Brokered conventions
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A brokered convention occurs when a party's nominee is not selected by a majority in the first round of delegate voting at the party's nominating convention.[1] Most delegates are then permitted to vote for whichever candidate they choose, allowing for input from party leadership and political maneuvering. Additional votes are taken until a majority is reached. For this reason, brokered conventions are also known as multiple ballot or multi-ballot conventions.[2]
The term brokered convention is sometimes used interchangeably with contested convention. The latter refers to a nominating convention that opens without one candidate having captured a majority of delegates. A contested convention may be resolved on the first ballot once uncommitted delegates are factored in.[3][4][5]
History of multi-ballot and contested conventions
When delegates were selected by local party leadership, rather than by the outcome of state primaries and caucuses, brokered conventions were a regular feature of the political process. For example, the Republican Party went through 36 ballots before it selected James A. Garfield as its nominee in 1880.[6] The longest brokered convention occurred in 1924, when Democrats took 16 days and 103 ballots to nominate diplomat John W. Davis.[7][2]
As technology enabled easier communication between politicians and party insiders and the rules of delegate allocation changed (in the 1960s), the importance of the brokered convention dwindled.[8] The last brokered convention occurred in 1952 when Democrats nominated Adlai Stevenson after three ballots. Four years earlier, the Republican Party nominated Thomas Dewey in its final brokered convention.[9]
National conventions became, primarily, a ceremonial event since it was possible for a candidate to secure a majority of delegates through primaries and pledged superdelegates prior to the event.[2] Nevertheless, the possibility of a brokered convention is still regularly invoked in close primary contests.
The 1976 Republican National Convention came close when it opened as a contested convention. President Gerald Ford was able to secure enough support from uncommitted delegates, however, to earn the nomination over Ronald Reagan on the first ballot.[3][10]
When there was only a 10 percent difference in the delegate count between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2008 after 22 primaries and caucuses, rumors of a potential brokered convention grew.[11] Clinton ultimately did not concede the race until June 7, 2008, after the final primaries had occurred and Obama had secured a majority of delegates.[12][13]
Impact on general election
Democratic Party
| General election results in years with multi-ballot Democratic national conventions[14] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Number of ballots | Democratic presidential nominee | General election outcome |
| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson | Lost to Dwight D. Eisenhower |
| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | Won |
| 1924 | 103 | John Davis | Lost to Calvin Coolidge |
| 1920 | 44 | James Cox | Lost to Warren G. Harding |
| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson | Won |
| 1896 | 5 | William Jennings Bryan | Lost to William McKinley |
| 1884 | 2 | Grover Cleveland | Won |
| 1880 | 2 | Winfield Hancock | Lost to James A. Garfield |
| 1876 | 2 | Samuel Tilden | Lost to Rutherford B. Hayes |
| 1868 | 22 | Horatio Seymour | Lost to Ulysses S. Grant |
| 1860 | 59[15] | Stephen Douglas | Lost to Abraham Lincoln |
| 1856 | 17 | James Buchanan | Won |
| 1852 | 49 | Franklin Pierce | Won |
| 1848 | 4 | Lewis Cass | Lost to Zachary Taylor |
| 1844 | 9 | James K. Polk | Won |
Republican Party
| General election results in years with multi-ballot Republican national conventions[14] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Number of ballots | Republican presidential nominee | General election outcome |
| 1948 | 3 | Thomas Dewey | Lost to Harry Truman |
| 1940 | 6 | Wendell Willkie | Lost to Franklin D. Roosevelt |
| 1920 | 10 | Warren G. Harding | Won |
| 1916 | 3 | Charles Evan Hughes | Lost to Woodrow Wilson |
| 1888 | 8 | Benjamin Harrison | Won |
| 1884 | 4 | James G. Blaine | Lost to Grover Cleveland |
| 1880 | 36 | James A. Garfield | Won |
| 1876 | 7 | Rutherford B. Hayes | Won |
| 1860 | 3 | Abraham Lincoln | Won |
Conventions with vote shifts
At several nominating conventions, delegates have shifted their votes during a roll call to buttress a leading candidate. For example, the first roll call of the 1952 Republican National Convention resulted in Dwight D. Eisenhower narrowly leading Robert Taft with 595 votes to Taft's 500 votes. Before the next roll call could begin, delegates from Minnesota and several other states shifted their votes to Eisenhower to give him the majority he needed to clinch the nomination without a formal second ballot.[14]
The 1928 Democratic National Convention is another example of this phenomenon. After the first ballot, Alfred Smith was within 10 votes of the supermajority needed to win the nomination. Delegates from Ohio and several other states shifted their votes to enable Smith to become the Democratic nominee on the first ballot.[14]
| National nominating conventions with recorded vote shifts on the first ballot[14] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Party | Presidential nominee | General election outcome |
| 1980 | Democratic | Jimmy Carter | Lost to Ronald Reagan |
| 1976 | Democratic | Jimmy Carter | Won |
| 1972 | Democratic | George McGovern | Lost to Richard Nixon |
| 1968 | Republican | Richard Nixon | Won |
| 1964 | Republican | Barry Goldwater | Lost to Lyndon B. Johnson |
| 1952 | Republican | Dwight D. Eisenhower | Won |
| 1948 | Democratic | Harry Truman | Won |
| 1928 | Democratic | Al Smith | Lost to Herbert Hoover |
| 1904 | Democratic | Alton Parker | Lost to Theodore Roosevelt |
| 1864 | Democratic | George McClellan | Lost to Abraham Lincoln |
2016 election
In November 2015, Republican consultant Karl Rove predicted a brokered convention was possible in 2016, as a result of the large Republican field, the number of states that award delegates proportionally and the "fluid force" of uncommitted superdelegates. He argued in an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal that Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Donald Trump “have the message, money, organization and poll numbers to play the long game," which would increase the possibility of a brokered convention.[16]
On December 10, 2015, The Washington Post reported that the Republican National Committee had begun to make preparations for a potential brokered convention. In a meeting of 20 party officials on December 7, 2015, “the groundwork for a floor fight” against Trump was reportedly discussed. In response, Trump said he would be "disadvantaged" if one occurred. "I'd be going up against guys who grew up with each other, who know each other intimately and I don’t know who they are, okay? That’s a big disadvantage," Trump explained.[17]
In a statement on December 11, 2015, Carson threatened to leave the Republican Party if the party’s leadership met again to discuss using a brokered convention to guide the outcome of the primary election. “If this was the beginning of the plan to subvert the will of the voters and replace them with the will of the political elite, I assure you Donald Trump will not be the only one leaving the party,” Carson wrote. In an interview on Fox News later in the day, Carson clarified that he would not run as a third-party candidate.[18][19]
Mitt Romney supporters have also reportedly "mapped out a strategy for a late entry to pick up delegates and vie for the nomination in a convention fight, according to the Republicans who were briefed on the talks."[20]
On March 3, 2016, Romney publicly condemned Trump's candidacy and encouraged voters to support Marco Rubio and John Kasich in their respective home states of Florida and Ohio. Reuters reported, "By calling for targeted voting, Romney was setting up the possibility of a contested convention when Republicans gather in Cleveland in mid-July to select their nominee for the November election to succeed Democratic President Barack Obama. That could create a pathway to deny Trump the 1,237 delegates needed for nomination."[21]
The following day, Ted Cruz argued against a brokered convention. He said, "A brokered convention is the pipe-dream of the Washington establishment. It is their hope they can snatch this nomination from the people. ... If the Washington deal-makers try to steal the nomination from the people, I think it will be a disaster. It will cause a revolt.”[22]
John Kasich appeared to support the possibility of a brokered convention while speaking to reporters on March 7, 2016. He said that he would not need a plurality of delegates to be competitive for the Republican presidential nomination. "The delegates will be smart, and they’ll figure it out. I was at a convention where Ronald Reagan challenged Gerald Ford. Ford won and the party was unified. But, you know, to say – I have more than you, therefore I should get it? Go out and earn it! Don’t be whining about how it’s gonna work. Go get what you need to be the legitimate winner!" Kasich said.[23]
See also
- 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential election, 2016
- Open primary
- Closed primary
Footnotes
- ↑ Financial Times, "Definition of brokered convention," accessed January 28, 2016
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 Congressional Research Service, "The Presidential Nominating Process and the National Party Conventions, 2016: Frequently Asked Questions," December 30, 2015
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 CNN, "What is a 'brokered convention'? Here is a (kind of) simple explanation," December 11, 2015
- ↑ USA Today, "A contested GOP convention — political junkie's dream, politico's nightmare," January 20, 2016
- ↑ CNN, "Ford Is Close, but Watch Those Trojan Horses," August 2, 1976
- ↑ Miller Center for Public Affairs, "The Campaign and Election of 1880," accessed January 28. 2016
- ↑ The Christian Science Monitor, "Democratic National Convention: a wild ride in 1924," September 6, 2012
- ↑ National Review, "No, There Won’t Be a Brokered Republican National Convention," December 18, 2015
- ↑ RealClearPolitics, "A Brokered Convention in 2016: Why It Might Happen, What It Might Mean," December 22, 2015
- ↑ The New York Times, "For Republicans, Contested 1976 Convention Looms Over 2016 Race," December 11, 2015
- ↑ San Francisco Chronicle, "Brokered Dem convention looking more likely," February 7, 2008
- ↑ McClatchy DC, "How Barack Obama won the nomination," June 3, 2008
- ↑ The New York Times, "Hillary Clinton Endorses Barack Obama," June 7, 2008
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 Congressional Quarterly. (2005). National Party Conventions: 1831-2004. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.
- ↑ Democrats held two nominating conventions in 1860. At the first convention in Charleston, there were 57 ballots. The second convention in Baltimore had two ballots.
- ↑ The Wall Street Journal, "The Path to a Wild GOP Convention," November 4, 2015
- ↑ The Washington Post, "GOP preparing for contested convention," December 10, 2015
- ↑ Talking Points Memo, "Carson Threatens To Leave Party If GOP Officials Keep Plotting Over Convention," December 11, 2015
- ↑ Fox News, "Carson Threatens to Leave GOP: 'I Don't Want to Be a Part of Corruption,'" December 11, 2015
- ↑ BuzzFeed, "The Secret Plan To Nominate Mitt Romney From The Convention Floor," December 11, 2015
- ↑ Reuters, "Republican Romney calls Trump 'a fraud,' creates pathway to contested convention," March 3, 2016
- ↑ The Daily Caller, "Cruz: A Contested Convention Would Start A Revolt," March 4, 2016
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Kasich: I wouldn’t need a delegate lead to win at a brokered convention," March 7, 2016
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