FED RATE HIKE PREDICTIONS
Is Wall Street factoring in a rate cut by year-end? Geoff Dennis answers
I think July is a tough call now, although the payroll numbers on Friday will give us another clue on that. But I think they will cut twice before the end of the year, probably in September and December.
Recession looming large on US economy? What growth rate has been predicted by Fed Reserve body? Everything you may like to know
Recessions are fairly common in the US economy. There has been about one U.S. recession every five years or so since World War 2. But they don't last long. The average duration of a U.S. recession since World War II is just 11.1 months.
JGB yields rise as global politics add to pressure from yen
Japanese bond yields surged on expectations of tighter Bank of Japan policy amid a weak yen. Global concerns over French and U.S. elections drove yields higher. Mizuho Securities forecasts continued increase in bond yields with uncertainty surrounding BOJ's tightening plans and potential rate hike at the July meeting.
Commodity Talk: Silver down by Rs 5,000/kg in June. Is it setback to Rs 1 lakh target in 2024?
We do see further corrective moves of upto 2 – 3 % in prices in case US macro cues support the dollar further in near term. However silver is still expected to witness new all time highs this year driven by concerns of 2 rate cuts to persist driving investment demand in white metal.
Incomplete transmission of policy rates could delay reversal of rate cycle by RBI
RBI faces challenges in rate transmission due to incomplete hikes. Banks show varied transmission rates. Governor Das stresses effective transmission. Rate cuts may come post-October with clearer risk insights.
US inflation cools in May, boosting hopes of Fed rate cut
May's stable inflation, influenced by service costs and goods prices, sets the stage for potential Federal Reserve interest rate changes. The report highlights slight consumer spending growth and hints at the Fed's aim for a controlled economic slowdown through core inflation moderation.
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Fed gets heartening inflation data, but slow road ahead
The US Federal Reserve has received encouraging data suggesting inflation is cooling, which has eased concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy. However, the road to the Fed's 2% inflation goal, measured in year-over-year terms, is likely to be long, complicating discussions about when to cut interest rates.
After a 13% rally so far this year, is upside in MCX crude oil futures capped?
European Union's sanctions and China's economic concerns pose challenges for oil demand. Amidst the ongoing rally, uncertainties like a potential ceasefire in Gaza and China's economic health could influence oil prices. Expert projections hint at sustainability hurdles for the current uptrend in crude oil prices.
Big US banks withstand Fed's commercial real estate shock scenario
Amid economic uncertainties, the Federal Reserve's stress tests revealed big U.S. banks' resilience to a 40% drop in commercial real estate values. The tests underscored the challenges faced by regional banks and the need for robust risk assessment in the banking sector.
Gold slips on higher treasury yields, US Fed speakers on tap
Gold prices slipped on Monday due to higher Treasury yields. Investors await US data and comments from Federal Reserve officials for monetary policy cues.
Why the stock market has risen even with no Fed rate cuts
Even without any interest rate cuts so far in 2024 and with the likelihood of just one meager rate reduction by the end of the year -- the stock market has been purring along. That's quite an achievement, given the expectation in January that the Fed would trim rates six or seven times in 2024 -- and that interest rates throughout the economy would be much lower by now.
What is this “bubble of bubbles” burst of the US Stock Markets being predicted?
Economist Harry Dent has predicted a stock market crash calling it the “bubble of bubbles”. This has been described due to the loose monetary and fiscal policies followed by the US.
US consumer inflation falls to 3.3 percent ahead of Fed rate decision
US consumer inflation ticked lower last month, according to US government data published Wednesday, giving the US Federal Reserve positive news shortly before it publishes its latest interest rate decision. The monthly inflation rate was unchanged from a month earlier, which was well below expectations.
Gold price movement: Fed action impact & what history suggests in a falling rate regime?
Gold investors await the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for insights on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut impact. The European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have already reduced policy rates.
India may reduce rates before US Federal Reserve does
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said that the rate-setting panel will look at domestic conditions while taking rate cut decisions and will not be following the Fed. Other central banks are also diverging from the Fed, as the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank cut rates last week.
Asia shares stumble; political uncertainty grips euro
Asian stocks fell as traders reduced bets for Fed rate cuts due to a tight US labor market. A snap election in France raised political concerns, impacting the euro. MSCI's Asia-Pacific shares index also dropped.
US Fed likely to remain on pause and pare back rate cut expectations
The US Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but could pare back the number of cuts it has penciled in for this year, as policymakers digest a mixed bag of economic data. But with the data still painting a mixed picture, he is unlikely to rock the boat too much this week, according to Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet.
JPMorgan, Citi scrap Fed rate-cut bets for July after jobs data
JPMorgan's chief US economist, Michael Feroli, stated in a report on Friday that "the recent momentum in job growth" indicates that the "broader" labor-market weakening, which the Fed mentioned could justify a rate cut, might take more than three months to materialize.
European Central Bank set to cut rates for the first time since 2019 even as inflation fight continues
All 82 economists polled by Reuters expected the ECB to trim its deposit rate to 3.75% on Thursday from a record 4.0%, in what would be its first cut since 2019. ECB policymakers have clearly telegraphed their intention to lower borrowing costs after seeing inflation in the 20 countries that share the euro fall from more than 10% in late 2022 to just above their 2% target in recent months.
Oil rises on strengthening Fed rate cut expectations
Oil prices rose in Asian trading on rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September and a rebound from a selloff linked to growing U.S. inventories and an OPEC+ supply increase.
Turkish inflation exceeds 75% but peak in sight
Turkish inflation jumped above 75 percent in May, official data showed Monday, but officials expect consumer prices to have finally peaked in a cost-of-living crisis that has dogged President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey has been battling soaring consumer prices that prompted Erdogan to drop his opposition to interest-rate hikes to combat inflation.
Not with standing weekly loss, downside in gold likely to remain limited
Going by the action in bonds, the markets are still not giving much credence to the idea of a rate hike. The next week is quite crucial for the financial markets as many major data and reports will be released.
Nifty to hit 26,500 in next 18 months, predicts Emkay Investment Managers
The domestic brokerage expects Nifty earnings growth of 15%. It has suggested investors adopting a multi-cap approach, with equal proposition in largecaps and midcaps, to take advantage of a broad-based growth in Indian equity markets. Here are 5 themes to watch out for as suggested by Emaky.
Fed's Waller sees some progress on inflation, no rate hike needed
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday put a pin in speculation that interest rates may need to rise again, saying the latest inflation data is "reassuring" and the U.S. central bank's policy rate is set appropriately.
Fed's Powell: PPI mixed, next move unlikely to be a rate hike
Though he said "my confidence in that is not as high as it was," given faster than expected inflation through the first three months of the year, the U.S. central bank chief said it remained unlikely in his view that the Fed would have to raise rates any further, even if the prospect for rate cuts has become less certain.
Are US interest rates high enough to beat inflation? The Fed will take its time to find out
The sharp interest rate hikes of the past two years will likely take longer than previously expected to bring down inflation, several Federal Reserve officials have said in recent comments, suggesting there may be few, if any, rate cuts this year.
Fed officials mull whether rates high enough as inflation expectations jump
In an interview with Reuters, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he still thought inflation was likely to slow under the current monetary policy and allow the central bank to begin reducing its policy rate in 2024 - though perhaps by only a quarter of a percentage point and not until the final months of the year.
US stocks rise as Fed rate-hike concerns alleviate
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that stubbornly high inflation would see a long-expected U.S. rate cut pushed back, he refused to entertain talk that rates might actually need to go up again.
Forget any rate cut in 2024! What experts are predicting after Fed meeting
Global stock markets heaved a sigh of relief last night when the world's most powerful central banker Jerome Powell assured investors that it is unlikely for the US Federal Reserve to go for a rate hike. After the Dow Jones ended higher overnight, the Sensex was also up around 200 points this morning.
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