INDIA INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND
Modi’s Budget to send India’s soaring stocks higher: Survey
More than half of the 24 respondents estimated that the Nifty 50 Index may advance up to 26,000 points by the end of 2024, while one predicted the gauge can climb even more.
Budget 2024 may see Modi govt hiking rural housing subsidy by 50% following Lok Sabha disappointment
India plans a substantial increase in rural housing subsidies in the upcoming federal budget, potentially exceeding $6.5 billion, up by 50% from the previous year. This initiative aims to address rural economic distress and boost infrastructure spending including village roads and job programs, amid challenges in the agriculture sector and recent electoral setbacks for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party.
Spend on the world like never before
Indians drive outbound remittances, preferring foreign airlines due to underdeveloped domestic industry. Improving connectivity and tourism infrastructure is vital to boost domestic tourism. Developing skills and promoting gender-neutral employment are crucial for growth in the travel and hospitality sector.
Expect 8-10% industry volume growth for FY-25: Mohan Bangur, Shree Cement
So, in the next three quarters, the demand has to meet around 9% to 10% to make up for the lost time. In the first quarter, there were elections, there were water shortage, uncertainty of election results were there, now all those is over.
Cannot avoid market momentum but be a little more selective: Mayuresh Joshi
The entire ecosystem will see accelerated investments and the government push through regarding the capex needs. Also, railways as a theme, defence as a theme, and shipbuilders as a theme will continue. Execution is going to be extremely important out here, says Mayuresh Joshi. He further says the earnings story and earnings growth should continue to remain strong in select domestic-focused sectors
PM Gati Shakti scheme is transforming India's infrastructure: Morgan Stanley
In a recent report, Morgan Stanley has lauded India's PM Gati Shakti scheme, highlighting its significant impact on infrastructure development. The report emphasizes India's robust increase in infrastructure investment, projected to rise from 5.3% to 6.5% of GDP by F29, driven by a strong 15.3% CAGR. This growth is expected to total USD 1.45 trillion over five years, fostering high productive growth and enhancing investment rates. PM Gati Shakti integrates 16 ministries for coordinated infrastructure planning, focusing on multi-modal connectivity and logistics efficiency, which has shown tangible results in project completion and sectoral development.
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Adani Group 'well positioned' to capitalise on country's infra spending: Gautam Adani
India's Adani Group is "well positioned" to capitalize on opportunities in the country's booming infrastructure sector as spending is expected to surge, Chairman Gautam Adani told investors on Monday.
Budget 2024: India looks for infra push; may tap funds from UK, Saudi & Japan
In the upcoming Budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to prioritise infrastructure investment to boost demand for steel, cement, and create jobs. The Indian government eyes funding from the UK, Saudi Arabia, and Japan for specific projects like roads and highways. Investor concerns, equity offerings, and environmental considerations are key factors in attracting investments.
By 2032, India infrastructure spending will surpass $2.5 trillion, says Adani
The Adani Group, he said, will invest over $100 billion (around ₹8.35 lakh crore) over the next decade in energy transition projects and in manufacturing every major component required for green energy generation. Adani Green Energy is building solar and wind parks. The group is also building facilities to manufacture electrolyzers to make green hydrogen, wind power turbines and solar panels.
Morgan Stanley playing India's infra boom with these 4 stocks
Morgan Stanley expects a 15.3% CAGR in India's infrastructure investments, leading to $1.45 trillion spending over 5 years. They highlight the impact of PM Gati Shakti on project execution and efficiency improvements.
India Inc braces for revenue uncertainties in Q1 on slow govt spending, monsoon onset: Icra
Corporates are preparing for revenue uncertainties in the April-June period due to a slowdown in government spending and the onset of the monsoon season, as reported by domestic rating agency Icra. Sequential revenue growth is expected to taper in the first quarter of the fiscal, with a 6.
GDP to grow 8% in FY25 on agriculture, services boost: CII
According to the industry body, the agriculture sector is likely to grow at 3.7% in the current fiscal, compared with 1.4% last year, whereas the services sector may see a growth of 9% against 7.9% a year back.
Now, here's an India plan
The path to a developed economy by 2047 needs to be sustainable and inclusive. Boosting rural consumption is an immediate requirement. But this can't come at the cost of a disconnected fiscal policy, which may create an untenable level of debt. Similarly, physical and digital infrastructure development needs to be addressed more consciously, keeping in mind broader societal needs and environmental challenges.
Why investors are favouring FMCG stocks after elections
One key reason behind FMCG becoming a preferred choice in today’s time was this year’s general election. It was the most expensive affair with an estimated campaign cost incurred by political parties reaching a record Rs 1.35 lakh crore. A significant share of this pie moves into the pockets of rural India.
Surge in credit demand will boost the banking sector: Ashish Gupta, Axis Asset Management
"We want to ensure that one style does not get imposed on all products and there is enough diversity of styles and products," says Ashish Gupta, CIO, Axis Asset Management.
Setting up shop for turbo policy
India's economic growth of 8.2% in 2023-24 surpasses historical hurdles, reflecting policy continuity's impact on performance.
First among equals: 5 PSU stocks which have benefited the most due to government policy push, spending & may continue their journey
Right from perennial under-performers like oil marketing and refining companies to PSU banks. Literally every stock which has the tag of “PSU” stock has seen a re-rating in the last two years. Now that the exit polls are predicting what the street has been looking for, that is continuity in the policy making framework, there is a high probability that there will be another round of re-rating of PSU stocks. So, continued policy and continued re-rating. Like the earlier re-rating, this time also, some sectors and stocks in the PSU space will outperform others. A company which is going to be providing finance for the expansion of the solar energy network which is the next focus area of the government. The overall demand runway for some of the sectors is longer. This essentially means that while every PSU is likely to see a push, there are a select few which are likely to see more tailwinds of business growth and valuation expansion.
Moody's projects 6.8 per cent GDP expansion in 2024 on strong growth, post-election policy continuity
Moody's Ratings projected India's growth at 6.8% in 2024, followed by 6.5% in 2025. The prediction was driven by economic expansion and post-election policy continuity. The real GDP grew by 7.7% in 2023, with strong government spending and manufacturing activity. High-frequency indicators suggest sustained momentum in the economy. Moody's expects 6-7% annual GDP growth with policy continuity and increased capital expenditure. Private investment outlook is positive, despite inflation volatility.
Defence stocks: Long runway, hedge a bit to avoid narrative-based decisions; 8 PSU & Pvt sector stocks, 4 with upside potential of upto 44%
In an election season, there are bound to be times when one or the other narrative may make one question about whether one should sell the stocks. The underlying reason would be fear of losing the gains on which one is sitting. Especially when it comes to sectors like defence, railways and others which have seen a strong re-rating and siting with big gains and already there has been skepticism about their stock price moving ahead of time. Now let's look at the issue in two ways, first is whether the fundamentals of the sector are on a strong foot and business is fine or not. Second, how to hedge the exposure so that one is not forced to sell due to narrative, because the fact is that a continuation in policy push means that the companies have just started their journey. While defence PSUs are well known, there are other private sector players, whose lifeline is dependent on defence expenditure and in the last few years they have also done well, both on the street and in terms of real business. So, it is better that one should hedge and stay with them and not get jittery because of one or the other narrative which will keep hitting the street till 4th June.
Ten yrs on, S&P outlook for India turns 'positive'
S&P Global Ratings has upgraded India's sovereign outlook to 'positive' after 10 years, citing improved public spending quality and expectations of continuity in reforms and fiscal policies. India's rating remains BBB- but could be upgraded if cautious fiscal and monetary policies reduce government debt and interest burden while boosting economic resilience. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman welcomed the upgrade, attributing it to macroeconomic reforms since 2014. Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth expressed confidence in India's economy, highlighting robust growth and improved credit metrics.
India to stick to policy path even if Modi loses, says Raghuram Rajan
Former central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan addressed concerns about possible selloff in financial markets if the Bharatiya Janata Party loses support post-Indian elections. Rajan emphasized the need for economic reforms and infrastructure quality improvement.
Candidates of strong directional move on 4th June: 5 PSU stocks which have benefited the most due to government policy push and spending
In the last two years, it is a well known fact that every PSU stock has been re-rated by the street, right from perennial under-performers like oil marketing and refining oil companies to PSU banks. But if one looks a bit deeper there are some which have been re-rated more than others. The reason, these are PSUs which are from the sectors where the government has clearly decided are its priority areas and there has been a policy push for these sectors. A company which is going to be providing finance for the expansion of the solar energy network which is the next focus of the government. The overall demand runway for these sectors is longer which means overall growth will be higher when confirmation of policy continuity comes. Also they are in business where it would be difficult for the private sector to compete. Now because it is the policy push which matters, the continuity of tailwinds of higher government spending, will push them for another round of re-rating on the result day.
RBI's ₹2 lakh-crore boost may help India's new govt have an easy-peasy run to achieve a goal
The RBI on May 22 announced a record-high dividend transfer to the government equivalent to 0.6 per cent of GDP ( Rs 2.1 lakh) from its operations in FY24. The figure has surpassed the 0.3 per cent of GDP expected in the FY25 budget from February. Hence, the rating agency said that it will aid the authorities in meeting near-term deficit reduction goals.
India’s economic momentum to remain strong post-election: S&P Global Market Intelligence
India's post-election economic momentum is expected to be driven by capital spending, private consumption, and investment. S&P Global Market Intelligence highlights strategic sectors like renewables, electronics, and logistics. Inflation is projected to ease, and if the NDA secures a two-thirds majority, the focus will be on economic growth and fiscal deficit reduction. Technology integration and social welfare are key considerations depending on the election outcome.
India stands out for EM investors in ageing world
The investors are focusing on the two nations in emerging Asia, thanks in part to an expected boom in infrastructure spending, which in turn bodes well for the countries' economies.
RBI's record dividend presents a delicious dilemma for new Indian government
As India prepares for a new government by June 4, a significant Rs 2.11 lakh crore windfall awaits allocation. Options range from faster deficit reduction to increased spending. Analysts anticipate positive investor sentiment, though preferences vary between deficit reduction and expenditure. The BJP-led government's cautious approach contrasts with opposition promises
AI spending in India may triple to $5 billion by 2027: report
"AI spending in India is expected to increase to $5 billion with CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 31.5 per cent between 2023 to 2027. By 2027 AI will be everywhere," Sharath Srinivasamurthy, Associate Vice President, IDC said.
Govt evaluating RBI proposal for higher infrastructure provisioning; bankers, NBFCs voice concern
Lenders may oppose the draft rules, which proposes provisioning of up to 5% from current 0.4%, due to concerns over rising interest rates and potential disruption to capital expenditure. Banks plan to lobby against the steep increase, arguing it could affect project viability and economic momentum. State-owned NBFCs and infrastructure firms are also raising concerns, emphasizing the need to balance risk and support for infrastructure financing.
Domestic consumption demand, govt capex lent support to India Inc's credit profile: ICRA
ICRA's latest report highlighted India Inc's credit profile in the 2023-24 fiscal year, citing domestic consumption demand and infrastructure spending as key supports. Despite challenges like rising borrowing costs and global events, rating upgrades outpaced downgrades. Sectors like aviation and hospitality saw positive momentum, while challenges persisted in others. The agency maintained a positive outlook for the hospitality sector in 2024-25 and noted improvements in credit profiles, with a decrease in instances of defaults.
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