FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET
Yen hits four-week high, intervention questions circulate
The yen surged to a nearly four-week high against the U.S. dollar on Friday amid speculation of Japanese intervention, following data showing eased U.S. consumer prices and moderate producer price increases, which boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
Expect US Fed to cut interest rates in September: Anurag Singh
My sense is that ultimately the 10-year, even by the end of next year, goes till say about 3.5%, that is an attractive number for US investors, but that is not attractive enough for them to really open the floodgates investing into emerging markets.
Rupee ends tad lower after hovering in narrow band; forward premiums slip
The Indian rupee closed slightly lower at 83.52 against the U.S dollar due to importers' bids amid quiet Asian peers.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch record highs as Nvidia gains
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, driven by Nvidia's rise and Powell's rate-cut remarks. Market optimism about AI growth countered Fed rate-cut uncertainty. Major banks saw gains ahead of earnings season. Analysts predict strong Q2 earnings. Tempus AI surged on bullish ratings amidst moderate market activity.
US economy no longer overheated, Fed's Powell tells Congress
Fed Chair Jerome Powell informed Congress that the U.S. job market has cooled from its pandemic extremes, indicating a stronger case for potential interest rate cuts. Powell emphasized the balance of risks the Fed now faces, highlighting recent improvements in inflation and economic conditions. Despite not signaling specific future actions, analysts suggest Powell's remarks hint at a possible rate cut as early as September. The Fed’s policy rate remains at 5.25% to 5.5% since July 2023. Powell’s semiannual Senate testimony will be followed by a House hearing on Wednesday.
RBI to send strict 'zero tolerance' message to banks' bosses
RBI met CFOs and auditors to enforce zero tolerance for compliance lapses. Deputy governors stressed accurate balance sheets, aggressive lending risks, and ever-greening of loans. Recent CEO talks included credit-deposit growth gaps. Governor Das emphasized risk awareness. Digital banking restrictions on Kotak Bank, IIFL Finance, and others were due to regulatory lapses.
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Economic cracks are getting exposed in the 2024 market bounty
Dispiriting trends that have been visible for months now alongside the frenzy for megacap tech stocks and private credit – are on display yet again. Companies with dicey balance sheets have underperformed anew in June. Equal-weighted stock benchmarks where disruptive AI market leaders have the same weighting as industrial bellwethers have lagged yet again.
Financial sector strong but RBI watchful of emerging risks, says RBI Governor Das
RBI's financial stability report underscores the importance of governance, Basel III norms compliance, and maintaining high CET1 ratios for banks. Monitoring GNPA ratios of public, private, and foreign banks essential for financial system stability and resilience.
Expect a return of 12-13% from largecaps in 3-5 years: Sanjay H Parekh
The roadmap for consolidation of fiscal deficit will continue. The banking balance sheets are very strong. The corporate balance sheets because clearly those are also at all-time low on leverage.
Bandhan investors cautious ahead of leadership change
Analysts view the central bank move as administrative in nature to ensure a smooth leadership transition in the Kolkata-based lender, but concerns over Bandhan Bank's asset quality perhaps kept investors anxious.
Federal Reserve is likely to scale back plans for rate cuts because of persistent inflation
The Fed's rate policies typically have a significant impact on the costs of mortgages, auto loans, credit card rates and other forms of consumer and business borrowing. The downgrade in their outlook for rate cuts would mean that such borrowing costs would likely stay higher for longer, a disappointment for potential homebuyers and others.
Govt may increase emphasis on consumption and job creation: Pramod Gubbi
So, we went into the elections quite strongly positioned for a potential adverse event. But it was not because we expected any adverse event. It is just our style of investing. So, to that extent, there has been almost next to nothing in terms of changes that we have made pre or post elections.
Modi 3.0 mandate may be weaker, but Indian economy has a robust growth outlook: Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings has maintained a positive outlook on India's medium-term economic growth, citing substantial government capital expenditure and strengthened corporate and bank balance sheets. The BJP-led NDA is likely to form the next government, and India's strong medium-term growth outlook is expected to remain intact.
Indian economy is on a firm footing: RBI annual report
The Reserve Bank of India's annual report highlights the Indian economy's firm footing, driven by improved external sector sustainability and robust corporate balance sheets. It projects 7% GDP growth for 2024-25, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, production-linked incentive schemes, and an expected above-normal monsoon, despite global uncertainties and challenges.
RBI's balance sheet size is now 2.5x the size of Pakistan's GDP
The Reserve Bank of India's balance sheet grew by 11.08% to Rs 70.48 lakh crore as of March 31, 2024. The RBI's income rose by 17.04%, while expenditure decreased by 56.30%. Consequently, the RBI's surplus increased by 141.23% to Rs 2.11 lakh crore, transferred to the Centre.
Suzlon Energy shares give multibagger returns of 340% in 1 year. Time to ride the next leg of rally?
Suzlon Energy Share Price: Suzlon Energy's shares surge 340% in a year, fueled by strong order inflows and debt-free status. Analysts foresee up to 43% upside potential. Fundamentals improve with debt reduction and cash reserve. Brokerages maintain 'buy' ratings, targeting Rs 54-58.
RBI tells money changers to avoid build-up of idle foreign currency balances
“Data of such sale and purchase should be maintained and made available for audit / inspection,” the RBI said. Central bank norms allow full fledged money changers to obtain their normal business requirements of foreign currency notes from other full fledged money changers and authorised dealers in India.
Gold's march likely to continue, use price corrections to buy
Gold prices have moved up sharply in recent times and outperformed the Nifty 50 over a 5-year period returning 17.39% against the Nifty's return of 15.24%. However, it trailed over a 10-year period returning 9.02%, against the Nifty 50 return of 13.3%. Over last three months, prices rose 19%, while over a year, they rose 22.8%.
RBI likely to transfer Rs 1 lakh crore to govt in FY25
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to transfer around Rs 1 lakh crore to the government in FY25, as per a report by Union Bank of India. This projection reflects a slight increase from the Rs 874 billion transferred in the previous fiscal year. The report anticipates a robust dividend payout for FY25, with analysts predicting a potential positive surprise similar to the previous fiscal year. Despite various factors influencing RBI's dividend calculation, such as interest earnings and foreign exchange gains, analysts foresee strong dividend figures.
Fed holds rates steady, flags 'lack of further progress' on inflation
The Fed's latest policy statement, issued at the end of a two-day meeting, kept key elements of its economic assessment and policy guidance intact, noting that "inflation has eased" over the past year, and framing its discussion of interest rates around the conditions under which borrowing costs can be lowered.
Fed announces reduction in balance sheet runoff pace
The downshift in the pace of the runoff had been widely expected, although market participants weren't sure whether the tapering of the runoff process would happen at this week's FOMC gathering or the one scheduled for June.
Fed to signal delay of interest-rate cuts after higher-than-expected inflation
The Federal Open Market Committee will hold the target range for its benchmark rate at 5.25% to 5.5% — a two-decade high first reached in July — at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting Wednesday. The rate decision, and possibly an announcement on the pace of its balance-sheet reduction program, will be released at 2 p.m. in Washington.
Fed rate-cut debate shifts from 'when' to 'if' on inflation data
Policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady at a more than two-decade high at the conclusion of their meeting Wednesday, so much of the focus will be on any pivot in the tone of the post-meeting statement and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.
AU Small Finance Bank aims to double balance sheet to Rs 2.5 lakh cr in 3 years: MD Sanjay Agarwal
AU Small Finance Bank is set to double its balance sheet size to Rs 2.5 lakh crore in three years, driven by the acquisition of Fincare SFB and the growing consumption trend in India. The bank has operationalized an Authorised Dealer (AD-I) license, foray in forex with 'AU Remit' and cross-border trade with 'AU DigiTrade'. The bank's managing director, Sanjay Agarwal, aims to achieve a 25% growth rate in the next three years and double its balance sheet size to Rs 2.5 lakh crore by the end of its one decade of existence.
Govt's focus on infra development to nurture sustained revival in investment cycle: RBI report
According to the RBI's Monetary Policy Report- April 2024, domestic economic activity, backed by strong fundamentals, remained robust in the first half of 2023-24, weathering challenges from muted global demand.
Fed officials preparing to slow pace of balance sheet runoff
The Fed is currently allowing up to $60 billion per month in Treasury bonds and up to $35 billion per month in mortgage bonds to mature and not be replaced as part of a process called quantitative tightening, or QT.
Even at all time high of $645.6 billion, RBI to continue to accumulate reserves
Central bank continues to build reserves to counter volatility, with India's reserves at $645.6 billion. Governor Das emphasizes the need to create a buffer for future risks. Governor Das, in his monetary policy statement, has said that the external sector is resilient and the latest external vulnerability is eminently manageable. The country’s forex reserves are at 99.6% of outstanding external debt at end-December 2023.
RBI's now become an enabler of the market economy: Governor Shaktikanta Das
"Given the rapid changes taking place in today's world, especially in the areas of technology, innovation, business practices and growing complexities in the financial sector, the Reserve Bank is constantly evaluating the emerging trends and taking necessary policy measures to remain in sync with the evolving situation," Shaktikanta Das said at the RBI's 90th commemoration function on Monday.
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