GEOPOLITICAL REASONS
The Dalai Lama may soon reveal his succession plan, and it’ll have geopolitical ramifications
What if the next Dalai Lama is found among Tibetan immigrants living in a place China does not control? That would give an entirely new twist to the Tibetan movement, causing political problems for the Chinese leadership
Global sea transport leaps most since 2010 after Red Sea attacks
Global sea transport sees a surge in activity due to geopolitical disruptions and attacks in the Red Sea. Vessels reroute to avoid conflict zones, impacting carbon emissions.
Central banks around the world have positive outlook on gold, according to World Gold Council survey
The WGC survey received responses from a record-high 70 central banks. The survey shows that Central bank sentiment towards gold remains very high, with 29 per cent saying they will add more gold in the next 12 months and 81 per cent saying that official sector gold reserves overall will grow in the same period. Optimism towards gold’s future role in global reserves continues to grow, with 69% saying that gold’s share of reserves will be higher in five years compared to 62% last year, the WGC survey said.
Dollar or other currencies? How the US is daring the world to find a dollar alternative
The United States is challenging its own foundations as the world's reserve currency with attacks on the legal system following Donald Trump's conviction. Despite growing consternation, no credible alternative has emerged. The dollar's dominance stems from U.S. democratic principles, but threats loom as sanctions and political turmoil test its credibility.
Golden era for shipping seen ahead as geopolitics boosts pricing
Shipping industry in Athens anticipates higher earnings amidst geopolitical conflicts and supply uncertainties.
The world's now oysterer: Why a coalition govt will likely add to India’s geopolitical heft, not reduce it
The Modi government has already set out to tweak its image. In his first address to NDA members on June 7, the PM said his government believed in the philosophy of 'Sarva Panth Sambhava' (all religions are equal)'. At the diplomatic level, the image of a friendly and more accommodating government would help win many more friends.
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Charting the Global Economy: ECB cuts rates, US payrolls surge
The collapse of Modi’s support in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most-populous state and a one-time party stronghold, amounted to a collective rebellion from millions of people left behind in one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
View: Whichever way you cut it, the economy’s booming and is a welcome gift for the incoming government
The Indian economy is booming with a GDP growth of 8.2% for 2023-24, surpassing estimates. The National Statistics Office data highlights this growth despite challenges in sectors like manufacturing and agriculture.
Chinese firms turn from ‘Panda’ to ‘Skunk’ as US tensions flare
Chinese investments in the US have trailed behind smaller economies like Spain and Singapore in recent years, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
ET Explains: Why RBI keeps gold abroad?
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been aggressively buying gold this year, purchasing one and a half times the amount bought in the whole of 2023 in just the first four months of this calendar year. A big portion of this gold is held overseas, but the RBI is now planning to bring back a portion of these reserves. This move comes amid risks following the West freezing Russian assets. The RBI holds 822.10 metric tonnes of gold, with 387.26 metric tonnes kept in safe custody with the Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
Gold's march likely to continue, use price corrections to buy
Gold prices have moved up sharply in recent times and outperformed the Nifty 50 over a 5-year period returning 17.39% against the Nifty's return of 15.24%. However, it trailed over a 10-year period returning 9.02%, against the Nifty 50 return of 13.3%. Over last three months, prices rose 19%, while over a year, they rose 22.8%.
Singapore and Kazakhstan plan Eurasia to ASEAN trade & transit corridor
Singapore and Kazakhstan strengthen economic ties, enhancing India's role as a link between Southeast Asia and Eurasia. Kazakhstan's transport initiatives and Singapore's expertise create new business opportunities. The countries sign agreements to boost trade and investment, with Singapore investing in Kazakhstan's economy. Cooperation focuses on innovation and digitalization for mutual benefit.
RBI buys 1.5 times more gold in January-April than whole of 2023
The Reserve Bank held 827. 69 tonnes worth of gold as a part of its foreign exchange reserves as of April 26,2024, up from 805 tonnes as of end December according to the latest Reserve bank of India data.
Storm brewing, vital to have safe pair of hands to take India through: Jaishankar
Amidst the backdrop of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, as well as other geopolitical tensions, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar stated on Monday that a "storm" is looming and is expected to escalate. He emphasized the crucial need for a steady and reliable leadership to navigate India through this challenging period. These remarks were made during an interaction at a school in Delhi organized by the Delhi Tamil Education Association, just days before the upcoming Lok Sabha election.
Singapore slings into a Wong future
Lawrence Wong, Singapore's new prime minister, faces challenges from China-US decoupling, navigating inherited strengths and emerging issues. Managing the island nation's growth amidst geopolitical shifts and economic pressures requires strategic decisions and adaptation to maintain Singapore's competitive edge.
Defence stocks: Stay bullish, just hedge a bit to avoid narrative-based decisions; 4 stocks with upside potential of up to 33%
One of the sectors which has seen strongest re-rating in the last four years has been defence. Now in the last few days, the way markets have corrected and a narrative has come on the street that it is poll jitters which is making FPI sell, without realizing the fact that after a strong phase of upward movement, the global money tends to move in one from one country to another, especially in emerging market segment, it might lead to a situation where one might end up selling the long term winner early because of the narrative. Rather than getting jittery, it would be better to create a hedge and stay with the stocks where there has been a big change in the fundamental ways things operate.
Neo-Orientalism and its discontents
The multipolar world that India advocates isn't the 19th-century version of ceaseless geopolitical competition, but one in which countries like itself are not just seen but also heard.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Good chance of heading towards 80,000 on Sensex in 6 months: Dimplekumar Shah
Dimplekumar Shah foresees Sensex hitting 80,000. Market faces volatility due to geopolitical concerns. Strong GDP and earnings growth expected. Global inflation affects rate trajectory. BJP manifesto impacts sectors. Equity culture on the rise. Shah further says: "Technically speaking, May has been a positive month 7 out of 10 times in the last decade. However, the derivatives market is suggesting a range bound setup as of now."
Cribbing or happy about gold’s record-breaking rally? China is front and center of gold price surge
Gold has surged to record highs above $2,400 an ounce in 2024, with China at the forefront of the remarkable ascent. Geopolitical tensions and lower US interest rates have bolstered gold's appeal as an investment. Chinese demand, spanning retail shoppers to the central bank, continues to drive the rally.
Risk-addicted Wall Street funds are shaken as bad news piles up
Jerome Powell navigates monetary pivot amidst inflation decline. Geopolitical tensions challenge high stock, credit exposures. Israel-Iran strife impacts S&P 500. Goldman, Barclays revise rate-cut bets. Risk allocation analyzed. Northwestern Mutual adjusts stock exposure.
No justifications for gold's recent rally, investors riding on Fed rate cut hope
Gold closed at a record high of $2330 amidst escalating Middle East tensions, positive US economic data, and hints of potential rate cuts by the Fed Chair. Geopolitical tensions and economic indicators will continue to drive market sentiment. . Hotter than expected CPI inflation and contained geopolitical tensions will weigh on the metal. Resistance is at $2360/$2400 and support at $2300/$2250/$2200. A short term correction won't be surprising.
Golden era for refiners coming? Why Indian companies will make a lot of money
Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki highlights the shifting dynamics in the global refining and energy markets, emphasizing the growth potential in Asia, particularly India, and the geopolitical factors influencing the oil market's stability. He says: "Up to a million barrels per day of Russian refineries are out of commission and this means that Russian exports of refined products have fallen quite dramatically and that has helped the margins. But the key issue is that nobody is building new refineries in the world today. "
India Playbook 2024 – the India defence equity market story
Indian defence sector stocks excel globally, benefiting from geopolitical risk, domestic manufacturers' rise, and strong order books. The sector shows resilience amidst global market fluctuations and government's increased defense expenditure, positioning for sustainable growth. India's aerospace industry has many legs of growth and Hindustan Aeronautics is the key player in the space.
Charting the global economy: India’s inflation changed little in Feb, US takes a closer look at China shipbuilding subsidies
The world of geopolitics continued to evolve, including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, declining foreign investment in China and US concerns about Beijing’s subsidies for shipbuilders.
Why 2024 could be a good year for the Indian bond market: Rahul Bhuskute explains
While the turbulence in the global economy may have subsided, we are far from normality. For the bond markets in particular, the last three years have been challenging.
China moved military forces in disregard of agreements: Jaishankar on border row in eastern Ladakh
India and China's rise is changing the world order, impacting the global geopolitical scenario. The relations between the two countries have faced disruptions due to China's military build-up. Efforts have been made to maintain equilibrium, but building infrastructure and protecting interests are crucial in this evolving relationship.
Russia is a power with enormous tradition of statecraft: S Jaishankar
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar discussed Russia's evolving geopolitical stance, noting its shift towards Asia and non-Western nations. He emphasized the need to engage Russia with multiple options instead of restricting it to a single relationship. Jaishankar highlighted the West's role in pushing Russia towards closer ties with China and stressed the importance of other Asian countries engaging with Russia. He also touched upon India's friendly relationship with Russia, despite Moscow's actions in Ukraine, and India's efforts in promoting its priorities, such as combating terrorism and promoting global welfare, on the international stage.
World trading rules have been gamed: S Jaishankar
India's External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar, has emphasized the importance of coexistence between national interests and multilateralism in the current geopolitical landscape. He cited the country's first year of independence as an example of trusting multilateralism and taking the Kashmir "aggression issue" to the United Nations. Jaishankar argued that values are not being less important in the current geopolitical landscape as countries compromise on principles but never on interests.
Smartphone makers turn wary of calling Chinese execs to India
Smartphone manufacturers in India exercise caution in calling for Chinese nationals due to recent arrests and geopolitical tensions. Indian government is cautious in issuing visas. Trust deficit among Chinese component makers. Chinese brands ousted Indian smartphone companies. Government aims to prevent entry-level work in distribution and marketing from being ceded to Chinese nationals. Indian talent base for such roles.
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