DECEMBER FOOD INFLATION
US inflation cools in May; consumer spending rises moderately
ART HOGAN from B RILEY WEALTH notes the stable 2.6% core PCE, potentially leading to Fed rate cuts. The overall economic indicators suggest a favorable environment for equities, with ongoing downward trends in treasury yields.
India’s wholesale prices accelerate to 15-month high of 2.61% in May
India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) surged to a 15-month high of 2.61 percent in May, up from 1.26 percent in April 2023. This increase was notably higher compared to the 3.48 percent decline seen in May 2023. The numbers accelerated significantly, with WPI reaching 7.4 percent in May, up from 5.5 percent in April and 4.82 percent in May 2023. Primary articles inflation rose to 7.2 percent in May from 5.01 percent in April, while fuel and power inflation remained subdued at around 1.4 percent.
India's retail inflation eases further in May; here's what experts say
India's retail inflation rate softens in May to a 12-month low of 4.75%, below RBI's 2-6% comfort level. Analysts foresee a potential rate cut if food inflation moderates and CPI inflation eases further.
Expect repo rate cut only in October RBI policy meeting: SBI Research
The report, authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, SBI's Group Chief Economic Adviser, expects first repo rate cut in October meeting. The repo rate is the rate of interest at which the RBI lends to other banks.
Households expect inflation to rise over 3 month & one year horizon
Households in India expect inflation to decrease in the short term but anticipate a slight increase over the next three months to a year, according to a survey by the Reserve Bank of India. Inflation expectations for the coming months rose slightly, with more respondents predicting price increases across various product categories. The central bank projects CPI inflation for 2024-25 at 4.5%, with risks balanced and slightly higher projections for subsequent quarters.
RBI MPC Meeting: Das & Co may look at food bills to keep its stance, rate unchanged
RBI Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to maintain the repo rate at 6.5% with a focus on withdrawing accommodation, marking the eighth consecutive time it remains unchanged. Economists predict the unchanged stance, citing persistent inflation in food prices and global commodity price risks. RBI Governor's decision is crucial post-elections.
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A dozen consumer companies line up IPOs amid a thriving stock market
India's primary market anticipates a dozen consumer-facing companies to launch IPOs this year to capitalize on market potential. Companies like Coca-Cola's bottling partner HCCB, CG Foods, Allied Blenders & Distillers, Urban Tots, Cremica Food, Patel's R Mart, PNG Jewellers, Baazar Style Retail, Unicommerce eSolutions, One Mobikwik Systems, and Swiggy are among those planning IPOs.
RBI unlikely to cut rates; Sustained vigil on inflation expected
RBI to hold rates on strong GDP growth. Inflation within target range but food inflation high. RBI cautious on weather impact.
Normal southwest monsoon augurs well for food production, easing price pressures, says FinMin in monthly review
In its review, the Finance Ministry also reiterated its faith in India's ability to deal with adverse pressures from geopolitical tensions, while continuing to make progress on its growth numbers. "The positive indications in the farm sector should help India firewall against any adverse pressures that may arise from geopolitical tensions and global commodity prices," the review from the Finance Ministry said.
Due to demand-supply mismatches, pulses inflation to stay high till October: Experts
Experts caution on prolonged high pulse prices until new crop in October, impacting food inflation. In April, pulse inflation was 16.8%, with tur at 31.4%, gram at 14.6%, and urad at 14.3%. Government eases import restrictions, including duty-free lentils imports, to address production challenges.
India's retail inflation eases marginally to 11-month low of 4.83 per cent in April
In April, India's retail inflation slightly decreased to 4.83 percent annually from 4.85 percent the previous month, as per government data released on Monday. According to a Reuters poll of 44 economists, the estimated figure was 4.80 percent.
Monsoon holds key for RBI's future monetary policy actions
As India faces summer heatwaves, chances of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reducing interest rates dwindle. The Bank of Baroda report links severe heat to potential food price impacts, underscoring the monsoon's critical role. Despite forecasts of above-normal monsoon, inflation challenges persist, delaying RBI's policy adjustments. Heatwaves disrupt travel, impacting sectors differently.
India inflation likely slipped in April: Reuters poll
India's consumer price inflation is expected to ease to 4.80% in April, driven by persistent food inflation challenges. Economists foresee inflation remaining around 5% or higher in the coming months, with the RBI expected to cut interest rates next quarter.
High demand, dip in production push millet prices up 17%
High demand, social media trends, and production decline increase millet prices. Raginflation at 16.6% in March. Jowar inflation at 10%. Millets gaining popularity in healthy snacks, sweets. Government initiatives and rising demand may affect output and prices.
Food price pressures deter swifter fall in inflation towards 4% target, says RBI Bulletin
"Even as inflation is on the ebb with broad-based softening of core inflation, the repetitive incidence of short amplitude food price pressures deters a swifter fall in headline inflation towards the target of 4 per cent," said the article authored by a team lead by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra.
Duty-free imports of yellow peas may be allowed beyond April
India may extend duty-free yellow peas imports beyond April to curb pulse inflation caused by reduced chana yield. Efforts include controlling food inflation pre-election. Concerns over Madhya Pradesh's yield and high yellow peas imports are highlighted.
Retail inflation for industrial workers eases to 4.59pc in January
Retail inflation for industrial workers in India eased to 4.59 per cent in January, mainly due to lower prices of certain food items. The Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) for January 2024 increased by 0.1 point to 138.9 points from December 2023. The housing group contributed 0.48 percentage points to the total change. The index was largely checked by items like onion, potato, tomato, and ginger.
Food for thought: What the new consumption pattern can mean for inflation
Conducted once in every five years, HCES findings are key to several economic indicators, including the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), poverty levels, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The government, after nearly 11 years, has released the latest numbers for the survey conducted after August 2022 and July 2023.
Retail inflation for farm, rural workers eases marginally in January
Food inflation stood at 9.67 per cent and 9.43 per cent last month as compared to 9.95 per cent and 9.80 per cent in December 2023 and 6.61 per cent and 6.47 per cent in the year-ago period, a labour ministry statement said.
Inflation eases to a 3-month low in January; industrial production picks up in December
Experts point out that moderating inflation coupled with strong growth provides further policy space for RBI to cut rates in the latter half of the year. While a sequential decline in food prices and declining services inflation helped cool overall inflation, food inflation remained a cause of concern at 8.3% in January compared with 9.5% in the previous month.
Japan's December real wages, household spending fall again
Japan's wage trend, along with inflation, is closely watched, with the Bank of Japan regarding both indicators among the key data to consider in preparation for phasing out its massive stimulus policy.
FMCG firms report single-digit volume growth with better margin in December quarter
Companies such as HUL, ITC, Marico, Dabur, and Godrej Consumer Products said urban markets continued their moderate growth, while consumer demand from rural India remained subdued even as they expect an improvement in coming quarters. Moreover, the late arrival of winter also impacted the pickup of relevant products such as lotions, oils and creams. Hindustan Unilever (HUL) reported a muted growth in consolidated net profit at Rs 2,508 crore and its sales were marginally down to Rs 15,259 crore.
Retail inflation for industrial workers eases marginally to 4.91 pc in December
Retail inflation for industrial workers eased to 4.91% in December from 4.98% in November 2023, according to a labour ministry statement. Food inflation stood at 8.18% in December 2023, compared to 7.95% in November 2023 and 4.10% in December 2022. The All-India Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) for December 2023 decreased by 0.3 points to 138.8 points. The decrease in the index was mainly due to lower prices of certain food items.
US inflation trending lower; consumer spending strong in December
US prices rose marginally in December, keeping inflation below 3% for a third straight month. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this year, although the timing is uncertain. Consumer spending surged at the end of 2023, leading to expectations of a rate cut. Financial markets have lowered the odds of a March rate cut, indicating the economy's resilience. The central bank is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged next week.
Wholesale prices accelerate to 9-month high at 0.73% in December
India's wholesale inflation increased to 0.73% in December, as per government data. The number rebounded in November after staying negative for seven months. Inflation for primary articles increased to 5.78%. Fuel and power and manufacturing sector contracted to -2.41% and -0.71% respectively.
Wholesale inflation rises to nine-month high of 0.7% in December
Wholesale inflation in India reached a nine-month high of 0.73% in December, compared to 0.26% in the previous month. However, experts predict that wholesale inflation will remain range-bound around 1% for the rest of the fiscal year due to continued easing in global commodity prices.
India's retail inflation surges to a four-month high of 5.69 per cent in December
India's retail inflation in December rose to 5.69 per cent, compared to 5.55 per cent in November, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation on Friday. This increase remains within the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance range of 2-6 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, the inflation rate contracted by (-)0.32 per cent.
Fed officials say December CPI did not budge view of inflation
Overall consumer price inflation on a 12-month basis rose to 3.4% in December from 3.1% the month before. But excluding volatile food and energy costs the pace of price increases fell to 3.9% from 4%, showing ongoing moderation in underlying price pressures.
US inflation up slightly on food, housing prices
Thursday's report from the Labour Department showed that overall prices rose 0.3% from November and 3.4 % from 12 months earlier. Those gains exceeded the previous 0.1 % monthly rise and the 3.1 % annual inflation in November. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core prices rose just 0.3% month over month, unchanged from November's rise.
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