INFLATION IMPACTS INR
Rising vegetable prices strain household budgets across India: Survey
A survey by LocalCircles highlighted significant consumer concerns over rising prices of essential vegetables—onion, potato, and tomato. It found that 16% of households are cutting consumption or feeling financial strain due to these price hikes, with another 31% anticipating impact if prices exceed INR 50 per kg. Currently, 2 in 3 households are paying above-average prices: Rs 25/kg or more for tomatoes, Rs 30/kg or more for potatoes, and Rs 35/kg or more for onions.
How ‘Mehengai’ impacts your real rate of return
Inflation impacts stakeholders like companies, investors, and the economy. Central banks manage inflation. Real Rate of Return is crucial for investment performance.
Learn with ETMarkets: How inflation impacts INR & what currency traders should do?
The Indian Rupee (INR) is influenced by global economic trends, inflation, recession fears, and geopolitical tensions. Traders should monitor inflation, anticipate capital flows, and use hedging strategies in the forex market.
RBI MPC Meeting 2024 at a glance: Here's a one-stop guide to all key decisions
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to maintain the current interest rate at 6.5%, following a 4:2 majority decision. The panel projected real GDP growth for FY25 to be 7.2%, up from 7%. The MPC is also maintaining the Standing Deposit Facility rate at 6.25% and the Marginal Standing Facility bank rate at 6.75%.
Wider conflict in the Middle East may lead to rise in inflation: BoB Report
Tensions between Israel and Iran have created uncertainty and volatility in global markets. Asian markets are down, currencies are weaker, and oil prices have risen. India's Sensex has declined in the past four sessions, affecting consumer durables and banking stocks. The 10-year yield in India initially remained flat but is now higher at 7.21%, reflecting concerns over Middle East tensions.
How sequence of return risk can impact retirees' portfolio
Sequence of return risk is the danger that the timing of withdrawals from an investment portfolio, particularly during retirement, coincides with a period of poor investment returns.
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Fuel prices seen stable for now, inflation in check
Middle East conflict may influence India's inflation and oil prices. Recent data shows decreasing consumer inflation. Monsoon forecasted to help control food inflation. RBI projects lower inflation. Markets stabilize after Iran's attack on Israel.
Rupee vs Dollar: INR to remain range bound in near term, offer hedging opportunities to importers, exporters
Flows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) would have an impact on the movement of rupee against the US dollar bringing it to the downside on occasion.
Fed keeps June rate cut hopes alive. How exciting is that for stock investors?
US Federal Reserve anticipates rate cuts in June, sparking global stock rally. Sensex and gold prices surge, reflecting market optimism. Fed's adjustments show confidence in economic stability.
RBI Monetary Policy at a Glance: Here's your quick guide to know all about MPC policy
The Reserve Bank of India's Governor-led Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concluded its recent meeting, maintaining the repo rate at 6.5%. This decision comes amidst concerns over inflation, with retail inflation remaining near the upper end of the central bank's comfort zone. Key highlights include the forecasted GDP growth rate of 7% for FY25, the projection of CPI inflation at 4.5% for the same period, and the decision to keep inflation forecast unchanged at 5.4% for the fiscal year.
Bajaj Auto shares rally 4%, hit 52-week high on robust Q3 results
Bajaj Auto shares reached a 52-week high of Rs 7,499 despite scepticism from Kotak Institutional Equities and Nuvama. Kotak maintained a 'Sell' rating, citing a high valuation, while Nuvama reiterated a 'Hold' stance. JM Financial remained positive, citing a favorable product mix and strong domestic demand. Bajaj Auto reported a 37% YoY growth in net profit for Q3, beating estimates.
Rupee closes little changed, awaits key US inflation data
The Indian rupee ended little changed on Tuesday after dollar demand from state-run banks ate into the local unit's early gains in light of a proposal to include eligible Indian bonds in the Bloomberg Emerging Market Local Currency Index.
Headline inflation remains vulnerable to recurring and overlapping shocks: RBI Guv
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das, speaking at FIBAC 2023, highlighted the vulnerability of headline inflation to both domestic and international factors. While household price rise expectations are stabilizing, headline inflation remains susceptible to recurring shocks. Das acknowledged the success of RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) actions in softening headline inflation and noted the moderation in core inflation.
Conditions not ripe to make INR a hard currency: GTRI
India should become a middle-income country and then push to make INR (rupee) a hard currency, and till then, it must promote the settlement of global trade in the local currency, think tank GTRI said on Sunday.
Conditions not ripe to make INR a hard currency: GTRI
India should become a middle-income country and then push to make the INR (rupee) a hard currency, according to think tank GTRI. The process involves several factors, including economic stability, strong fiscal and monetary policies, political stability, and the presence of a reliable and stable store of value. The US Dollar is the most dominant hard currency, used in a significant majority of international transactions and as a benchmark currency for most commodities.
Rupee impact on inflation unlikely to be significant
The recent drop in the value of the Indian rupee might not cause a big change in inflation rate unless the currency falls even more, according to experts. Economists say that the Indian currency would need to drop significantly more than it already has against the dollar for it to affect inflation.
India gaining momentum amid global uncertainty with moderating inflation, less volatile rupee: RBI Bulletin
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has stated in its October bulletin that India is gaining momentum despite global uncertainty. Inflation has eased and the rupee has become less volatile. The article highlights India's positive performance in high-frequency indicators, particularly in capital-heavy industries. The Indian rupee is currently displaying low volatility, and the moderation in inflation is reinforcing the country's macroeconomic fundamentals. The global economic scenario is also discussed, with a slowdown in global growth noted.
The enervating Goldilocks presumptions: 7 takeaways for Indian markets
The strength of wage growth, asset price inflation, and the lingering impact of the post-Covid dole-outs have kept household demand above potential, thereby sustaining the high inflation. Additionally, the federal government fiscal expansion, rising 61% YoY to $1.52 trillion (Oct’22-Aug’23, projected at $1.9 trillion in FY24), is creating another round of demand impulses.
Expect INR at 83 by Sept end; don’t expect rate cut before Q3 of 2024: Dhiraj Nim, ANZ Research
"The Indian rupee is expected to remain in a tight range against the dollar, with a forecast of 83 per dollar by September end. The dollar index is expected to reach 105 by the end of the quarter, but this level is not easy for emerging market currencies. The Indian bond yields may rise due to high inflation and government bond supply, and there is a possibility of rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India if food inflation persists. "
Is dollar-rupee eyeing a breakdown below 81.50?
The consolidation in the USD-INR pair, which started around October 2022 is still intact. It was seen bottoming near the 81-81.50 zone and topping near the 82.80-83.25 zone. The major reason behind the sideways move or lower volatility is the RBI’s regular intervention on both sides.
Gold Rate Today: Gold prices in India slip amid gains in INR against USD. Check price of yellow metal in Delhi, Ahmedabad, and other cities
Dollar index’s fall augurs well for the yellow metal in the short term and investors can look to buy gold and silver futures now, Anuj Gupta, Vice President (VP), Commodity and Currency Research at IIFL Securities said.
Will USD jump off the cliff or will it build new wings?
Last week, central bank communications to the market caused a weaker USD and stronger EUR, GBP, and other EM currencies. The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to pause rate hikes but revised upward their dot plots, causing ambiguity. The European Central Bank raised interest rates to 4%, the highest level since the financial crisis, and warned that this rate-hike saga may continue through summer. Meanwhile, the Bank of England has been clear on its hawkish path, having raised interest rates 12 successive times since December 2021. The market's expectations will increase and confidence will be reflected in economic data.
USD-INR likely to be range bound amid US debt ceiling crisis, says Anil Kumar Bhansali of Finrex Treasury Advisors
The oil companies are buying dollars keeping rupee in the range of 81.90 - 82.40. They were absent from the scene earlier, refusing to buy dollars at 81.60. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had to intervene to protect the level of 81.60.
Due to thrust on exports, Rupee may not gain much against dollar: Anil Kumar Bhansali, Finrex Treasury Advisors
During FY23, the Indian rupee depreciated against all major currencies except the yen, with losses of about 8.42% against the dollar, 2.14% against the pound, and 6.21% against the euro. However, the INR remains fairly stable against emerging markets and Asian currencies. Bhasnsali believes that the current USD-INR level is ideal for exporters and importers, with limited upside at 83 and a range-bound currency attracting foreign investment in the short to medium-term.
What is in the treasure for the rupee in FY-2024?
In recent testimony, US Fed Chair Powell hinted at a hawkish stance and thus the market pushed the terminal rate to 5.50-5.75%. For the next FY, the more the job market remains on the tighter side and inflation remains sticky; the more the Fed will hike their rates to switch the real interest rate into positive territory.
Dollar weakening a short-term respite for INR; could depreciate to Rs 85-86
The susceptibility of capital flows and currency markets to relative growth performance has intensified
US dollar strengthens to near July’s two-decade high. How does it impact commodities?
The dollar index, which measures the value of the US greenback against a basket of other foreign currencies, gained 14 percent so far this year. This was primarily due to the aggressive rate hike decision of the US Federal Reserve and global investors moving assets to the perceived safety of the US amid geopolitical tensions.
EMIs to rise again after RBI repo rate hike and there's more pain to come
The new rate hike cycle started on May 04, 2022, when the RBI increased the repo rate by 40 bps. This was the first hike in repo rate after almost a gap of 4 years.
How will a sliding Rupee impact the credit ratings of companies?
Computer hardware, steel, fertiliser, and coal importers face a possible downgrade, while companies from sectors such as pharma, paper, tea and textile firms may benefit from an upgrade, said, chief rating officers. Even the outlook can be revised.
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