INDIA RAINFALL AGRICULTURE
India Ratings’ Devendra Pant on how water shortage can impact economic growth
Devendra Pant, Chief Economist at India Ratings, highlights the long-term impact of water scarcity in India on agriculture, manufacturing, and hydroelectricity production. He emphasizes the need for immediate action by policymakers and citizens to address this critical issue. Pant says water scarcity is going to have an impact. and not only in agriculture, unless we develop or have those seeds and crops that can withstand extreme weather conditions.
India to see above-average rainfall in July, IMD says
In June, India faced below-normal rainfall with a deficit of 11%, marking the highest in five years, impacting the monsoon's progress. July forecasts predict above-average rainfall nationwide, following a delayed onset and stalled progression after Maharashtra, intensifying heat waves in northwest India. The core monsoon zone anticipates above-normal rainfall critical for agriculture.
The worrying changes in India’s monsoon patterns have implications for everything from agriculture to health
Take Maharashtra, 80% of which is rainfed. In areas such as Vidarbha and Marathwada, the onset of monsoon is now late. After a small pickup in July, there is a break in rainfall in August, lasting up to three-four weeks during the fruit formation phase. The wet spell starts again in September and continues well into October, when it should be dry. This isn't limited to Maharashtra. Several critical areas considered the breadbasket of India—Bihar, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh—are witnessing the same pattern.
80% of marginal farmers in India affected by adverse climatic events: Report
According to the report, nearly 43 per cent of the surveyed farmers lost at least half of their standing crops. Rice, vegetables, and pulses were particularly affected by uneven rainfall. In the northern states, paddy fields often remain submerged for more than a week, destroying newly planted seedlings.
Government focus on agriculture, rural income to sustain tractor demand: Swaraj Engines
The government's agricultural focus in India, along with initiatives to boost rural incomes, is expected to sustain tractor demand despite a 7 per cent industry sales decline reported by Swaraj Engines Ltd. The company's annual report highlights opportunities in the horticultural segment and factors like increased affordability, demand for farm mechanisation, and government efforts to improve agriculture. Swaraj Engines foresees its engine business aligning with the industry's growth trajectory.
Monsoon inches northwards; covers Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh
Southwest Monsoon advanced northwards, covering Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Vidarbha, bringing relief to parched regions. India has 17% deficient rainfall this monsoon season.
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Monsoon gathering pace, to strengthen in Maharashtra by June 21-22: IMD
Several parts of Mumbai received showers on Wednesday morning, but it was insufficient to give respite from oppressive heat. Monsoon arrived in Mumbai on June 9, two days ahead of its normal schedule. Since then it made little progress and it is yet to cover parts of northern Maharashtra and Vidarbha.
June rainfall 20 per cent below average as monsoon stalls: IMD
Since June 1, northwest India has recorded 10.2 mm of rainfall (70 per cent less than normal), central India 50.5 mm (31 per cent less than normal), the south peninsula 106.6 mm (16 per cent more than normal), and east and northeast India 146.7 mm (15 per cent less than normal).
IMD revises June rainfall forecast downwards to 'below normal'
According to the weather office, the SW Monsoon set in over Kerala and northeastern states on May 30. Despite the onset over Kerala two days before normal, and over northeast six days before normal, the north-ward progress over Kerala, Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Goa and Telangana, most parts of South Maharashtra and some parts of South Chhattisgarh, South Odisha, most parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and entire northeastern was gradual and happened by June 12.
20% monsoon deficit adds to India's sweltering heatwave troubles
India's monsoon has delivered 20% less rainfall than normal this season, raising concerns for agriculture. The IMD reports deficits in most regions, with northwestern states facing heat waves. Officials anticipate a revival could mitigate the shortfall. Northern states currently experience temperatures of 42-47.6°C, exceeding normal levels by 4-9°C, with a forecasted decline by the weekend.
Fertiliser, agrochemical stocks rally as monsoon arrives early
Fertiliser and agrochemical companies like FACT, Nova Agritech, and Rallis India saw a boost in shares as the monsoons arrived early. Analysts expect increased demand for products due to favorable weather conditions, with specific bullish recommendations for Coromandel International and other companies.
PM Modi shows rural bent, OKs ₹20kcr for PM Kisan Nidhi Scheme
The Prime Minister approved the 17th instalment of the PM Kisan Nidhi Scheme, benefiting 93 million farmers with around ₹20,000 crore. This move is seen as a boost to rural demand and consumer stocks. The new coalition government is expected to focus more on rural welfare, signaling a shift towards consumption-focused policies. Rural markets have shown growth, outpacing urban markets for the first time in five quarters, indicating a positive trend for the FMCG sector. The PM emphasized the government's commitment to farmer welfare and agriculture.
Monsoon likely to enter south Gujarat by June 12: IMD
The IMD has said India is likely to receive above average monsoon rains this year. The country depends heavily on the summer rains for its farm output, to boost agriculture and overall economic growth. As per the IMD, India is likely to experience normal rainfall (92-108 per cent of long period average of 166.9 mm) in June.
Monsoon reaches Mumbai two days early
Southwest monsoon arrived in Mumbai two days early, after early onset over Kerala and northeast on May 30, as per IMD. Last year, monsoon reached Delhi and Mumbai together on June 25, impacted by Cyclone Biparjoy. Monsoon normally reaches Kerala by June 1 and Mumbai by June 11.
Dabur India, PI Industries could rally 19-26% return on above normal monsoon: Siddhartha Khemka
IMD predicts above-normal monsoon in 2024, impacting agriculture and market sectors positively. Companies like Dabur India and PI Industries could see significant growth. Expert insights from Motilal Oswal Financial Services highlight investment opportunities in the pharma sector.
Will BJP win? This market awaits June 4 results for potential shakeups in India's trade policies & global food prices
India's agricultural markets are under scrutiny as a new government prepares to take office, potentially impacting global food prices. Prime Minister Modi's policies aimed at ensuring domestic supplies have influenced key crop exports. Changes post-election could affect rice, wheat, and sugar markets, with industry leaders seeking policy shifts to address supply and demand challenges.
Survival at 15,000 feet: A tiny Himalayan village fights for water and jobs
Tucked in the Himalayas at 15,256 feet, Tashigang, home to the world's highest polling station, faces severe challenges due to climate change and limited resources. As Tashigang and neighboring Gete prepare to vote, the demand for jobs and better infrastructure is pressing. Locals like Kalzang Dolma struggle with declining agriculture and job losses. Water scarcity and inadequate roads further exacerbate their difficulties.
Monsoon sets in over Kerala, northeast: IMD
Southwest monsoon advances into Kerala and Northeast India, one day early in Kerala and 6 days early in Northeast. Heavy rainfall in Kerala, beneficial for agriculture. Monsoon crucial for agriculture, providing 70% of India's yearly rain and supporting GDP and population.
Southwest monsoon sets over Kerala, advances into most parts of northeast India: IMD
The Southwest Monsoon has arrived in Kerala and advanced into much of Northeast India, as announced by India's weather office. Hitting Kerala's coast a day ahead of the forecast, the monsoon's early onset in the northeast may be due to Cyclone Remal, which struck West Bengal and Bangladesh. Kerala has experienced heavy rains, resulting in surplus May rainfall.
Basmati rice export prices plummet below government MEP, global buyers stay away
Export price of basmati rice falls below government-fixed minimum export price, impacting global buyers and domestic prices. Concerns arise over MEP changes, basmati trade competitiveness, and price pressure. Monsoon and La Niña forecasts influence basmati production, while India's rainfall patterns and consumption trends play significant roles.
Conditions becoming favourable for southwest monsoon onset over Kerala in 3-4 days: IMD
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts the Southwest Monsoon will reach Kerala in the next 3-4 days, bringing relief from the current heatwave in Northwest and Central India starting May 30. The monsoon is expected to advance into additional areas, including parts of the South Arabian Sea, Maldives, Lakshadweep, and Northeastern states. IMD forecasts "above normal" rainfall during the June-September monsoon, promising a bountiful agricultural harvest, which may ease inflation and boost growth.
In Focus: Scrips that like a cloud on the horizon
Companies such as Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Britannia, Dabur, Hero Motocorp, Westlife Foodworld, Shoppers Stop and others have already indicated in their commentary a gradual demand recovery if the monsoon forecast turns out to be accurate.
IMD predicts 106% rainfall of long period average during June-September monsoon season
The southwest monsoon is expected to make onset over Kerala around May 31 against the normal date of June 1 and “its advance soi far has been near normal and conditions will continue to be favourable for its onset over Indian mainland,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD.
Southwest monsoon makes onset over Nicobar Islands, says IMD
The annual rainfall phenomenon is expected to reach Kerala by May 31. The date of monsoon onset over Kerala has varied widely over the last 150 years, the earliest being May 11 in 1918, and the most delayed being June 18 in 1972, according to IMD data. The rain-bearing system arrived in the southern state on June 8 last year, May 29 in 2022, June 3 in 2021 and June 1 in 2020.
Skymet says monsoon may hit Kerala on Jun 1
India's southwest monsoon is expected to reach Kerala on June 1, according to private weather forecaster Skymet, a day later than the official prediction by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The monsoon, which advances northward and typically covers the entire country by mid-July, is crucial as it provides 70% of India's annual rainfall. This year's monsoon is predicted to bring plentiful rains, aiding farm output and economic growth. The IMD anticipates a transition from El Nino to ENSO-neutral conditions by mid-2024, potentially leading to more favorable La Nina conditions.
Monsoon likely to reach Kerala by May 31: IMD
IMD forecasts the southwest monsoon onset over Kerala on May 31, advancing to cover India by July 15, with potential La Niña impact on rainfall in June-August 2024, crucial for agricultural output in FY 25.
After heatwave spells, Southwest Monsoon likely to reach Kerala by May 31, predicts IMD
The southwest monsoon is expected to make onset over Kerala around May 31 against the normal date of June 1, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday. The advance of the southwest monsoon over Indian main land is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator of the beginning of monsoon season.
Above-normal Southwest monsoon chances bring hope for India's agricultural sector: Geojit report
Multiple meteorological organisations are predicting above-normal rainfall during this year's southwest monsoon season in the Indian subcontinent. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts the total rainfall from June to September to be 106% of the long-period average. Last year's southwest monsoon ended with a 6% deficit due to El Nino, causing variations in rainfall distribution. Some regions experienced shortages while others, like West Rajasthan and Saurashtra-Kutch, received ample rainfall. However, 7 subdivisions, including Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura, experienced deficient rainfall.
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