FMCG DEMAND
Business first, stock second: 5 largecap stocks where management & business are better placed with an upside potential of upto 23%
What does a hospital, chemical or rather specialty gas supplier, FMCG, and real estate company have in common? Surely not the product. What binds them is the ability of management which has been tested in tough times. Another common factor, business is such that returns on investment are higher and are also consistent. The reason why these things become important at this point of time is the fact that in bull markets, there is no dearth of explanation and narrative, when putting money one has to look at one reason which becomes the focal point to avoid panic when there is correction. So, if the management and business are good then corrections will come and go and in the long term higher return would compensate for the patience which one shows in the times of correction.
Dabur sees improvement in demand, rural growth in Q1
The domestic business is expected to record mid-single-digit volume growth and its consolidated revenue is expected to register mid-to-high single-digit growth during Q1 FY25, said Dabur, which owns brands such as Dabur Chyawanprash, Dabur Honey, Dabur PudinHara, Dabur Lal Tail, Dabur Amla, Dabur Red Paste, Real and Vatika.
India's FMCG sector to see revenue growth of 7-9 pc in fiscal 2024: CRISIL
CRISIL forecasts 7-9% revenue growth for the FMCG sector in the current fiscal year, driven by increased volume and rural demand recovery. The report highlights stable product prices in personal care and home care, while food and beverages face modest raw material cost increases. Rural growth is bolstered by better monsoons and government initiatives, while urban demand remains robust due to rising incomes and premium product preferences
FMCG Q1 check: Some hot, some not
Scorching summer heat and elections created a mixed quarter for consumer goods, with sales of cooling products like beverages, ice creams, talcum powder, and sunscreens rising up to 15 per cent amidst the heatwave. However, impulse snacks and single-serve beverages saw a decline due to reduced out-of-home consumption. Election restrictions impacted alcohol sales, while delayed monsoon affected insecticide sales. Last-mile servicing challenges were reported, particularly in rural areas due to the heat.
Rise in value-seeking customers, key FMCG sectors face tampering of growth: Report
The report highlighted a significant shift in consumer spending patterns with a rise in value-seeking buyers, which is evident across consumer businesses. While the consumer may increase their spending on leisure activities, suggesting a good performance for the aviation and hotel industries in FY2024-25, it added.
Green shoots seen in rural demand: Wipro Consumer CEO
Vineet Agrawal, CEO of Wipro Consumer Care and Lighting, noted positive signs of growth in rural demand and anticipates a recovery in the hinterland by September, supported by favorable monsoon conditions and a successful harvest. Furthermore, he suggests that stable government policies could potentially boost sales of discretionary products through continuity and consistency.
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PM Modi shows rural bent, OKs ₹20kcr for PM Kisan Nidhi Scheme
The Prime Minister approved the 17th instalment of the PM Kisan Nidhi Scheme, benefiting 93 million farmers with around ₹20,000 crore. This move is seen as a boost to rural demand and consumer stocks. The new coalition government is expected to focus more on rural welfare, signaling a shift towards consumption-focused policies. Rural markets have shown growth, outpacing urban markets for the first time in five quarters, indicating a positive trend for the FMCG sector. The PM emphasized the government's commitment to farmer welfare and agriculture.
Modi 3.0: FMCG companies can cheer the new coalition government
In a symbolic move, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first action after being sworn in for a third term was releasing the 17th PM-KISAN installment, providing financial relief to 9.3 crore farmers. With a weaker mandate, the government is expected to focus on rural welfare, potentially boosting FMCG sector growth and consumption.
Nifty 50 could scale new peak this week, believes Rajesh Palviya
There was uncertainty when the counting was happening. So, most of the bags moved to the defensive sector and in the defensive sector FMCG, pharma, these two pockets were majorly focused by the market participants.
After a 5% rally in 2 days, ITC earns a downgrade. Here's why
Emkay Global downgraded ITC to 'add' at Rs 460 citing near-term pressures like margin stress. Analysts' recommendations from Trendlyne data show 31 buy, 2 hold, and 1 sell. ITC shares yielded negative returns recently.
Rural demand theme blooms
Investor money is shifting to defensive shares like FMCG, healthcare, and information technology following the lower-than-anticipated seats for the BJP in recent elections. Marico, Godrej Consumer, Nestle India, ITC, Britannia, HUL, and Dabur saw significant gains. The Nifty and NSE FMCG Index also rose.
White collar hiring improving as demand from Oil & Gas, Banking, FMCG sectors rises: Report
White collar hiring in major sectors like Oil and Gas, Banking, and FMCG showed steady improvement, with a 6% increase in May compared to April, driven by Healthcare and Travel and Hospitality. However, overall white-collar hiring was down by 2 per cent year-on-year, with declines in IT, BPO, and Education sectors. Smaller cities outperformed major metropolitan areas, with strong demand for senior professionals contributing to a healthy growth in opportunities.
In Focus: Scrips that like a cloud on the horizon
Companies such as Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Britannia, Dabur, Hero Motocorp, Westlife Foodworld, Shoppers Stop and others have already indicated in their commentary a gradual demand recovery if the monsoon forecast turns out to be accurate.
Sudip Bandyopadhyay on strategies to navigate Nifty's pre-election volatility
Financial expert Sudip Bandyopadhyay provided insights into the current market trends and future expectations. He emphasized that market volatility will persist until the election results are announced on June 4th, but he remains optimistic about the market's upward trajectory post-election. He talked about the strong performance of Nifty Metal, attributing it to global factors like potential US Fed interest rate cuts and China's fiscal stimulus. He also discussed the positive outlook for the FMCG sector due to expected improvements in rural demand, driven by a favorable monsoon forecast.
Consumption demand remained subdued in Q4, rural India recovered after several quarters: ITC
FMCG major ITC notes subdued Q4 consumption but rural demand recovery. Q4 profit below estimates at Rs 5,190 crore; revenue up 2% to Rs 19,446.5 crore. Cigarette revenue rises 7.7%, FMCG (excluding cigarettes) up 7.2%, impacted by low priced Chinese supplies and trade restrictions on agri commodities affecting agri business segment.
FMCG demand most in five southern states: Discretionary or essential, sales go north in south
South India leads post-Covid demand recovery with increased FMCG sales, higher consumer spending, and more shopping trips in 2023, a Kantar report shows. Retail sales growth in the peninsula region outperforms the rest of India. The region's rapid recovery is fueled by a young workforce, new-age sectors, and robust manufacturing investment.
A heavy monsoon season is great news for these Indian stocks
Stocks of Indian firms reliant on rural demand are rising with optimistic monsoon forecasts. Motorcycle, farm-equipment, and FMCG companies are seeing improved sales in rural areas. Nifty FMCG Index is up, Hindustan Unilever and Dabur India expect demand growth.
Roosevelt Dsouza of Nielssen on whether the trend of rural India catching up in FMCG demand is durable
Roosevelt Dsouza of NielsenIQ discusses FMCG trends, emphasizing rural-urban gap. Growth driven by small pack preferences and personal care in rural areas. CEOs review Nielsen report. India awaits rural recovery. Consumer behavior shifts to volume growth. Categories perform differently. Dsouza says there are certain categories where one can see K-shaped growth with some categories moving up and some going down.
FMCG companies to see muted demand in June quarter, recovery likely in H2
Overall volumes, which indicate the number of products consumers bought, expanded 5.2% in the March quarter, unchanged from the three months to December. Sales volumes in rural markets climbed 5.8%, and in cities by 4.7%, from a year earlier, data from Kantar showed. Kantar monitors branded and unorganised products, including unpackaged voluminous commodities. Nielsen, on the other hand, tracks primarily branded retail sales.
All group businesses going through transformation over next couple of years: Shashwat Goenka, RPSG Group
Shashwat Goenka envisions significant growth and transformation across diverse sectors within the RPSG Group. The strategic focus includes retail expansion, innovative health food offerings, client-centric BPO services, and a transition to greener energy sources for sustainable growth.
Thinking to bet on FMCG? Look at these sectors instead, says Ajay Bagga
“The resurgence in certain sectors remains uncertain—possibly defensive moves rather than re-rating. Monsoon's impact, expected by October, will clarify. Domestic cyclicals like auto, infra, and financials seem preferable to FMCG, though valuation and monsoon effects will drive investor behavior.”
What should investors do with FMCG stocks? Dipan Mehta answers
I think a 10-12% correction in the Nifty where it tests the 200-day moving average is a good entry point. Whether that actually happens, I do not know and I cannot even tell you what the triggers could be apart from aside of slightly disappointing election result.
FMCG, auto companies break the jinx as rural growth rises above urban
Rural FMCG demand outpaced urban markets in Jan-Mar 2024. Car companies reported higher rural sales. NielsenIQ noted 7.6% rural growth. Factors include robust rabi crop and government measures. Maruti Suzuki saw record rural sales.
White-collar hiring falls 3% in April, shows Naukri JobSpeak Index
Despite a 3% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month decline in white-collar hiring, various sectors experienced job growth. Notably, demand surged for specific roles like drilling engineers, brand managers, and IT professionals in different cities.
Rural FMCG sales outgrew urban for the first time in 5 quarters in Q1: NielsenIQ
In the January-March ’24 quarter, rural markets surpassed urban consumption for packaged consumer goods for the first time in five quarters, with rural growth at 7.6% while urban demand declined by 5.7%. Overall FMCG sector value grew by 6.6% driven by consumption, with flat price growth at 0.1%. NielsenIQ highlighted the growth in the FMCG industry being driven by consumption trends, with rural areas leading the growth. By volume, the sector grew by 6.5% nationally, with non-food sector sales growing at 11% compared to 4.8% for food. Home and personal care categories outperformed food categories, with larger pack sizes driving growth.
Here's why Anshul Saigal is bullish on manufacturing stocks
Now, we are in a phase today where we are close to, of course, election, markets have rallied before. So, clearly one has to be cautious but this is not a time to be sitting on cash because we really do not know what the event is going to throw up.
Should investors be contra buyers in IT? Rajeev Thakkar answers
In each bull market, there will be pockets of exuberance, but there will be some other pockets which will be out of favour and that is where we tend to look for opportunities.
Record-breaking election spending set to ignite rural demand, feel experts
Anticipation is high for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls with record-breaking expenditure projected. Industry experts foresee a boost in rural spending post-election, influencing the FMCG sector positively. Various factors are expected to drive economic growth in rural India.
HUL, Tata Consumer and Nestle India's margins gain on premiumisation, cost cuts
While volume growth was tepid to modest for the three companies, gross margins have expanded. Margin expansion has been achieved through better operational efficiency or productivity gains. Taking price rises, lowering ad spends and rationalising costs are the various levers used.
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