STOCK MARKET EXPERTS ON BUDGET
Is it time to start buying IT stocks? Macquarie’s Ravi Menon explains
The IT sector anticipates growth is being driven by AI and enterprise technology spending amid concerns over interest rates and consulting demand. Companies like Tata Technologies are facing valuation challenges in the engineering services segment, contrasting with positive growth prospects for IT services, says Ravi Menon, IT Services Analyst, Macquarie.
Is a big boost to power financiers likely in Budget? Deven Choksey answers
Reliance Jio's strategic timing aligns with 5G advancements and tariff adjustments, poised to boost revenue and shareholder value. The company's emphasis on EBITDA margin growth and potential IPO plans suggest a positive outlook for unlocking shareholder value. Deven Choksey says that 12 months forward, with a Rs 1,45,000-1,50,000 crore revenue book, 55% EBITDA margin cannot be ruled out .
How stock markets have behaved before and after Budgets since 2000
As Dalal Street prepares for the upcoming Budget presentation by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman later this month, a study of market behavior since 2000 reveals that investors tend to reduce their exposure one week before and re-enter one week after Budget day. However, investing on the day before the Budget results in mixed outcomes, with a 54% chance of negative returns one month later, akin to a coin toss.
Should you prefer RR Kabel over Polycab? Amnish Aggarwal explains why
Amara Raja and Exide have re-rated with a new energy focus, positioning for growth in evolving markets. Coming to aviation IndiGo stock has given a very sharp rally over the past six months, so the incremental returns may be more measured but at the same time, the positive news flows in IndiGo will continue and that might keep the investor interest alive in the stock, says Amnish Aggarwal.
Amnish Aggarwal on 2 top cement large-cap stocks to bet on; best buy in auto
“Mahindra & Mahindra continues to be an exception where the volume growth continues to be good, both in UVs as well as if you look at the tractors, tractors after last year's decline are turning to be positive, although the valuations are rich, if a double-digit volume growth in the PV business continues, M&M can still do well from the current levels.”
Asian stocks stutter, euro gains after first round vote in France
The euro was 0.32% higher at $1.0747, while European stock futures rose 1% as exit polls showed Marine Le Pen's eurosceptic National Rally emerged ahead in the first round of the French vote but with fewer votes than some analysts had forecast.
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Should you invest or exit the stock market now?
Chandan has been an equity investor for the past 15 years and has seen a couple of market cycles. However, he is not sure what lies ahead for the equity markets.
Chakri Lokapriya on stocks to pick in cement, banking sectors
UltraTech is very well positioned. It is still the market leader. Adani on the other hand with ACC and Ambuja, is far more acquisitive. They can move on deals much faster. So, in terms of where will growth come faster from, it will be ACC and Ambuja, says Chakri Lokapriya.
Looking at a Goldilocks scenario for corporate earnings? Mukul Kochhar is betting on 3 sectors
Mukul Kochhar says growth will be structurally higher by a percent, percent-and-a-half and one factor is the current account surplus which should get us into a more stable economic growth cycle. I feel that the private capex cycle is going to be very strong and going to focus a little bit on manufacturing.
Expect one more rally in PSU, railways, defence stocks before Budget: Ajay Bagga
But few of the sectoral leaders can be looked at as well as what is happening right now is that smaller players are being bid up in anticipation that the biggies will be gobbling up the smaller players to meet their capacity expansion buildouts that they have announced.
Buy realty stocks at 15-30% correction; don’t enter defence pack now: Dipan Mehta
Dipan Mehta says that if one has missed out, then it is better to just stay away at this point. Even in bull markets, one should expect corrections and corrections are a good time to load up on stocks that have done exceptionally well and the future also is very good, very positive because of order wins or earning visibility. But in a charging bull market, in a running train like this, it does not make sense to enter.
Exide has surged 80% but still not overvalued? Sudip Bandyopadhyay explains why
Transition from IC to electric vehicle is giving a significant opportunity to the battery manufacturers. And remember, in IC, the battery used to be one component, whereas in EV that is going to be the most important component. The opportunity size for the battery manufacturer in the automobile ecosystem is going up many-many fold, says Sudip Bandyopadhyay
3 themes to bet on now for pre-Budget plays: Gurmeet Chadha
Gurmeet Chadha says that the market is trying to position on the pre-Budget period. But there are very few pockets which give a lot of valuation comfort. So, we have to be very selective in terms of what we buy and ensure that we do not end up paying very unreasonable valuations in those pockets.
Which are the best asset classes to own over 1-year, 3-year & 5 years? Nilesh Shah answers
Nilesh Shah says up to one year, he will recommend an arbitrage fund for a high taxpayer or debt funds, money market funds and short-term bond funds where one could have the limited benefit of a drop in interest rates. Between one to three years, one can go towards longer duration bond funds. Post-budget, one can also look at investment in precious metal.
Should you book your profits or stay invested as market may conquer new peaks? Nilesh Shah answers
Nilesh Shah from Kotak AMC says Indian investors are optimistic about the market but not irrational. He further emphasizes the importance of creating financial security for every Indian through capital market participation to generate real returns, addressing the low percentage of savings in above inflation return products in Indian markets.
Ajay Bagga on where to look for next market trigger and pockets to avoid now
Ajay Bagga says railways and defence sectors have already run up much and multi-year order books have been factored in. Now it is the execution challenge. So, have the investors already eaten the pie for railways and defence? Not fully, but right now there might be one more move up like we saw in railway stocks today.
Market Moves: Ashi Anand’s take on Indian IT and auto sectors
Ashi Anand, Founder and CEO of IME Capital, provides an in-depth analysis of the Indian IT and auto sectors. Anand highlighted the persistent strength in deal wins across IT companies despite weaker-than-expected revenue growth, attributing this to reduced discretionary spending.
What will be the big trade in the run-up to the Budget? Here’s what Rahul Shah has to say
Rahul Shah says that HDFC Bank has not performed well for the last so many months and we all know that there is speculation on MSCI weightage and all. If it happens, then my gut feeling is that HDFC will outperform. But if it does not happen, then SBI will definitely outperform the HDFC.
Financials to drive market for next 2 months; consumer may overtake capital goods stocks near term: Rahul Shah
Rahul Shah says that in the short term, consumer stocks might overtake capital goods stocks for some time and the small and the mid-sized capital goods in a specific area would do much better. Further, FIIs flow will continue and financials, which we were also very positive on, will continue to drive the markets for the next couple of months.
Market to be volatile and move in a fairly tight range till Budget: Dinshaw Irani
Dinshaw Irani says that Helios has been so bullish on the financial sector that they brought out a first sector dedicated fund from the house of Helios which closed on June 14; it was a financial services fund. Anyway, Helios id loading up on that particular portion as such in the and fortunately most of the stocks are in the largecap space.
Did PM Modi and Amit Shah break any Sebi rule by predicting stock market rally after elections? Legal experts weigh in
PM Modi and Amit Shah's post-election stock market rally predictions have sparked a political issue, with Rahul Gandhi linking it to the stock market crash. Legal experts say the statements do not violate Sebi rules.
Plea in SC seeks Centre, SEBI to submit report in Jun 4 stock market crash
A plea filed in the Supreme Court calls for a detailed report on the stock market crash following the election results, with losses reaching billions. The plea seeks action to strengthen regulations and protect investors, citing concerns over market volatility and lack of change despite previous directives.
Startups seek advice on IPO timing in choppy markets
Multiple new-age companies looking to go public are seeking counsel on their next moves in response to the stock market volatility following the general election results on Tuesday. These companies are looking for advice on the timing of their public listings even as they remain confident about India's macroeconomic prospects, founders, investors and investment bankers told us.
What kind of election results would shake up the markets? Seshadri Sen answers
Seshadri Sen discusses the impact of BJP's majority in the upcoming elections on the economy, focusing on manufacturing, infrastructure, and capital goods sectors. sen says the the only negative outcome for the markets is that the BJP falls considerably short of the absolute majority. All other outcomes are largely the same.
Cement, infra are key sectors to look at because of prospect of policy continuity: Pankaj Pandey
Pankaj Pandey discusses the impact of the incumbent government's majority on the market, focusing on earnings, Budget expectations, and sector performance post-elections. Pandey further says once this monsoon gets over the focus will shift towards the overall infra spend side. Cement has not seen much of a price performance and key players like ACC, Ambuja, UltraTech or JK Cement are going to experience a slightly better growth rate than the industry.
Bond market happy with RBI cheque to govt; will wait for July Budget before any move: R Sivakumar
R Sivakumar shares insights on the government budget, interest rate regime, and investment strategies in light of RBI's dividend and market optimism. Sivakumar says the bond markets have not run away and that implies markets are going to wait for the final Budget before it makes sense to draw a longer-term trend from this data.
Swaminathan Aiyar wonders how RBI managed to give Rs 2.1 lakh cr dividend to govt, says it will make a huge difference to July Budget
Finance Minister aims to reduce fiscal deficit from 5.8% to 4.5% in two years, relying on non-revenue RBI transfer. This strategy facilitates reaching 5.1% deficit this year. Challenges remain in sustaining revenue deficit reductions alongside fiscal targets. Aiyar says it is not very clear at this point what has resulted in this rise in the RBI dividend. Once we have greater clarity on that, we will be able to find out what are the consequences for different parts of the economy.
Stay put? Raise cash? What should be your portfolio strategy in runup to the Budget?
Kunj Bansal, NISM, recommends a divided investment approach, focusing on long-term and trading portfolios. He elaborates on portfolio strategies pre-Budget, the pharma sector's defensive appeal, and recent underperformance driving market interest. The IT sectoe has corrected significantly and depending on how things shape up we might see the buying interest coming back.
Not election result, if Budget doesn’t throw negative surprises, market set for a decent move: Sandip Sabharwal
Sandip Sabharwal emphasizes the importance of taxation in the upcoming Budget and advises a tactical approach with cash reserves. Sabharwal says foreign investors will return to India once it gets established that US inflation is clearly on the way down and the US dollar starts to weaken, India including all emerging markets will get substantial foreign investor flows
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