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Oil prices edge higher as supply risks mount
Oil prices responded to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, with concerns over fuel demand dynamics. The market saw gains in Brent and WTI futures amidst heightened uncertainties, while attention remained on the impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil supply. Anticipation of increased gasoline consumption over the July 4th weekend offered some relief amid persisting demand challenges.
Oil rises on hopes of summer fuel demand
Goldman Sachs analysts expect Brent to rise to $86 a barrel in third quarter, saying in a report that solid summer transport demand will push the oil market into a third-quarter deficit of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd).
Oil slips on dollar's strength from US jobs data
Oil prices slipped on Monday due to a stronger dollar and delayed interest rate cuts following strong U.S. jobs data. Developments in Iraq, including progress in oil export talks with the Kurdistan region, impacted market sentiment.
Reliance faces many hurdles in getting crucial crude delivered as global market struggles
Reliance Industries Ltd., India’s largest private refiner, faces challenges in getting shipments of heavy crude delivered due to sanctions and OPEC+ cuts. To secure needed barrels, it purchased 2 million barrels of Canada’s Access Western Blend crude, embarking on a complex journey involving ship-to-ship transfers and a long voyage to India via the Pacific.
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Golden era for refiners coming? Why Indian companies will make a lot of money
Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki highlights the shifting dynamics in the global refining and energy markets, emphasizing the growth potential in Asia, particularly India, and the geopolitical factors influencing the oil market's stability. He says: "Up to a million barrels per day of Russian refineries are out of commission and this means that Russian exports of refined products have fallen quite dramatically and that has helped the margins. But the key issue is that nobody is building new refineries in the world today. "
Crude price likely to be $90-95 a barrel by end of this year; next year, maybe a little lower at $75-85: Dr Fereidun Fesharaki
Dr Fereidun Fesharaki forecasts continued gasoline sector growth for a decade, with EV impact in 2030s. Oil complex peaks in mid-2030s, then stabilizes. Global demand remains steady by 2045 despite evolving factors like technology and geopolitics. Dr Fesharaki says: "We are looking at $90 to $95 a barrel by the end of this year. And next year, maybe a little bit lower, $75, $85. "
Oil steadies as markets weigh Russian supply woes
Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as investors took a more mixed view toward the loss of Russian refinery capacity after recent Ukrainian attacks while a slightly weaker U.S. dollar offered some support.
The world’s last wave of oil refining bets all about India
India is embarking on a capacity expansion of its oil refineries to meet the country's rising thirst for fossil fuels. The building blitz aims to raise production of traditional transport fuels such as gasoline and diesel, which will increase India's refining capacity by more than 20% over the next five years. This boost comes at a time when the global refining industry is declining in the US and Europe, making India a rare exception. The slower adoption of electric vehicles in India and the country's growing transport demand will keep the appetite for gasoline and diesel higher for longer.
Oil demand growth in India to taper in 2024 after bumper years
Consumption will expand 150,000 barrels a day in 2024, down from about 290,000 barrels a day seen from 2021 to 2023, according to Rystad Energy Head of Oil Trading Mukesh Sahdev. The drop will return growth near the pace seen from 2011 to 2019, he said. The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, sees growth halving to 100,000 barrels a day, as per its November report.
Oil climbs after Russia hints at strengthening output cuts
Brent crude futures rose by 71 cents, or 0.9%, to $78.74 a barrel by 1457 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 69 cents, or 0.9%, to $73.73.
What impact will the Israel-Hamas conflict have on oil? Here's everything explained
Analysts and industry insiders, who had expected a stronger rally, acknowledged that the situation differed from the 1973 oil crisis when Saudi Arabia spearheaded an embargo targeted at nations that had supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War, causing prices to skyrocket.
The world is struggling to make enough diesel
While oil futures are rocketing — on Friday they were just below $95 a barrel in London — the rally pales in comparison with the surge in diesel. US prices jumped above $140 to the highest ever for this time of year on Thursday. Europe’s equivalent soared 60% since summer.
Extreme heat fast becoming a threat to global fuel security
As the world makes its efforts to lessen its dependency on fossil fuels, the rise in weather-driven refinery disruptions focuses on the surging array of challenges. The rising heat has led to refiners slash oil processing by nearly 2% globally in the past two months.
India diesel exports to Singapore set for highs in Aug, drop for Europe -trade
India's diesel exports to Singapore are expected to reach a 19-month high in August due to lower freight costs and low inventories in Singapore. This increase in exports will partially compensate for lower exports from northeast Asia, limiting refining margins in Asia. However, exports to Europe are set to decline to their lowest level this year.
Asia's refiners face profit crunch as Kuwait cuts crude exports
Lower Kuwaiti exports follow cuts from OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia that have pushed Brent prices close to $90 a barrel and left little wriggle room for Asia's refiners, reliant on the Middle East for more than two-thirds of crude imports.
Fuel that powers the global economy is flashing recession signs
Demand for fuel that powers everything from construction equipment to commercial trucking fleets is weakening in many of the world’s largest economies.
India's EV dawn fans expectations fuel demand may peak early
The faster-than-anticipated EV industry growth means India's gasoline consumption will peak sooner than previously thought, some analysts and industry participants say, forcing top oil firms to expedite transition plans to alternative business lines, notably increased petrochemical manufacturing.
Europe rushes to fill up on Russian diesel before ban begins
The European Union will ban Russian oil product imports, on which it relies heavily for its diesel, by Feb. 5. That will follow a ban on Russian crude taking effect in December.
Saudi Aramco to invest in $7 bln petchem project in South Korea
The construction of the complex, to produce up to 3.2 million tonnes per year (tpy) of petrochemicals, will begin in 2023 and be completed by 2026, Aramco said. The chemicals-to-crude unit will have a capacity of 46,000 barrels per day while the capacity of the cracker unit is 1.8 million tpy.
Saudi Aramco to maintain full oil supplies to Asia in Nov despite OPEC+ cuts
The world's top exporter has also kept November crude prices for Asia largely unchanged against expectations of higher prices as it seeks to maintain market share in the region.
Oil jumps more than $4 as OPEC+ weighs biggest output cut since 2020
Brent crude futures were up $4.38, or 5.1%, to $89.52 a barrel by 9:50 a.m. EDT (1350 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $4.79, or 6%, at $84.28.
India's export curbs, tax hike to exacerbate global diesel, petrol shortage
In order to reap record margins, India, the world's No. 3 oil importer, has ramped up imports of cheap Russian oil and increased oil product exports. However, the country announced on July 1 a windfall tax on local oil producers and refiners and imposed new restrictions on export volumes in a bid to increase local supplies to meet rising demand and raise federal revenues.
India forced to ship in petrol, diesel as shortages flare up
The rare uptick has been driven by a need to cover local shortfalls even as India has emerged as a top buyer of shunned Russian crude following the invasion of Ukraine, and its refiners go all out to produce fuels. Elevated international product prices have prompted India’s private refiners to boost exports, creating a shortage that state processors are now rushing to address with extra imports.
Crude price to go over $100 if deal with Iran not reached in 3 weeks: Fereidun Fesharaki
“If we do not have a deal with Iran in the next three weeks, the prices will be well ahead of $100 a barrel because Opec does not have enough capacity to produce 400,000 barrels per day. The new normal will be between $70 and $80 a barrel after 2025. Before 2025, the new normal is somewhere in the range of $85 to $95 a barrel. It all depends on what happens in negotiations with Iran. If the Iranian deal is made, prices could dip $5-10 a barrel.”
India's gasoline demand seen hitting record as COVID curbs ease
Shunning trains, buses and planes, safety-conscious Indians are buying more cars and increasingly using personal vehicles to commute as they embark on 'revenge travel' - flocking to tourist destinations after months of restrictions, despite record high fuel prices.
Oil falls on India's COVID surge, supply increase
"The market is tending to focus more on the bad news from India and Japan at present, where the number of new coronavirus cases has risen sharply, prompting increased mobility restrictions to be imposed," said Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg.
Expect oil prices to be around $70 in next few months: Jeff Brown, FGE Group
It all boils down to the sanctions and how much the US wants to push Iran, says Brown.
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