INDIAN GDP
Union Budget 2024 will likely focus on women, middle-class and agri sector
BUDGET EXPECTATIONS: Narendra Modi's third-term Budget, slated for July 23, focuses on leveraging revenue growth and RBI dividends for infrastructure and targeted sectors. The session will also introduce non-legislative reforms. The Economic Survey will precede, highlighting achievements and future plans. Sitharaman aims to tackle inflation, unemployment, and regional disparities with tax measures and social benefits, aiming for a fiscal deficit of 4.5% amid robust GDP projections.
RBI aims to get inflation down to 4%, don't expect any rate cut this year: Amitabh Chaudhry, MD, Axis Bank
Axis Bank aims for sustained growth through NIM enhancement, market share expansion, and compliance strengthening under CEO Amitabh Chaudhry's leadership.
Economy on strong wicket after fiscal first quarter
India's economy showed strong first-quarter performance with surging manufacturing activity, robust GST collections, and record-high Sensex, alongside a rise in passenger car sales and new export orders from overseas markets, as highlighted by industry experts and economic indicators.
Budget 2024: A look at India’s GDP growth rate before Sitharaman sets the ball rolling in Lok Sabha
Budget 2024 GDP | Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is preparing to unveil Union Budget 2024 in July, underlining India's robust GDP growth. With GDP climbing to 7.8% in Q4 FY24 and an estimated 8.2% for FY24, policies will focus on sustaining growth momentum. The budget aims to align economic strategies with evolving demands amidst global uncertainties.
India's economy: A-Z all you need to know before announcement of Union Budget
Union Budget will be announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in late July. The report covers key economic indicators, including India's GDP growth at 7.8% in Q4FY24, concerns over consumption expenditure, stable retail inflation at 4.7%, fiscal deficit reduction to 5.6% in FY24, and a narrowing trade deficit | Budget 2024
Savings down, financial liabilities up: RBI says household debt warrants close monitoring
The Reserve Bank of India highlighted rising household financial liabilities post-Covid, with overall savings dropping to 18.4% of GDP in FY23 from an average of 20% between 2013-22. Household debt, driven by increased retail loans, is mostly held by prime credit quality borrowers. Savings are now shifting towards physical assets and non-bank investments.
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CAD in surplus in March quarter after four years
India's current account turned into a surplus in the quarter ended March 2024, marking the first surplus in four years. This change was driven by a moderation in the trade deficit, higher services income, and increased remittances from overseas Indians.
Capital goods companies expected to post 9-11% revenue growth rate in FY25
As per the analysis, operating margin could moderate 80-100 basis points to 12-13% in fiscal 2025 as the market scenario continues to be highly competitive and exports remain sluggish.
India can grow at 8 pc if inflation keeps falling: Ashima Goyal, an external member of MPC
Ashima Goyal, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, emphasized the potential for India's economy to grow at 8% if the nominal repo rate falls in line with declining inflation. The Reserve Bank of India has projected a GDP growth of 7.2% for the current fiscal year.
India's roaring growth may not change the story of its great divide, finds economists' poll
A nearly 85% majority of development economists and policy experts, 43 out of 51, in a May 15-June 18 Reuters poll, said they were not confident economic inequality would significantly reduce over the next five years, including 21 who said they had no confidence at all.
Fitch raises FY25 India GDP growth forecast to 7.2 per cent
In its Global Economic Outlook (GEO) released Monday, it raised its forecast for world growth in 2024 to 2.6% from 2.4% estimated earlier. India's economy grew 8.2% in FY24. "We expect the Indian economy to expand by a strong 7.2% in FY25 (an upward revision of 0.2pp from the March GEO)," Fitch Ratings said, adding that investment will continue to rise but more slowly than in recent quarters, while consumer spending will recover with elevated consumer confidence. Purchasing managers survey data point to continued growth at the start of the current financial year.
GDP to grow 8% in FY25 on agriculture, services boost: CII
According to the industry body, the agriculture sector is likely to grow at 3.7% in the current fiscal, compared with 1.4% last year, whereas the services sector may see a growth of 9% against 7.9% a year back.
Upward GDP projection and no change in interest rates welcomed by industry and economists
Industry leaders and economists widely accepted RBI's monetary policy stand of no change in interest rates. Besides upward projection of GDP growth for FY25 from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent is welcomed by the Industry.
RBI MPC meeting: India’s FY25 GDP forecast raised to 7.2% from 7%
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the FY25 real GDP growth forecast to 7.2% from 7% due to improved rural and urban demand, bolstered by monsoon predictions. The Monetary Policy Committee kept the benchmark rate at 6.25%, noting domestic economic resilience. India's FY24 GDP growth accelerated to 8.2%, driven by a sharp decline in the GDP deflator.
RBI MPC Meet 2024: RBI leaves inflation projection for FY25 unchanged at 4.5%
RBI MPC Meet 2024 LIVE: The Reserve Bank of India maintained its inflation forecast at 4.5% for this fiscal year amid concerns over rising food prices. The central bank found some relief as crude prices dipped below $80 per barrel. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the eighth consecutive time, citing vigilance against potential inflationary pressures. Governor Shaktikanta Das highlighted the uptick in vegetable prices and global food inflation. Despite a slight easing in overall retail inflation to 4.83%, concerns linger over food price hikes, particularly in items like garlic and ginger.
Strong growth, lower fiscal deficit may lead to India rating upgrade: Deutsche Bank
A German brokerage predicts a possible sovereign rating upgrade for India due to strong growth and improved fiscal deficit targets. S&P recently upgraded India's sovereign rating outlook to 'positive'. The real GDP growth for India has been resilient, with a notable increase in FY24.
Economy expands 7.8% in Q4, lifting FY24 growth to 8.2%
This is the highest annual growth since FY17, excluding the 9.7% post-Covid rebound in gross domestic product (GDP) in FY22 after the 5.8% contraction in FY21. The advance estimate released in February had pegged FY24 growth at 7.6%. Economists and government expect the high growth to continue though tepid private consumption remains a concern.
Indian economy is on a firm footing: RBI annual report
The Reserve Bank of India's annual report highlights the Indian economy's firm footing, driven by improved external sector sustainability and robust corporate balance sheets. It projects 7% GDP growth for 2024-25, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, production-linked incentive schemes, and an expected above-normal monsoon, despite global uncertainties and challenges.
RBI projects real GDP growth at 7% in FY25, says outlook for Indian economy remains bright
The Reserve Bank of India's annual report projects a 7% growth for the Indian economy in the current fiscal year. It highlights the economy's resilience and sustained strengthening of macroeconomic fundamentals. The report notes a robust expansion in the previous fiscal year, with real GDP growth reaching 7.6%. Despite headwinds, the outlook remains positive due to government investments and consumer optimism.
RBI's balance sheet size is now 2.5x the size of Pakistan's GDP
The Reserve Bank of India's balance sheet grew by 11.08% to Rs 70.48 lakh crore as of March 31, 2024. The RBI's income rose by 17.04%, while expenditure decreased by 56.30%. Consequently, the RBI's surplus increased by 141.23% to Rs 2.11 lakh crore, transferred to the Centre.
Indian economy grew 7.4% in Q4 FY24; 8% in FY24: SBI Research
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) raised the global growth forecast for 2024 to 3.2 per cent, an improvement from its earlier projections. Global headline inflation is expected to decline from an annual average of 6.8 per cent in 2023 to 5.9 per cent in 2024, and further to 4.5 per cent in 2025, according to IMF estimates.
India’s economic momentum to remain strong post-election: S&P Global Market Intelligence
India's post-election economic momentum is expected to be driven by capital spending, private consumption, and investment. S&P Global Market Intelligence highlights strategic sectors like renewables, electronics, and logistics. Inflation is projected to ease, and if the NDA secures a two-thirds majority, the focus will be on economic growth and fiscal deficit reduction. Technology integration and social welfare are key considerations depending on the election outcome.
Indian economy likely grew at weakest pace in a year in Jan-March, says Reuters poll
India's economy likely experienced its slowest growth in a year during the January-March quarter, attributed to weak domestic demand, according to a Reuters poll of economists. This follows a surprising 8.4% GDP growth in the October-December quarter, boosted by a sharp drop in subsidies that artificially increased net indirect taxes, while gross value added (GVA) grew by 6.5%. For the January-March period, GDP growth is expected to have slowed to 6.7%, with GVA growth at 6.2%.
India seen to emerge as an economic superpower in impending problem-ridden global financial landscape
Global recession risks have diminished, but inflation concerns threaten financial stability. The IMF, World Bank, and rating agencies forecast a slowdown in global growth, citing Middle East conflicts, financial stress, persistent inflation, and reduced international trade as key risks. The IMF's Global Debt Monitor reveals global debt at $235 trillion, or 238% of global GDP, raising fears of a debt crisis. Fiscal prudence may suffer as many nations face elections this year.
GDP likely expanded 6.8% in Q4; FY24 print may hit 7.8%
The strong March quarter print could lift overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the full fiscal year to 7.8% against 7.6% assessed in the government's first advance estimates released in February. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also forecast 7.8% growth for FY24. The government will release fourth-quarter growth numbers and provisional GDP data for FY24 on May 31.
Indian economy likely grew at a 4-quarter low in Q4: ICRA
Economists predict India's economy to grow at a four-quarter low of 6.7% in Q4FY24. The growth in 3 FY24 was 8.4%. Agricultural GVA is likely to contract for 2nd straight quarter, amid rabi output concerns. Overall GVA growth expected to ease to 5.7% in Q4, driven by industrial and services sectors. ICRA forecasts FY2024 GDP and GVA growth at 7.8% and 7.0%, respectively.
GDP growth likely to be 6.2 pc in Q4; 7 pc in FY24: Ind-RA
India Ratings and Research forecasts India's GDP growth rate at 6.2% for the March quarter and 6.9-7% for 2023-24 fiscal year, per economist Sunil Kumar Sinha. The government is to release Q4 GDP numbers and fiscal estimates on May 31.
UN raises India's 2024 growth forecast to 6.9%
The revision by the UN follows similar moves by other multilateral agencies following India's strong economic performance last fiscal.
UN upgrades India's 2024 growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.2%
The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2024, released Thursday, said, "India's economy is forecast to expand by 6.9 per cent in 2024 and 6.6 per cent in 2025, mainly driven by strong public investment and resilient private consumption. Although subdued external demand will continue to weigh on merchandise export growth, pharmaceuticals and chemicals exports are expected to expand strongly."
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