EUROPE ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTIES
Asia shares muted on mixed China data, euro pressure
Asian share markets softer on mixed Chinese economic data. European political uncertainty persists. Swiss National Bank may ease. Markets await U.S. retail sales and Fed speeches. French political risks weigh on euro. Gold and oil prices stable.
Global traders flood American markets in search for safety
International investors are flooding American markets with $30 billion in stock funds, mainly targeting US tech shares. The S&P 500 and long-dated Treasuries are outperforming global markets amid economic and political uncertainties.
See policy continuity even with coalition government: Gokul Laroia, CEO, Morgan Stanley Asia
Morgan Stanley's Asia CEO Gokul Laroia discussed Indian elections, markets, and risks with Nishanth Vasudevan before an investor conference.
Millions will vote on Europe's super Sunday, with surveys suggesting a shift to the right
Voters across 20 European nations are casting their ballots in the EU election super Sunday, with concerns over a potential shift to the political right impacting the bloc's decision-making amidst ongoing conflicts and rising anti-migrant sentiment. Populist parties are expected to make gains, potentially reshaping the European Parliament's dynamics. The elections mark a pivotal moment for the EU's future trajectory and international relationships.
Top IT companies focus on employee productivity amid demand uncertainties
Amid revenue deceleration, shrinking margins and lower headcount, a silver lining for the top tier IT exporters is the rising employee productivity aided by streamlining of human resources through meticulous bench management.
ECB cuts rates, keeps next move under wraps
The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in five years, lowering the deposit rate to 3.75%. The move came in response to inflation uncertainty following a slowdown. This move is seen as the start of an easing cycle, but future cuts may be delayed due to price and wage pressures. ECB remains data-dependent and may wait until September for further action. Fed's stance may impact ECB's decisions.
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Asia stocks gain, dollar drifts as inflation tests await
Asian stocks rose for the fourth month, while the dollar drifted lower. Investors await inflation readings from Europe and the U.S. for interest rate guidance.
Workday shares sink over 13% as slower hiring hits payroll services demand
Workday shares dropped on Friday due to a lowered annual subscription revenue forecast amidst economic uncertainty and slower hiring impacting demand for payroll services.
Iran's President dies in helicopter crash. What Baba Vanga had predicted?
Iran is mourning the tragic loss of President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and other officials in a helicopter crash in northwest Iran. While initial reports suggest the crash was accidental, questions of foul play persist, though Israel denies involvement. The event has drawn global attention and speculation about its geopolitical impact, coinciding with reflections on Baba Vanga's predictions for 2024.
Election concerns weigh as only 11 smallcaps post double-digit weekly returns
Both the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices lost over 4% each. In the smallcap pack, 11 stocks rose, with CarTrade Tech leading with 24% returns.
Indian exports up in 115 nations out of 238 destinations in 2023-24
Despite global economic uncertainties, India's exports increased to 115 countries out of 238 destinations in 2023-24. The merchandise exports slightly declined by 3% to USD 437.1 billion, while services exports rose to USD 341.1 billion. Overall exports (goods and services) reached USD 778.2 billion. India's rank in world merchandise exporters improved from 19th to 17th, with a marginal increase in share from 1.70% in 2014 to 1.82% in 2023.
Mumbai and Delhi feature among the World's Top 50 Wealthiest cities, surpassing Washington DC
Mumbai and Delhi have secured positions among the world's top 50 wealthiest cities, surpassing Washington DC in wealth concentration. This ranking, released by Henley and Partners, highlights the economic prowess of these Indian cities and their growing appeal to high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs).
Xi Jinping among pigeons
Fissures have appeared in the ‘coalition of democracies’ to counter China. Beijing has used this opportunity to try and play itself back in Europe. Xi Jinping is currently on his first trip to Europe in five years, visiting France, Serbia and Hungary. He hopes to navigate the most difficult obstruction - the EU itself - in these conversations
India's services exports grow 11.4% in 2023: UNCTAD report
Despite global economic uncertainties, India's services exports surged by 11.4% to $345 billion in 2023, outpacing China, whose shipments from the sector shrank by 10.1% to $381 billion, as per a UNCTAD report. Key sectors driving India's growth include travel, transport, medical, and hospitality services. The world's services exports, exceeding $7.9 trillion in 2023 with an 8.9% annual increase in current dollar value terms, were led by developing economies like India, China, Singapore, Turkiye, Thailand, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. However, India's services imports dipped marginally by 0.4% to $248 billion last year.
Can conflict in West Asia impact the Indian, global economy?
The specter of escalating conflict in West Asia looms over discussions on the global economy. It has ignited concerns among economic policymakers about potential fallout, as per a TOI report.
India’s road logistics network has the potential to be better than Europe’s: Kuehne+Nagel’s Hansjoerg Rodi
Although highly fragmented currently, Kuehne+Nagel’s Hansjoerg Rodi says the country shows enough promise to leapfrog its western counterparts in road logistics.
A $43 billion fund with its high-stakes bets is gambling with Europe’s climate goal
The European Union's Innovation Fund, a 40 billion euros ($43 billion) investment initiative, has experiened early setbacks. These challenges raise concerns about achieving the EU's 2040 climate targets. Despite setbacks, the fund continues to allocate funding to innovative clean technologies, prioritizing investments with potential despite inherent risks.
Charting the global economy: UK, Japan fell into recession at the end of 2023
The euro-area economy is entering 2024 on a weaker footing than previously expected, according to new European Union forecasts that anticipate another year of subdued growth.
View: From Europe to the Pacific, world weighs mounting risk of war
NATO Military Committee Chairman Admiral Robert Bauer emphasizes the need for households to prepare for war, urging the alliance's members to have essentials like water, battery-operated radios, and flashlights. As concerns grow over the risk of conflict in Europe and the Pacific, military leaders from various nations, including the UK, Sweden, and Germany, consider the possibility of reintroducing conscription. Amidst the uncertainties, former President Donald Trump's remarks questioning U.S. commitments add to geopolitical tensions, with experts highlighting the increasing unpredictability in international relations.
Explainer: What does Red Sea disruption mean for Europe's economy?
Weeks of attacks by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in the Red Sea have disrupted shipping in the Suez Canal, which carries 12% of global container traffic. Prolonged disruption poses a new risk to the European economy, potentially derailing plans by central banks to cut interest rates.
German economy shrank in 2023 on energy, export woes
Germany's economy contracted slightly in 2023, with a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, according to preliminary data from Destatis. The country faced challenges such as high energy costs, elevated interest rates, and reduced foreign demand. The economic downturn was primarily attributed to the impact of Russia's war in Ukraine, leading to rising inflation, particularly in energy prices.
TCS, Infosys retain deal momentum amid a challenging scenario
In addition, each of the companies continued to show lower employee attrition and falling headcount which reflects the muted demand outlook in the short term despite fresh deal wins.
Achieving 24x7 electricity supply for all in 2024: India's focus on coal and renewables
India plans to enhance its power infrastructure, aiming for uninterrupted 24x7 electricity by 2024. The Union power ministry proposed a substantial 91 GW addition to coal-based thermal power, investing Rs 7.28 lakh crore. Minister R K Singh emphasised energy security amidst geopolitical uncertainties, citing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Europe.
Rate pauses in view on busy day for central banks in Europe
The Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and Norway's Norges Bank are also holding their last meetings of 2023, a year marked by steep hikes in borrowing costs as policymakers battled to tame runaway consumer prices.
Europe's lurch to the right not ideological
The Dutch far-right Freedom Party, led by Geert Wilders, has become the largest party in the Netherlands' elections. Wilders' potential as Prime Minister depends on his ability to form a coalition. The Netherlands joins a growing list of EU member-states where the far-right is making strides. The shift towards the far-right is a 'greenlash' against climate policies, with Europe's 2019 elections marking the beginning of a new Green-Left era.
Hermes sales beat expectations, defying luxury sector gloom
Analysts have cut their estimates for the luxury sector in recent weeks following a sales report from bellwether LVMH earlier this month showing shoppers are splashing out less on high-end fashion as inflation and economic uncertainty rise.
Midcap Surge: Experts decode India's growth amid global flux
“India is undergoing a structural change as an economy. When India's GDP per capita rises, which I anticipate will happen exponentially, we cannot just limit ourselves to large cap names because there are only about 200-300 of them.”
Tech demand hits a low as clients tighten purse strings amid economic uncertainties
India’s top four IT firms–Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, HCLTech and Wipro–clocked double-digit revenue growth in FY23. Compared with last year, these companies have reduced their revenue growth outlook for FY24 by at least 50%.
Oil prices slide on uncertainty over global economic outlook, rate hikes
Oil prices decreased due to growing concerns about global demand and interest rates, overriding the support from tighter supplies due to the OPEC+ supply cuts. Although China has shown record crude imports in March, its bumpy economic recovery post COVID-19 and weaker refining margins have clouded its oil demand outlook. Moreover, weaker US economic data, disappointing corporate earnings from the tech sector, and stabilising US dollar and climbing bond yields have put pressure on commodity markets. However, analysts remain bullish about the second half of 2023, as China's oil demand recovery is expected to offset the slowdown in OECD demand.
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