ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
China waits anxiously for economic plan as gloom reigns
A year and a half after crippling Covid-19 restrictions ended, the property crisis is just one of the deadweights dragging on China's recovery momentum, sending ripples of unease through the country's leaders and citizens.
These largecaps have ‘strong buy’ & ‘buy’ recos and upside potential of more than 23%
A simple question which probably has the most complex answer. Till date which set of stocks have delivered best returns in 2024. Last year the narrative was about mid and small caps having outperformed the large caps. In the first half of 2024, there is no such narrative and no clear answer. There is historical evidence that when this happens in the next six to nine months, it is large caps which tend to perform well. This happens due to high valuation differential in mid and large caps is bound to reduce as mean reversion takes place. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists down quality stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or "strong buy". The screener applies different algorithms for all BSE and NSE stocks.
China's GDP growth dips: Where is its economy headed?
China's GDP growth in the second quarter was 4.7%, below the expected 5.1%. The slowdown raises concerns about economic stability and calls for measures to stimulate growth. IMF projects a gradual slowdown in growth due to various factors including ageing population and property sector crisis. Policy meeting aims to outline strategies for promoting advanced manufacturing and boosting domestic consumption. Structural reforms are suggested to enhance productivity and address economic imbalances.
Pharma sector: Turnaround for good, 6 small and mid cap pharma stocks with upside potential of up to 32%
While it might not have been making it headline, the pharmaceutical sector or commonly called as pharma has come through a tough period due to US FDA and other factors. It has been witnessing a turnaround of sorts which has been slow but more companies are showing improvement in their performance. Also there is a process of re-rating which is quietly going on in the sector. It was large players which got the attention of tend to gain first and then it is smaller and mid sized. If one looks at the corporate announcement about approval of drugs by the US FDA or other drug regulator or any entry into new markets, a number of them are coming from mid and small companies. Given the lesson which the Indian pharma industry has learnt after its reckless approach between 2005 to 2015, there is a high probability that the sector may gain attention.
As violence surges, can Pakistan protect its Chinese projects?
Security measures in Pakistan are being ramped up to protect Chinese workers amidst rising militant violence targeting Chinese-funded projects. Recent attacks have led to casualties and raised concerns about the security of investments. The situation has prompted discussions on balancing security priorities.
Britain’s economy isn’t seeing growth anywhere near India’s 7% GDP rise — this has caused fewer differences between the Conservatives and Labour: Jaideep Prabhu
The UK election landscape is marked by economic uncertainties post-Brexit, minimal policy distinctions between parties, and environmental concerns driving voter engagement. Influential figures like Farage, Johnson, and Sunak shape political narratives, while climate change discussions underscore the urgency for sustainable solutions amidst global warming threats.
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Integrating climate finance into India's economic blueprint
Pradeep S. Mehta, Secretary-General of CUTS International, suggested that India's 2024-25 Budget should include dedicated climate finance institutions through public-private partnerships during a webinar on accelerating private investment in climate finance. Mehta stressed the importance of private sector involvement for a sustainable and resilient future, highlighting the need for collaboration, innovation, and commitment.
PM GatiShakti: Eight infra projects worth ₹13,000 crore evaluated
During the meeting, all projects were evaluated for their integrated planning and conformity with the PM GatiShakti principles. Emphasis was placed on the socio-economic benefits, improved connectivity, reduced transit costs and enhanced efficiency. The railways project, from Manmad to Jalgaon, involved an estimated investment of Rs 2,594 crore. The other project (from Bhusawal to Burhanpur) involve investments of Rs 3,285 crore.
Economic benefits of investing in WASH for corporates
A noteworthy fact in the CSR spends of the past 5 years is the growing emphasis on healthcare, WASH and environment sustainability (JICA Report). This bodes well for achieving India’s net zero goals by 2070.
Dollar calm ahead of inflation test, Fed decision
The dollar steadied after reaching a four-week high against peer currencies as markets awaited key U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve's updated interest rate projections. China's economy showed signs of improvement with steady consumer inflation and narrowing producer price declines.
Asian earnings growth to outpace US and Europe, India's growth momentum strong: Report
The analysis by CLSA, citing Bloomberg's projections, forecasts that Asian earnings growth will surpass that of the US and Europe for both this year and the next. This positive outlook is in line with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) prediction of a robust 7.2 per cent growth rate for India in fiscal year 2025.
Upward GDP projection and no change in interest rates welcomed by industry and economists
Industry leaders and economists widely accepted RBI's monetary policy stand of no change in interest rates. Besides upward projection of GDP growth for FY25 from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent is welcomed by the Industry.
Economists project continued economic momentum and stability after India reports robust GDP growth in Q4
India's economy experienced a 7.8% growth rate in the January-March quarter, surpassing expectations due to strong performance in the manufacturing sector. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter of FY24 was slightly lower than the revised 8.6% growth in the previous quarter. Economists are optimistic about sustained momentum throughout the year, with the gap between GDP and gross value added (GVA) expected to normalize from the second quarter of FY25.
Moody's projects 6.8 per cent GDP expansion in 2024 on strong growth, post-election policy continuity
Moody's Ratings projected India's growth at 6.8% in 2024, followed by 6.5% in 2025. The prediction was driven by economic expansion and post-election policy continuity. The real GDP grew by 7.7% in 2023, with strong government spending and manufacturing activity. High-frequency indicators suggest sustained momentum in the economy. Moody's expects 6-7% annual GDP growth with policy continuity and increased capital expenditure. Private investment outlook is positive, despite inflation volatility.
India seen to emerge as an economic superpower in impending problem-ridden global financial landscape
Global recession risks have diminished, but inflation concerns threaten financial stability. The IMF, World Bank, and rating agencies forecast a slowdown in global growth, citing Middle East conflicts, financial stress, persistent inflation, and reduced international trade as key risks. The IMF's Global Debt Monitor reveals global debt at $235 trillion, or 238% of global GDP, raising fears of a debt crisis. Fiscal prudence may suffer as many nations face elections this year.
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif to visit China next month for formal launch of second phase of CPEC
Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will visit China in the first week of next month to join the formal launching of the second phase of the USD 60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, according to a media report on Saturday. A source in the Prime Minister's Office told the Dawn newspaper that Prime Minister Sharif was scheduled to leave for China on June 4, but the date of the visit could slightly be changed.
Flat stuck in a delayed or stalled real estate project? Six things aggrieved homebuyers can do
Homebuyers stuck in stalled real estate projects face financial strain and uncertainty. They pay EMIs and rent while bearing the loss of opportunity cost. If you have property in a delayed or stalled real estate project, here are some things you can do as a home buyer.
China allocates billions of dollars to bailout its crisis-hit property sector
China has taken decisive measures to tackle the crisis in its property sector, which has been a crucial driver of its economic growth. The People's Bank of China has announced a 300-billion-yuan relending facility to support government-subsidized housing projects. Local state-owned enterprises are encouraged to purchase completed commercial homes to provide affordable housing. Commercial banks have issued significant loans for real estate development and individual housing.
Indian delegation holds talks with key entities in UAE on IMEEC
Indian delegation visits UAE to discuss the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) within 3 months of signing the Framework Agreement. Both sides prioritize cooperation and empowerment for the strategic project aiming at efficient supply routes, cost reduction, job creation, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
UN raises India's 2024 growth forecast to 6.9%
The revision by the UN follows similar moves by other multilateral agencies following India's strong economic performance last fiscal.
UN revises India's 2024 growth forecast to 6.9%
“India’s economy is forecast to expand by 6.9 per cent in 2024 and 6.6 per cent in 2025,29 mainly driven by strong public investment and resilient private consumption,” the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said.
UN upgrades India's 2024 growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.2%
The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2024, released Thursday, said, "India's economy is forecast to expand by 6.9 per cent in 2024 and 6.6 per cent in 2025, mainly driven by strong public investment and resilient private consumption. Although subdued external demand will continue to weigh on merchandise export growth, pharmaceuticals and chemicals exports are expected to expand strongly."
India eyes more Chabahar-like pacts: Ports Minister Sarbananda Sonowal
Sarbananda Sonowal, Union Minister of Ports, Shipping, and Waterways, stated that India aims to replicate the Chabahar port model in other strategic locations in the region to acquire additional assets. In an interview with ET, he emphasized that India is actively investigating opportunities to bolster its maritime presence and trade connectivity.
Russia economy resilient; Gaza war weighs on neighbours: EBRD
The EBRD forecasts Russia's economy to grow by 2.5% in 2024 despite Western sanctions. Israel's war against Hamas will affect neighboring nations. EBRD issued GDP projections and highlighted the impact of the Gaza conflict on Mediterranean countries' economies.
China, Pakistan discuss realignment of Karakoram Highway, speed up CPEC projects
China-Pakistan discussed CPEC projects, Gwadar Port, and KKH realignment. They addressed ML-I upgradation, Dasu Hydropower Project, and security concerns in the region.
India expects long-term arrangement with Iran on Chabahar port: Foreign Minister S Jaishankar
India is poised to establish a "long-term arrangement" with Iran regarding the management of the Chabahar port, according to External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. This move, occurring amidst a busy election season, is seen as a significant geopolitical initiative aimed at enhancing regional connectivity. The port development in Chabahar is crucial for India's plans to facilitate trade with Afghanistan and Central Asian countries while bypassing Pakistan's ports.
India concerned over delay in implementation of pathbreaking IMEC project
Billed as a pathbreaking initiative, the IMEC envisages a vast road, railroad and shipping network among Saudi Arabia, India, the United States and Europe with an aim to ensure integration among Asia, the Middle East and the West.
India woos Bangladesh on Teesta amid China push
India is interested in financing Bangladesh's Teesta economic zone project, a dredging and development project aimed at turning the Teesta river belt into a zone of economic activity. India's interest was expressed during a meeting between Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, foreign minister Hasan Mahmud, and his counterpart Masud Momen in Dhaka.
Charting the global economy: European growth exceeds projections
Euro zone and US show mixed economic signals. Euro zone exits recession with strong GDP growth, while US faces moderating labour demand. Global economy sees fluctuations in factory output and industrial growth amid inflation concerns.
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