FISCAL DEFICITS
Union Budget 2024 may test Modi govt’s fiscal prudence as it attempts to fulfil Lok Sabha manifesto promises
Budget 2024: Modi is back in power with a stronger reliance on the NDA coalition, and FM Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to maintain fiscal prudence. The Centre has a target of bringing down India's fiscal deficit for FY25 to 5.1% of GDP, which experts see as an encouraging indicator for 'Bharat's' growth story. Sitharaman said that the government would stick to numbers provided in the interim budget numbers if voted to power.
Crude prices to average at $83-88 in FY25, may increase govt fiscal burden: CRISIL
Crisil reports average crude oil prices are expected to rise to $83-$88 per barrel in fiscal 2025 from $83 in the previous year. This increase may strain India’s fiscal budget, given its reliance on crude imports. The report also projects India's real GDP growth at 6.8% for FY 2024-25 and anticipates a softened consumer price inflation at 4.5%. Despite challenges, a positive rural economic outlook is forecasted, buoyed by an expected above-normal monsoon.
Economists seek lower import tariffs at pre-budget meeting with PM Modi
In a pre-budget meeting in New Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with economists who recommended reducing import tariffs on intermediate goods, lowering interest rates, signing more free trade deals, and cutting logistics costs to boost exports. They advocated for agricultural support for farmer producer organizations (FPOs) and emphasized capital expenditure for growth, cautioning about rural inflation.
Budget 2024: Economic vision of new govt, political theme key aspects to watch in budget, says Nomura
Nomura, a Japanese brokerage, highlighted key aspects to watch in India's upcoming Union budget, emphasizing the new government's economic vision and its management of political dynamics. The brokerage anticipates "muted returns" in the second half of the year for equities, maintaining a year-end Nifty target of 24,860 points, slightly above current levels. They underscored the importance of fiscal discipline beyond FY26, when the government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.6%.
Union Budget 2024 may see Modi government fasttracking reforms to focus on unfinished agenda from previous term
Budget 2024: Market experts predict Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term will prioritize unfinished reforms from his previous tenure. The Union Budget 2024-25 is expected to focus on boosting income opportunities, rationalizing taxes, driving the capex cycle, and supporting self-dependency through import substitution. Fiscal consolidation remains a key objective, targeting a deficit reduction to below 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26.
India's high public debt offers limited space for welfare spending: Report
A recent report by Goldman Sachs highlighted India's constrained fiscal space due to high public debt, suggesting limited room for stimulus measures. The report anticipates Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to adhere to fiscal consolidation targets in the upcoming budget, possibly focusing on welfare spending over capital expenditure.
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Budget 2024: SBI wants Modi 3.0 to not obsess too much over fiscal stance
Budget expectations: The upcoming full Budget for 2024-25 under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government aims for fiscal prudence with a focus on a fiscal deficit target of 4.9%. SBI Research recommends not being overly fixated on this goal. The government aims to reduce fiscal deficit below 4.5% of GDP for 2025-26, with robust growth in revenues contributing to this strategy. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's sixth budget speech, scheduled for July 23, will mark a significant milestone, setting the financial course for Modi's third term.
Will Budget 2024 pivot to populism? Here’s what Goldman Sachs analysts predict
Amid investor concerns over potential fiscal policy shifts towards welfare spending, Goldman Sachs holds a contrary view, citing limited fiscal room due to high public debt. They emphasize India's infrastructure improvements, suggesting policymakers may prioritize sustained growth over short-term boosts.
Union Budget 2024 will likely focus on women, middle-class and agri sector
BUDGET EXPECTATIONS: Narendra Modi's third-term Budget, slated for July 23, focuses on leveraging revenue growth and RBI dividends for infrastructure and targeted sectors. The session will also introduce non-legislative reforms. The Economic Survey will precede, highlighting achievements and future plans. Sitharaman aims to tackle inflation, unemployment, and regional disparities with tax measures and social benefits, aiming for a fiscal deficit of 4.5% amid robust GDP projections.
Budget 2024: Top three moves that NDA govt must consider for employment generation
Budget 2024: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to present the Union Budget on July 23 in Lok Sabha, kicking off the parliamentary session running from July 22 to August 22. The upcoming budget under the NDA government is anticipated to prioritize sustaining economic growth, promoting job creation, and adhering to fiscal deficit targets.
Modi’s top coalition ally Chandrababu Naidu seeks more than Rs 1 lakh crore handout
Key allies in Modi's coalition government, N Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, are seeking substantial financial support for their states. The demands include funds for building a new capital and infrastructure projects. This puts pressure on the national budget and raises concerns about increasing debt.
Can Modi government stick to interim numbers in upcoming Budget 2024? Here's what Sitharaman had to say
UNION BUDGET: Before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had indicated that the BJP-led NDA government would adhere to the fiscal measures outlined in the Interim Budget, emphasizing fiscal prudence and continued capital expenditure. Re-elected for a third term, the Modi government’s budgetary focus includes a significant boost to infrastructure and renewable energy initiatives.
India's rating upgrade possible in next 24 months if fiscal deficit falls to 4%: S&P
India could receive a sovereign rating upgrade in the next 24 months if the central government manages its finances prudently and reduces the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP. The trigger for the upgrade would be a general government deficit falling below 7% of the GDP, with a significant portion driven by the central government. The central government estimates a fiscal deficit of 5.1% of GDP in the current fiscal, down from 5.63% in 2023-24.
Financials & utilities are the cheapest sectors; IT overpriced: Neelkanth Mishra
Neelkanth Mishra highlights undervalued financial and utility sectors compared to the overpriced IT sector. The Budget is expected to focus on rural support and fiscal prudence, with emphasis on Viksit Bharat 2047 initiatives. However, GDP growth may slow down, impacting FMCG sector earnings. Mishra expects consumption by the lower income households will grow slower than the GDP on average,
Budget Glossary: Key terms to know before Nirmala Sitharaman presents Budget
According to Article 112 of the Indian Constitution, the Union Budget of a year, also referred to as the annual financial statement, is a statement of the estimated receipts and expenditure of the government for that particular year. Union Budget keeps the account of the government's finances for the fiscal year that runs from 1st April to 31st March. Union Budget is classified into Revenue Budget and Capital Budget.
Budget 2024: Will Sitharaman stick to fiscal prudence this time around? All you need to know about India’s fiscal deficit
Fiscal Deficit of India 2023-24 | Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's 2024 Budget, scheduled for July, aims to navigate India's fiscal deficit amidst varied economic priorities and coalition dynamics. With fiscal discipline crucial, the Modi 3.0 government seeks to balance capital expenditure initiatives with rural, healthcare, and educational needs while aiming to achieve a fiscal deficit target of 5.2% and eventually 4.5% by 2025-26 | Union Budget 2024
West Bengal Governor CV Ananda Bose warns of state's financial breakdown
In the midst of financial turmoil, the West Bengal Governor faces allegations of sexual assault, further complicating the state's already dire fiscal situation.
Confident of over $800 billion exports in goods, services this fiscal, says Piyush Goyal
India recorded a current account surplus of USD 5.7 billion or 0.6 per cent of GDP in the March quarter. This is the first time in ten quarters that the crucial metric of the country's external strength has turned into surplus mode. In the year-ago period, the current account deficit stood at USD 1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP, and the same was USD 8.7 billion or 1 per cent of GDP in the preceding quarter ending December 2023.
Fiscal deficit in April-May at 3% of annual target
The official data revealed the fiscal deficit reduced significantly between April and May, indicating financial improvement. Analysts foresee a faster fiscal consolidation than expected, with potential to enhance expenditure. Aditi Nayar from ICRA highlighted the positive revenue trend, showcasing opportunities for economic growth and sustainability.
Pakistan's National Assembly passes Rs 18,877 billion budget for fiscal 2024-25
The budget, facing opposition, sets growth targets and tax revenue goals while addressing concerns about IMF loans and tax exemptions to aid economic growth.
Fiscal deficit hits 3% of full FY25 target in April-May at Rs 50,615 crore
India's fiscal deficit for April-May reached approximately 3% of FY25's target, totaling Rs 50,615 crore. PM Narendra Modi's third term priorities include tackling agricultural distress, job creation, sustaining capital expenditure, and enhancing revenue growth for fiscal consolidation. S&P upgraded India's sovereign rating outlook to positive, contingent on fiscal discipline
Govt's gross liabilities rise by 3.4 pc to Rs 171.78 lakh crore at March-end: Finance Ministry
Government's total gross liabilities rose to Rs 171.78 lakh crore by March 2024 from Rs 166.14 lakh crore in December. Public debt, at 90.2% of total, saw a 3.4% increase in Q4 2023-24. Indian bond yields softened due to fiscal adjustments, while US treasury yields were volatile. Ownership patterns of securities shifted.
Union Budget 2024: Here is how revenue, fiscal and primary deficit impacts the Indian economy
Union Budget 2024: A revenue deficit arises when a government's day-to-day expenses surpass its total revenue receipts, necessitating borrowing, divestments, or adjustments in taxes to bridge the shortfall. In contrast, a fiscal deficit occurs when government expenditure exceeds its total receipts, influencing aspects like economic growth, price stability, production costs, and inflation.
Nirmala Sitharaman: Feisty defender of Modi govt to filling big shoes
As a staunch defender of the Modi government's economic policies and executor, Nirmala Sitharaman created a record when she was appointed as the first female Raksha Mantri, or Defence Minister, in 2017. Prior to that, she was industry and commerce minister.
India's medium-term fiscal consolidation likely to get more challenging, Fitch says
India's medium-term fiscal consolidation faces challenges with a new coalition government coming to power, potentially impacting a ratings upgrade, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP fell short of a majority. Fitch Ratings analyst Jeremy Zook expects the government to aim for a 4.5% fiscal deficit by 2025-26, but uncertainty looms beyond. The central bank's surplus transfer aids fiscal goals, but a coalition government may complicate consolidation efforts.
Expect broad policy continuity with focus on capex: Ratings agencies
Economists emphasize the new Indian government's need to focus on growth, job creation, fiscal stability, tax reforms, and risk management. Reforms in land, labor, and capital markets are crucial, along with fiscal consolidation and increased government spending to attract private investments. They suggest balancing pro-consumer policies in agriculture and tackling judicial delays. These efforts aim to sustainably boost job creation and income levels, with the potential to raise India's economic growth to 7.5-8% over the medium-to-long term.
A weaker Modi government will slow India's fiscal tightening, Moody's says
Indian PM Modi's narrower election victory limits aggressive fiscal reforms, per Moody's analyst Christian de Guzman. BJP secured 240 seats, with NDA totaling 293. Despite this, fiscal consolidation will persist, but populist spending risks increase. India's fiscal deficit target is 4.5% by 2025/26. Bond yields surged post-election, and Moody's sees stable economic prospects.
Modi govt's fiscal consolidation pace post-Covid worse than peers? Moody's report flags weaker fiscal, debt metrics
Moody's rating agency has pointed out that India's fiscal consolidation following the Covid-19 pandemic has lagged behind when compared to its peers. This includes several emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region.
New govt may cut FY25 fiscal deficit target amid robust growth and windfall RBI dividend
In the interim budget in February, the government had set the FY25 fiscal deficit goal at 5.1% of GDP and revised the FY24 target to 5.8%. However, the actual fiscal gap for FY24 was contained at 5.6%. With exit polls projecting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to retain power with a strong majority, policy continuity is expected, and the government may aim to further improve the fiscal deficit target for the upcoming fiscal year starting April 1, 2025.
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