CURRENT FISCAL
Not politics, not interest rates: India's surging economy at risk from water
India is facing a growing water crisis, with the country's growing water stress potentially impacting its growth. The country's growing water stress could affect agricultural production and industrial operations, leading to food inflation and declines in income for affected businesses and workers, especially farmers. Contaminated water kills about 200,000 Indians each year, and the government is focusing on conserving the resource, recycling waste water, and reducing the country's over-reliance on the annual monsoon, especially in the agricultural sector.
India's rating upgrade possible in next 24 months if fiscal deficit falls to 4%: S&P
India could receive a sovereign rating upgrade in the next 24 months if the central government manages its finances prudently and reduces the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP. The trigger for the upgrade would be a general government deficit falling below 7% of the GDP, with a significant portion driven by the central government. The central government estimates a fiscal deficit of 5.1% of GDP in the current fiscal, down from 5.63% in 2023-24.
Revenues of top 18 states to grow 8 to 10 per cent this fiscal: CRISIL
Revenues of India's top 18 states, accounting for 90% of the gross state domestic product, are projected to grow by 8-10% to ₹38 lakh crore this fiscal year, driven by robust GST collections and central fund devolution, according to a CRISIL Ratings report. This follows a 7% growth in revenues last year.
Economy on strong wicket after fiscal first quarter
India's economy showed strong first-quarter performance with surging manufacturing activity, robust GST collections, and record-high Sensex, alongside a rise in passenger car sales and new export orders from overseas markets, as highlighted by industry experts and economic indicators.
Budget 2024: Will Sitharaman stick to fiscal prudence this time around? All you need to know about India’s fiscal deficit
Fiscal Deficit of India 2023-24 | Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's 2024 Budget, scheduled for July, aims to navigate India's fiscal deficit amidst varied economic priorities and coalition dynamics. With fiscal discipline crucial, the Modi 3.0 government seeks to balance capital expenditure initiatives with rural, healthcare, and educational needs while aiming to achieve a fiscal deficit target of 5.2% and eventually 4.5% by 2025-26 | Union Budget 2024
Confident of over $800 billion exports in goods, services this fiscal, says Piyush Goyal
India recorded a current account surplus of USD 5.7 billion or 0.6 per cent of GDP in the March quarter. This is the first time in ten quarters that the crucial metric of the country's external strength has turned into surplus mode. In the year-ago period, the current account deficit stood at USD 1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP, and the same was USD 8.7 billion or 1 per cent of GDP in the preceding quarter ending December 2023.
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Fiscal deficit hits 3% of full FY25 target in April-May at Rs 50,615 crore
India's fiscal deficit for April-May reached approximately 3% of FY25's target, totaling Rs 50,615 crore. PM Narendra Modi's third term priorities include tackling agricultural distress, job creation, sustaining capital expenditure, and enhancing revenue growth for fiscal consolidation. S&P upgraded India's sovereign rating outlook to positive, contingent on fiscal discipline
Narrowing trade deficit, rise in remittances aid current account surplus: CRISIL
Financial flows also increased leading to accretion in foreign exchange reserves during the fourth quarter amounting to USD 30.8 billion, it said. The country's foreign reserves, as of June 14, 2024, stood at USD 652.9 billion. The report said even though the FDI inflows continued, there has also been a rise in outward FDI, leading to a reduction in net flows, the report said.
India's FY24 CAD reduces to 0.7% of GDP from 2% in FY23, records surplus of 0.6% in Q4
India's current account deficit improved significantly to 0.7% of GDP, or $23.2 billion in FY24, down from 2% of GDP, or $67 billion the previous year, attributed to a decrease in merchandise trade deficit, according to the Reserve Bank of India. The country's current account balance showed a surplus of 0.6% of GDP in Q4 FY24, a turnaround from deficits in earlier quarters.
India's world-beating growth pace to continue, says RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das
"In the first three quarters of 2023-24, the current account deficit was 1.2% (of GDP)," Das said. "Our teams are working on the fourth quarter numbers. They look to be even lower, and when you look at the annual current account deficit number, I will not be surprised next week when we publish the current account deficit numbers - they could be even lower than 1% (of GDP)," he said at the ET Now event.
SBI expects 14-15 pc credit growth in current fiscal: Chairman Khara
SBI expects 14-15% loan growth in FY 2024-25, based on GDP growth rate, inflation, and risk appetite. Chairman Dinesh Kumar Khara mentioned the bank's excess SLR and efforts to increase deposit rates for growth.
Inflation expected to average 4.5% this fiscal: Crisil
CRISIL forecasts inflation at 4.5% this fiscal year, anticipating softer food inflation and higher non-food inflation. The report flags worries about food categories like cereals and pulses.
No rate cut seen in August either, but enough signs of a shift in stance
In the normal course of events, the rising dissent in the MPC should have led to more joining the camp of rate cut seekers as data turns benign. Inflation may not have come back to the 4% target, but it's not threatening to soar. For the US, it is at 3.4% in April when the target is 2%.
India's medium-term fiscal consolidation likely to get more challenging, Fitch says
India's medium-term fiscal consolidation faces challenges with a new coalition government coming to power, potentially impacting a ratings upgrade, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP fell short of a majority. Fitch Ratings analyst Jeremy Zook expects the government to aim for a 4.5% fiscal deficit by 2025-26, but uncertainty looms beyond. The central bank's surplus transfer aids fiscal goals, but a coalition government may complicate consolidation efforts.
A weaker Modi government will slow India's fiscal tightening, Moody's says
Indian PM Modi's narrower election victory limits aggressive fiscal reforms, per Moody's analyst Christian de Guzman. BJP secured 240 seats, with NDA totaling 293. Despite this, fiscal consolidation will persist, but populist spending risks increase. India's fiscal deficit target is 4.5% by 2025/26. Bond yields surged post-election, and Moody's sees stable economic prospects.
Modi govt's fiscal consolidation pace post-Covid worse than peers? Moody's report flags weaker fiscal, debt metrics
Moody's rating agency has pointed out that India's fiscal consolidation following the Covid-19 pandemic has lagged behind when compared to its peers. This includes several emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region.
Sun Pharma expects high single-digit top line growth in current fiscal
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries expects high single-digit top line growth in FY24 with total revenue at Rs 48,497 crore, led by Managing Director Dilip Shanghvi. The firm anticipates similar growth in FY25 with investments in product launches and R&D activities.
Economy expands 7.8% in Q4, lifting FY24 growth to 8.2%
This is the highest annual growth since FY17, excluding the 9.7% post-Covid rebound in gross domestic product (GDP) in FY22 after the 5.8% contraction in FY21. The advance estimate released in February had pegged FY24 growth at 7.6%. Economists and government expect the high growth to continue though tepid private consumption remains a concern.
India's fiscal numbers, growth to be monitored for upgrade in next 24 months, says S&P
"India's very fast growth rate is an extremely important factor in the ratings and supports our economic assessment. It's also giving us more confidence that, despite the elevated fiscal deficits, in comparison to peers, the debt level of the government is going to stabilise relative to GDP and probably moderately fall over time," said Andrew Wood, director, sovereign & international public finance ratings, Asia-Pacific, S&P Global Ratings.
Govt may lower fiscal deficit target below 5.1 pc for FY25
For previous financial year ended March 2024, the fiscal deficit was better at 5.6 per cent of the GDP as against estimates of 5.8 per cent accounted in the interim Budget presented on February 1.
Economists project continued economic momentum and stability after India reports robust GDP growth in Q4
India's economy experienced a 7.8% growth rate in the January-March quarter, surpassing expectations due to strong performance in the manufacturing sector. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter of FY24 was slightly lower than the revised 8.6% growth in the previous quarter. Economists are optimistic about sustained momentum throughout the year, with the gap between GDP and gross value added (GVA) expected to normalize from the second quarter of FY25.
S&P Global will likely raise India's rating within 2 years, Citi says
Citi anticipates S&P Global Ratings will upgrade India's sovereign rating by late 2026, following S&P's recent outlook improvement to 'positive' from 'stable'. Citi cites S&P's confidence in India's economic fundamentals and fiscal trajectory. India's fiscal health, aiming to reduce its deficit, is key to the potential upgrade.
Large Indian banks are expected to improve their asset quality in the current fiscal: S&P
India's top banks are set for asset quality improvement in the fiscal year, driven by record profits, which will enhance their balance sheets and underwriting standards. Despite a rise in HDFC Bank's nonperforming loans post-merger, all major banks reported record profits. Retail loans drive growth amid moderating credit expansion expectations.
FY25 capital expenditure outlay may be hiked by 10%
India may increase FY25 capital expenditure by 8-10% from the ₹11.11 lakh crore vote on account allocation, boosted by better tax revenue and a record RBI surplus transfer. The full budget, awaited post-election results on June 4, could see a surge in spending, as per a senior official.
Income Tax department notifies cost inflation index for current fiscal
The Income Tax Department has notified the Cost Inflation Index (CII) for the fiscal year 2024-25, set at 363, to calculate long-term capital gains from the sale of assets. The CII reflects economic inflation, with an increase of 15 points from the previous year, aiding taxpayers in adjusting gains for inflation and reducing tax liabilities.
India to get rating support if it uses RBI dividend to reduce fiscal deficit: S&P analyst
S&P Global Rating suggests India could improve its rating if it channels the record Rs 2.1 lakh crore dividend from the RBI to reduce fiscal deficit. The dividend, around 0.35% of GDP, could aid fiscal consolidation, potentially supporting a faster path to reducing the deficit and boosting India's creditworthiness.
Government gets Rs 2.11 lakh crore from RBI by way of dividend
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has transferred a record surplus of Rs 2.1 lakh crore to the central government for FY’2023-24, exceeding expectations. This windfall, largely from interest income on overseas securities and income from LAF operations, strengthens the government's fiscal position and may lead to a reduction in borrowing. The surplus, determined by the Economic Capital Framework (ECF), represents 25.5% of RBI's total assets.
Household savings likely revived in FY24: Crisil
Household savings in India likely saw a recovery in FY24, rebounding from a low in FY23, driven by increased deposit growth, investments in markets and real estate, and subdued consumption, according to Crisil. Bank deposits grew 13.5%, mutual fund investments rose, and domestic savings financed rising investments.
India may raise FY25 CPSE dividend target in full budget
The finance ministry is set to increase CPSE dividend estimates by Rs 5,000 crore to approximately Rs 53,000 crore for the current fiscal year in the full budget to be presented in July. This adjustment reflects improved dividend forecasts based on updated financial data. Dividend receipts for 2023-24 totaled Rs 63,000 crore.
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