PROPERTY DEBT CRISIS
China's June factory activity contracts again, services slows
China's economic indicators for June painted a challenging picture, with manufacturing activity stagnating and services slipping to a five-month low, according to an official survey released on Sunday. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remained unchanged at 49.5, below the growth threshold of 50, indicating ongoing economic struggles despite some positive signals in industrial production. Analysts noted that while exports have been a strong driver, both domestic and external demand remain insufficient to fully utilize China's manufacturing capacity, prompting calls for additional policy support to stimulate growth.
Indian realty surge drives debt financing demand, to top Rs 14 lakh cr by 2026: Report
The real estate market in Mumbai is experiencing a resurgence driven by government policies, urbanization, and economic recovery, leading to increased demand for financing. The sector is expected to create debt financing opportunities worth over Rs 14 lakh crores by 2026, with lenders seeing opportunities for growth and innovation in funding structures.
China's May industrial output misses forecasts, retail sales a bright spot
China's industrial output fell below expectations, leading to calls for fiscal and monetary policy support. Retail sales exceeded forecasts, driven by global demand.
Evergrande liquidation law firm probing PwC, others for potential claims
Lawyers for China Evergrande Group's liquidators are investigating its former auditor, PwC, and other service providers to recover losses for creditors. Ordered into liquidation in January due to defaulting on $23 billion in offshore debt, Evergrande's extensive $300 billion liabilities make its case a potential model for future Chinese corporate liquidations. The probe focuses on potential wrongdoing that led to Evergrande's financial collapse.
UBS fund manager likes China's junk debt but is skeptical on India
“In India, the market underestimates the risk, while in China high yield, Sri Lanka and certain other corners of EM, the market overestimates the risk,” Khan, who manages combined assets of roughly $1 billion, said in an interview this week.
Higher probability of re-rating and relative outperformance in volatile markets: 5 metal stocks with upside potential of up to 37%
Whether one likes it or not, the fact is that sectoral trends dominate the market move and sectoral rotation does take place. But if one looks at sectoral rotation, most of the time there is an underlying fundamental reason why sectoral rotation takes place. If one looks at the performance of the metal sector stocks in the last few months, there are indications that some amount of money is flowing back to the sector. Even in the last four trading sessions which were very volatile, it has been metal stocks, which have shown relative strength. It is probably because of two reasons, first the fact that After the IT sector companies, metal is another sector where the fortunes of Indian companies are more tied to what is happening globally rather than what is happening in India. Second, recovery in China seems to be gathering pace and the fact is, there are some filing which one can see on stock exchanges, around increase in prices by some companies. It would be better to have them on watchlist because they have shown a tendency to see sharp spikes even before the news comes.
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China's factory activity unexpectedly contracts in May
China's manufacturing activity fell in May, with the official factory survey showing a decline. Calls for fresh stimulus persist due to the ongoing property crisis impacting businesses, consumers, and investors.
IMF revises China's GDP to 5% this year; growth may decelerate to 3.3 per cent by 2029, says Gita Gopinath
The 5 per cent growth revision by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is in line with the target set by the Chinese government for the world's second-largest economy which is grappling with a slowdown triggered by the crippling property sector crisis and industrial overcapacity.
Dalal St is likely pricing in a Modi 3.0 but election winners already have a bitter household burden
India's stock market hit an all-time high last week, as investors anticipate a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi will boost corporate profits. However, consumer debt poses a significant risk. Slow wage growth, high interest rates, and heavy borrowing have strained spending for over 300 million families. Despite this, investors expect post-election growth in private capital expenditure and infrastructure projects
IMF upgrades China's 2024, 2025 GDP growth forecasts but warns of risks ahead
"China's economic growth is projected to remain resilient at five percent in 2024 and slow to 4.5 percent in 2025," the IMF said in a press release, adding the decision was "driven by strong first-quarter GDP data and recent policy measures".
Shanghai lifts home-buying curbs to boost property sector
Shanghai eases property buying rules amidst a real estate crisis, reducing residency requirement to 3 years and minimum down payment to 20% for commercial housing mortgages.
China allocates billions of dollars to bailout its crisis-hit property sector
China has taken decisive measures to tackle the crisis in its property sector, which has been a crucial driver of its economic growth. The People's Bank of China has announced a 300-billion-yuan relending facility to support government-subsidized housing projects. Local state-owned enterprises are encouraged to purchase completed commercial homes to provide affordable housing. Commercial banks have issued significant loans for real estate development and individual housing.
China lays out 'historic' plans to prop up its realty market
Investors hoped the measures marked the beginning of more decisive government intervention to compensate for waning demand for new and old apartments, to slow down falling prices and to reduce a growing stock of unsold homes. Since the property market began its steep downturn in 2021, a string of developers have defaulted, leaving scores of idle construction sites behind, and sapping confidence in what had been the preferred savings instrument for the Chinese population.
China unveils steps to stabilise crisis-hit property sector
China announced significant measures to stabilize the struggling property sector. The measures included allowing local governments to purchase apartments, easing mortgage rules, and committing to finishing incomplete homes. These efforts aim to address declining demand, falling prices, and a surplus of unsold properties, with the hope of reviving a sector that once contributed significantly to the economy.
China expected to announce new measures to fix property crisis, spur growth
China's housing prices dropped in the first four months of the year, while factory output increased by almost 7%. This has lead to officials planning new measures to boost the struggling property industry. The National Bureau of Statistics noted insufficient domestic demand. The State Council announced a news conference to address the property market challenges, including defaults by developers.
Is Japanese Yen a canary in the coalmine? What it means for Bitcoin
The crisis facing the yen stems from a confluence of factors that have pushed the Bank of Japan into an economic policy corner. With a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 260%, among the highest in the world, Japan has been effectively locked into keeping interest rates at ultra-low levels, near zero, for years.
Are select metals prices indicating China’s economic revival? 5 metal stocks with upside potential of up to 23%
Few days back, there was a sudden spurt in oil prices, though they might have cooled down a bit. The question is why this sudden spurt when there has not been any rise in tension in the Middle east and it is not even the peak season where demand for heating oil could have led to sudden rise. Now combine this with price trends in some non ferrous metals like copper which have inched upward to form a one year high. While to some it might appear far-fetched at this point of time as there have been many false starts, are the commodity markets giving an indication that finally there are some green shoots in the Chinese economy? The risk is the US election result. Will the election results help in resolving the trade issue or continuation of the issues ?
Tailwinds continue to favour them; 5 Southern and Western India focussed real-estate stocks with upside potential of up to 30%
This week, two real estate companies announced that they have sold out their real estate projects. What was worth noting, the overall size of the project, time in which they were sold and the price point at which they were lapped up. Both, real estate prices and stocks of real estate have seen a revival for last three years, if above events are anything to go by than probably, it appears that the demand continues to be strong in some pockets. Given the fact that the operating matrix of the real estate industry is such that debt element will present, it would be worthwhile to stay with large players who have either strong parent group or have track record where they have survived the slowdown without piling on much debt on the balance sheet. Also stay focussed on pockets where income profile of consumer is better.
China expands access to loans for property developers, acting to end its prolonged debt crisis
China has introduced new rules aimed at expanding access to commercial bank loans for property developers, allowing them to use loans secured against commercial properties like offices and shopping malls to repay existing loans and cover operating costs. These measures are part of Beijing's broader efforts to address the real estate industry crisis.
China Evergrande liquidation hearing unexpectedly adjourned to January
On Oct. 29, at the previous adjournment, Hong Kong High Court Justice Linda Chan said Monday's hearing would be the last before a decision was made whether to liquidate Evergrande in the absence of a "concrete" restructuring plan.
Evergrande faces final chance to avoid liquidation by HK court
“If Evergrande fails to deliver an improved restructuring plan that meets the demands of the ad hoc group of creditors, the Hong Kong court is very likely to grant a winding-up order against the company,” said Lance Jiang, a partner at law firm Ashurst LLP.
China's financial reckoning: Judge Linda Chan takes center stage amid real estate giants' debt woes
Judge Linda Chan presides over an unprecedented wave of Chinese corporate defaults, holding real estate giants like Evergrande accountable. Chan's courtroom decisions, pushing for creditor recovery and challenging distressed companies, reveal the complex interplay between Hong Kong's legal system and the mainland's policies, shaping the future of China's financial landscape
Chinese developer Country Garden defaults on dollar bond
Chinese developer Country Garden Holdings Co. has been declared in default on a dollar bond for the first time, signaling its descent into distress amid China's property debt crisis. The failure to pay interest on the bond within the grace period constitutes an event of default, according to trustee Citicorp International Ltd.
Country Garden default talk swirls as offshore debt deadline passes
Country Garden reiterated on Wednesday that it expects to be unable to meet all of its offshore debt obligations and hopes to seek a "holistic" solution to its difficulties.
China's Country Garden offshore debt default looms
The repayments had not been made by early Wednesday, Reuters reported. The company last week warned of its inability to meet offshore debt obligations.
Worsening crisis at Evergrande, world's most indebted developer
The chairman of China Evergrande Group, the world's most indebted property developer, has been placed under police surveillance, raising further doubts about the company's future. Evergrande has been facing a liquidity crisis and has defaulted on offshore debt payments. The company's financial troubles have led to concerns about contagion in China's banking sector. Evergrande has been trying to restructure its debt, but a group of offshore creditors is planning to petition for the developer's liquidation if it fails to submit a new debt revamp plan.
What's in store for China Evergrande with its chairman now under police watch?
China Evergrande Group's chairman, Hui Ka Yan, has reportedly been placed under police surveillance, adding to uncertainties surrounding the company's future. Evergrande, the world's most indebted property developer, has been struggling with a liquidity crisis and the prospect of liquidation. The company has been seeking approval from creditors for a debt restructuring plan worth $31.7 billion, but a regulatory investigation into one of its Chinese units has disrupted the process.
Moody's cuts China property sector's outlook to negative
Moody's said it expected contracted sales to fall by about 5% over the next six to 12 months in China, and the impact of government measures to boost property purchases was likely to be short-lived and uneven.
More Chinese cities lift home-buying curbs to revive demand
Two major cities in eastern China, Jinan and Qingdao, have lifted all restrictions on home purchases and selling in an effort to revive the frozen property market. This follows similar moves by other cities, including Nanjing, Dalian, and Shenyang, as part of broader support measures for the struggling sector. China's property market has been in decline since 2021 due to government regulations aimed at curbing debt accumulation by developers.
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