengaluru-based company has so far focused on manufacturing sporty scooters.
Not politics, not interest rates: India's surging economy at risk from water
India is facing a growing water crisis, with the country's growing water stress potentially impacting its growth. The country's growing water stress could affect agricultural production and industrial operations, leading to food inflation and declines in income for affected businesses and workers, especially farmers. Contaminated water kills about 200,000 Indians each year, and the government is focusing on conserving the resource, recycling waste water, and reducing the country's over-reliance on the annual monsoon, especially in the agricultural sector.
India's rating upgrade possible in next 24 months if fiscal deficit falls to 4%: S&P
India could receive a sovereign rating upgrade in the next 24 months if the central government manages its finances prudently and reduces the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP. The trigger for the upgrade would be a general government deficit falling below 7% of the GDP, with a significant portion driven by the central government. The central government estimates a fiscal deficit of 5.1% of GDP in the current fiscal, down from 5.63% in 2023-24.
Path towards structural reforms and fiscal prudence will continue in Budget 2024: Navneet Munot
Markets are at a new high. It is definitely a cause of celebration. It reflects India's macroeconomic fundamentals. It reflects that India has got political stability, macroeconomic stability, financial stability. There is tremendous faith on the government's policy continuity.
Charting the global economy: Inflation ebbs in US, France, Spain
With inflation settling down in many European economies, there are signs that central banks in the areas could reduce interest rates.
Confident of over $800 billion exports in goods, services this fiscal, says Piyush Goyal
India recorded a current account surplus of USD 5.7 billion or 0.6 per cent of GDP in the March quarter. This is the first time in ten quarters that the crucial metric of the country's external strength has turned into surplus mode. In the year-ago period, the current account deficit stood at USD 1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP, and the same was USD 8.7 billion or 1 per cent of GDP in the preceding quarter ending December 2023.
Pakistan's National Assembly passes Rs 18,877 billion budget for fiscal 2024-25
The budget, facing opposition, sets growth targets and tax revenue goals while addressing concerns about IMF loans and tax exemptions to aid economic growth.
Priyank Kharge meets IT minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, requests Centre's support for state's chip firms
Karnataka IT minister Priyank Kharge met Ashwini Vaishnaw, union IT minister, to seek support for the state's semiconductor and electronics space. Kharge said that the State has the highest share of 46% in India in housing innovative companies and contributes 10% of India's industrial output.
Fiscal discipline key to India's growth prospects: Sanjay Nayar
So, we will have to also think about how we channel the energies towards more advanced and more modern techniques and technology, because that is what we need right now.
Adani Group to increase capex in FY25 to Rs 1.3 lakh crore from Rs 70,000 cr
Adani Group plans to increase FY2025 capital expenditure to Rs 1.3 lakh crore ($15.6 billion) from Rs 70,000 crore. Adani Green Energy will allocate 340 billion rupees to add 6 gigawatts of capacity. The conglomerate aims to leverage India's infrastructure growth, dismissing rumors of a stake in Paytm but open to fintech opportunities.
Pre-Budget meet: Exporters to seek support measures to boost exports
Exporters are set to discuss fiscal support measures with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday aiming to boost India's exports to USD 2 trillion by 2030. This goal encompasses both goods and services, reflecting a marked increase from the current USD 778 billion in 2023-24.
Budget to indicate policy priorities of coalition govt, says Moody's
Moody's Analytics highlighted that the upcoming Union Budget will set policy priorities for the coalition government, shaping the next five years' growth trajectory.
Chris Wood of Jefferies cuts stake in 3 PSU stocks as PM Modi faces coalition challenge
Chris Wood predicts investors may tilt towards consumption plays over investment plays, anticipating focus on populist measures and revival of rural economy. The obvious possibility here is measures to revive the rural economy, he said.
Weaker BJP in power won't increase borrowing in July budget, says Kotak Mahindra Bank
Budget 2024: A weaker majority for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's alliance may lead to increased welfare spending without the need for additional borrowing, potentially limiting a rise in bond yields, according to a senior executive at Kotak Mahindra Bank . The government is expected to utilize a large dividend from the Reserve Bank of India for welfare schemes, rather than increasing gross borrowing in the upcoming budget. Despite concerns of populist measures, the executive rules out a supply cut in bonds and forecasts the 10-year benchmark yield to remain below 7.10% over the next six months.
Lok Sabha results won't force India's budget to make significant policy shifts: Fitch
Fitch Ratings anticipates minimal policy shifts in India post-election losses. The upcoming July budget will detail economic reform plans and fiscal goals for the next five years, crucial for addressing fiscal metrics, reducing debt, potential deviations from capital expenditure commitments, the risk of heightened social spending, progress in judicial reforms at the state level, and reforms in the manufacturing sector.
Coalition politics, weakened mandate could make passing legislations on ambitious reforms challenging: Fitch
Fitch Ratings predicts that the new government in India, led by Narendra Modi, will face challenges in passing legislation on ambitious reforms due to coalition politics and a weakened mandate. Major reforms to land and labour laws will remain on the agenda, but these have been contentious and the NDA's weaker mandate could complicate their passage further. The BJP fell short of a single-party majority in the 543-seat lower house of parliament for the first time since its latest period in government in 2014.
BlackRock stays bullish on Indian bonds after narrow Modi win
Neeraj Seth, chief investment officer at BlackRock, predicts that India's fiscal consolidation under Modi's leadership will continue. Cooling inflation may lead the Reserve Bank of India to ease later this year, supporting the preference for longer duration bonds like the seven and 10 year ones.
New govt may cut FY25 fiscal deficit target amid robust growth and windfall RBI dividend
In the interim budget in February, the government had set the FY25 fiscal deficit goal at 5.1% of GDP and revised the FY24 target to 5.8%. However, the actual fiscal gap for FY24 was contained at 5.6%. With exit polls projecting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to retain power with a strong majority, policy continuity is expected, and the government may aim to further improve the fiscal deficit target for the upcoming fiscal year starting April 1, 2025.
S&P Global to observe India's fiscal glidepath for ratings upgrade
S&P Global Ratings will monitor India's fiscal consolidation efforts over the next two years for a potential sovereign ratings upgrade. Despite raising the outlook to "positive," the rating remains "BBB-." Focus is on India's fiscal deficit reduction targets, fiscal discipline with RBI's surplus transfer, and its ability to manage inflation.
Saudi Arabia may announce landmark Aramco share sale today: Report
Saudi Arabia may announce a landmark secondary share offering in oil giant Aramco later on Thursday, pending final approval from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, people with knowledge of the matter said.
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